What's your best guess on if and when the tech of the Cybertruck(4 Wheel Steer By Wire, 4860 structural battery pack, 48V architecture) will be incorporated in the Model S?
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Future Model S?
- Thread starter bishoppeak
- Start date
Tam
Well-Known Member
My issue is range. In theory, that would boost Cybertruck to 500+ miles, but in practice, it's only 340 miles.
The same high hope to boost the Model Y to a much higher range but its 4680 structural battery pack architecture was rated for 279 miles.
Tam
Well-Known Member
I don’t know. It's possible that 4680 would yield more range so Tesla use fewer cells and resulted in only 279 miles for Model Y.
That could mean Model Y could go 500+ miles too but maybe there are not enough 4680 in circulation.
Tesla Model S Plaid+ was rated for 520+ miles but its production was canceled because "There are essentially zero trips above 400 miles where the driver doesn’t need to stop for restroom, food, coffee, etc. anyway."
In the meantime, Lucid uses conventional cells from LG 21700, and its top range is 520 miles for Dream Edition and 516 miles for Grand Touring.
What I try to say is: Theory might be promising but what counts is can the theory can be commercialized in a real production line?
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I thought Tesla had a long term contract with Panasonic for 18650 format cells. Maybe it's related to that or some other engineering decision I'm not aware of.
I believe with Cybertruck, Semi, and some Model Y production they might not have enough capacity for Model S and Y (and I think a redesign of car would be needed anyway). 4680 cell production from Panasonic also delayed. Panasonic delays Tesla 4680 battery cell production
Also it looks like Model Y could possibly have a 500 mile range if Tesla loaded it with 4680 cells
www.drive.com.au
Tesla Model Y price to fall with next-generation 4680 battery – report
Tesla’s advanced next-generation battery is expected to provide more range and power at a lower cost, once its availability is expanded – providing the electric-car giant can overcome production setbacks.
www.drive.com.au
That's probably not true. The teardowns showed the Model Y with 4680s was packed to the brim, I don't think there's any way they could nearly double the rangeAlso it looks like Model Y could possibly have a 500 mile range if Tesla loaded it with 4680 cells
Tesla Model Y price to fall with next-generation 4680 battery – report
Tesla’s advanced next-generation battery is expected to provide more range and power at a lower cost, once its availability is expanded – providing the electric-car giant can overcome production setbacks.
6 years
Model S doesn't matter, to be blunt. It's niche. Not a huge driver of revenue. Doing (another) full redesign is behind so many things in priority: CT ramp, 4680 ramp, Semi ramp, Model 2 start of production (this might be the most important), Model Y "Juniper" (equivalent of the highland refresh for Y), etc
Model S doesn't matter, to be blunt. It's niche. Not a huge driver of revenue. Doing (another) full redesign is behind so many things in priority: CT ramp, 4680 ramp, Semi ramp, Model 2 start of production (this might be the most important), Model Y "Juniper" (equivalent of the highland refresh for Y), etc
That's like saying $8.1 billion does not matter. It does not pass the smell test. That is 10% of annual revenue in 2022. Model Y and likely 3 are tapering in sales, I think the market is saturated. What is going to replace $8.1 billion in annual sales?
They need spread across all price points from Model 2 to Model S.
They need spread across all price points from Model 2 to Model S.
I think S and X have to stay and keep up. They are symbols. A lot of buyers see an X but can’t afford one and buy a Y. Tesla needs bragging rights Fastest SUV fastest 4 door sedan. They may not have highest direct sales but they impact sales indirectly. A lot of buyers buy say a 3 knowing an S might be something later. They may never get the S but it influenced them getting the 3.
As you may know kids know Teslas and they look at the most flashy versions. But they when they become customers they might settle for 3/Y initially anyway.
Same reason why GM has the corvette. Kids would buy the MaythBox Corvette, but would unlikely buy the Vega. But they would buy the best GM they can afford.
S/X were not designed for the 4680, so probably never.
More likely than not they will get a cell upgrade when Panasonic is ready. If history is a judge, the Raven and Palladium refreshes both happened in the Fall of each respective year, 2019 and 2021, so maybe this Fall 2024. Doubt they get 4WS as the chassis was not designed to accommodate, maybe on steer-by-wire since that is what should have come with the original yoke.
It's more probable that the Model 2/cheapo Tesla will have refreshed 2170's or 4680's to keep costs low but that presupposes that Tesla can manufacture the 4680's in sufficient volumes to cover current demand for Cybertruck and Model Y before adding a third vehicle requiring those battery supplies.
Just a hunch.
More likely than not they will get a cell upgrade when Panasonic is ready. If history is a judge, the Raven and Palladium refreshes both happened in the Fall of each respective year, 2019 and 2021, so maybe this Fall 2024. Doubt they get 4WS as the chassis was not designed to accommodate, maybe on steer-by-wire since that is what should have come with the original yoke.
It's more probable that the Model 2/cheapo Tesla will have refreshed 2170's or 4680's to keep costs low but that presupposes that Tesla can manufacture the 4680's in sufficient volumes to cover current demand for Cybertruck and Model Y before adding a third vehicle requiring those battery supplies.
Just a hunch.
You just have to keep in the mind that the S & X are not the money makers for Tesla. It makes more financial sense for them to focus on the vehicles that are making the most money for the company (Model 3, Model Y, new 25k model). As a result, I don't see these changes coming for the forseeable future.
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