We have people complaining that the current Model S fob is to intrusive as it is. I doubt many people are willing to carry around a tablet as a key.
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Gen III - summary
- Thread starter DuncanWatson
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- Model 3
We have people complaining that the current Model S fob is to intrusive as it is. I doubt many people are willing to carry around a tablet as a key.
favo
P3D+ owner
A removable iPad as screen sounds like a target for thieves, since most people wouldn't want to carry it around regularly. It might make sense to have a modular processor (CPU/GPU) for future upgradability, though.
I was surprised to hear the late 2016 Gen III date as well. Since the Gen III price depends on the gigafactory producing batteries that target date sounds like a real challenge. Can they build the factory from breaking ground to full production in two years? I hope so. But the factory sites have not been finalized yet. Hoping they are announced this month!
Nothing wrong with setting ambitious goals and challenging time frames. That's how tough projects are accomplished. I bet the Gen III will enter production in 2017.
They're looking to break ground this month.
My guess is that Gen3 will happen end of 2016 or early 2017, but that the first year of production will be relatively low volume (50-100k).
physicsfita
Member
I hope that date is accurate, since my trusty Prius will have about 400000 mi by then, and I don't know how much longer it would last. (Oh, well, Plan B is a Volt...)
That said, the concept car is supposed to be revealed at the Detroit auto show in January 2015 -- I am hard-pressed to imagine that it can make it from concept car to prototype to getting all its certifications to being in at least limited production and shipping by December 2016. The Model X couldn't hit that timeline, and it shares a common platform with the Model S. Gen III is a different platform, which is just going to add to the complexity.
That said, the concept car is supposed to be revealed at the Detroit auto show in January 2015 -- I am hard-pressed to imagine that it can make it from concept car to prototype to getting all its certifications to being in at least limited production and shipping by December 2016. The Model X couldn't hit that timeline, and it shares a common platform with the Model S. Gen III is a different platform, which is just going to add to the complexity.
Tesla has back pedaled on the Detroit auto show unveiling so I would expect a concept car late next year.
physicsfita
Member
Bummer -- I was hoping to see it there. If the concept car is being pushed back to late 2015, that leads me to think that we won't see the car shipping before 2018 at the earliest. :crying:
Yep. Gigafactory could start off with small production by end of 2016 and scale as they increase Gen3 production into 2018.
I think there is a difference between back pedaling and not willing to commit.
In my interpretation Tesla is working with an internal target to have the Gen3 prototype ready by Q1 2015 - Detorit and Geneva are in that time frame. Hans let it slip, and they were quick to say there is no official date as they do not want to publicly commit to a anything that specific just yet. But the company's chief designer is probably one of those 5 people in the know, in fact on a day to day basis he may even be more up to date then Elon, who is juggling 2 companies and probably gets weekly/monthly reports.
Having said that, Elon's latest comments last week at the shareholder meeting, still talking about a late 2016 production for Gen3, tell me they gotta have the first prototype ready a year from now at the latest. In fact probably earlier than that. So Detroit or Geneva next year is certainly a possibility.
the best and most effect way to build said giga factory is with tilt up walls. the reason behind this is most of the walls can be pre-made and trucked in. the whole building of this should be about 6 months IF they are running day and night. but with that said it put pressure on the equipment builder to speed up there production as well. I suspect that when its finished it will be sooner rather than later. hell from what i have heard in the construction business they give time bonuses for getting it done faster. keep in mind that an inspector has to make sure its done correctly. I believe they can get the solar panels, wind farm and construction done all at the same time. its just how many people you want to throw at it.
The shell of the building is easy. It's the equipment inside that takes time and money. Hopefully they can parallelize the process, having equipment manufactured offsite while the building is under construction, then trucking (or railroading) the equipment in when it's ready. The timing of this kind of thing is a challenge too. You don't want to spend money on equipment too soon and have that capital laying around not generating a return. Or, for those of us who own TSLA, WE don't want to have OUR capital laying around!
On the timing of Gen 3:
Model S prototype unveiling was Q1 2009, first deliveries Q4 2012, call it 3.5 years.
Model X prototype unveiling was Q1 2012, first deliveries Q1 2015? A little less than 3 years, and Model X was "easy" because it's based on the Model S architecture.
Gen 3 prototype unveiling Q1 2015? 3 years puts us in 2018. Sure, Tesla learns a lot from each project and hopefully can get faster. But they also need time for the battery cost to come down so that they can hit total vehicle cost target.
We might see development mules on the road in 2016 but I really don't expect customer deliveries before 2017.
hockeythug
Active Member
igotzzoom
Active Member
I'm actually OK with 2018. I'm a month away from having my Sonata paid off. Four years without car payments isn't the worst thing. If it does 0-60 in around 6 flat, 200 mi range, and out-the-door for under $45k, I'll be happy.
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