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Elon & Twitter

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Yes hopefully he wakes up and brings Twitter to Texas and away from an an expensive, crime ridden place where he no longer feels represented but is still taxed like he is.

Texas has a higher crime rate than California. So maybe he needs to move it to Mass?
 
Often on the investors thread, there would be anecdotes of how some poster's acquaintance took a test drive in a Tesla and was "blown away".....immediate converts to the Tesla family. Those anecdotes were met positively and were affirmation of our own enthusiasm for Tesla products.

Now there are frequent anecdotes of potential lost sales due to prospective customers refusing to buy Telsa's because they find Elon Musk's behavior repellant. I personally know of 2 lost sales in the last 5 days for example.

Anecdotes aren't scientific data, but if you were excited to hear about the positive anecdotes back in the day, you should consider why you are willing to dismiss the negative ones now. Moreover, there is increasing (non-anecdotal) data about brand erosion in the last few months.
Meh. There were plenty of negative anecdotes from the start. And there are still plenty of positive anecdotes today.
 
Tesla has compelling products that will sell themselves for a while.
Will the product become less compelling over time? As far as I can tell the gap between Tesla and the competition is growing except for competitors claiming low-hanging fruit such as making EVs with more than 200 miles of range (albeit at negative gross margin in most cases most likely). The tear downs from Munro Live reveal how stark the gap actually is.

Sales are in good shape for now. But if your argument is that Elon's antics aren't making an impact, that is just as flawed as your comparison of $AMZN and $TSLA.
I did not compare just TSLA and AMZN. Check my post again. I compared TSLA to the macros, and the entire tech and automotive sectors, excluding AAPL which is the *only* one that’s significantly outperformed in the last two years. Again, this observed coupling has not changed significantly since the last big TSLA rally in 2020. The whole time since has been TSLA whipsawing around with volatile macros and its high beta.

I presented high quality data on demand and sales. There is even more data if you want to look at other areas like Washington state which has similar Tesla and EV sales dynamics as CA. I have seen the increase with my own eyes living in Seattle for the past six years. These are hard econometric facts. What do you have other than conjecture based on intuition, speculation and anecdotes? I’ll change my mind if there’s good information presented to me.

Tesla has 11% market share in the largest car market in America. This figure includes the millions of people living in smaller towns and rural areas of California, where Tesla sells far fewer cars. Depending on exactly how we estimate the bias towards the Bay Area and SoCal, it’s roughly 20% or maybe even 40% Tesla market share for new vehicles in those metro areas.

This is happening:
  • with high average selling prices and no economy cars on offer
    • Tesla’s sole car for America’s most popular vehicle type (crossover SUVs) is the $65k+ Model Y.
  • with much of the populace still unaware of the value proposition offered by these compelling products that sell themselves
  • without Tesla advertising
  • with a much smaller and worse Supercharger network than we will have in 2030
  • without Tesla offering any pickup trucks, large SUVs, minivans, small sedans, small hatchbacks, vans, or any cars with a different aesthetic styling than Tesla's sleek aerofoil rounded body shape
  • heavy bias for the major Californian urbanized areas
The 3 and Y outsell the COMBINED rest of the competing products in their specific segments in California.

Yes, both companies have had similar stock performance in the last year. However, Tesla the company has executed far better and has better future prospects than Amazon. $TSLA should be outperforming $AMZN.
This was also true in 2019, 2020, and 2021. The market has been misunderstanding Tesla's fundamentals since the company IPOed. That's a huge reason why I'm still invested; it's still deeply undervalued.

Similarly, sales in the near term might be robust, but that doesn't mean that Elon's antics aren't having an impact. Relative to what Tesla could be, this has had an impact.
Do you have convincing statistical evidence of this assertion and the relative size of the supposed impact compared to other factors? The overall econometrics show rising prices and quantities which normally indicates rising demand, so it clearly hasn't mattered much yet.

Perhaps they could not sell any more cars in the near term than they make, but they could maintain higher prices with greater demand. Brand erosion will have an influence in the medium term. In the longer term, this will limit the total addressable market. That 20M car sales per annum in 2030 has been made much more difficult. The long term growth story has an impact in today's share price.
20M vehicles per year in 2030 would be approximately 20-25% market share at 80-100M total global vehicle sales. Considering that the Californian market has been a leading indicator for global EV and Tesla adoption since literal day one, I infer that Tesla will have no trouble reaching adequate demand for 20M per year once cheaper models are available for the mass market segments, assuming the competitors don’t miraculously show up and start doing a lot better on EVs than they have been for the entire 21st century thus far.

Americans and Europeans went to war with the Nazi Germany, fascist Italy and Imperial Japan, yet today car companies from these countries are highly successful selling in these markets. It doesn't get more political than deciding whether to drop nuclear bombs on civilians in order to stop a government from pursuing goals. VW and Porsche were founded by actual Nazis and Ferdinand Porsche came to Germany to do this at the personal request of Hitler himself, who worked directly with him to help with these endeavors. The Porsche-Piech family still has this blood money by the way, as well as controlling voting stakes in both VW Group and Porsche. They never gave it away or donated it to holocaust survivors or anything like that. VW got caught committing intentional mass murder less than a decade ago but they’re still selling almost 10M cars per year. GM fleeced American taxpayers in 2009 with huge bailouts that they still haven’t paid back, but the Silverado is still selling.

Despite this direct evidence that people can look past terrible corporate behavior by car companies and still buy millions of cars, we are seriously pulling our hair out over nonviolent tweeting about controversial subjects as though demand will, at some indeterminate point in the future, be materially impacted by this? If Tesla sells 20M cars instead of 22M because of this I’m not going to be crying about it. Elon also won’t be around forever and if things go remotely according to plan then he’ll be a lot more focused on Mars five to ten years from now than on Tesla, Twitter or US politics.
 
I don't know about that. Their contention was .... he is a fraud.

There was a recent interview of Kara Swisher with Mehdi Hasan that I think summed up Elon well. She says EM behaves like a reasonable business executive most of the time .... but is autocratic 10-20% of the time.

Well, he is only human. That may be a shock to some?
 
As I alluded to, the Chinese citizen is pretty much woke-free. There are no social justice warriors, no activists, no partisan blabbering about nonsense. Everyone just want to better their lives through their own hard work. The Chinese rarely blames anything for their own destiny except themselves. No one plays victim hood like they are being marginalized and require any social warrior justice to help them either.

Now I'm not saying woke free is great either. It's high in productivity and there are people who suffers but are used to it. Like for example, are Chinese people racist? Yes 99% of them are racist or classest. People are being marginalized, just that no one complains about it. There are millions of people who are being treated unfairly, except they don't complain but just accept the way it is.

What is going on in the US is woke gone wild. It's way overdone to the point that nothing can be done anymore before someone calls you a slave driving fascist. This needs to be toned down.

A lot of vague ideas thrown out, no actual, concrete examples.

Are you saying we should strive to be more like the Chinese? Or at least, that's Elon position?

Anyway, not sure what "needs to be toned down." People who are advocating for a more equitable society should..."shut up and take it?"

Like I said, most of the "anti-woke rants" don't include facts, statistics, or very many examples. Or even very many solutions other than, "people I don't like should stop doing things I don't like."
 
What is going on in the US is woke gone wild.
No it's a few "anti woke" people amplifying the "threat" and pretending it's a real problem when it's not. It's easier to create fake "issues" than address the real ones. I'm not saying that some on the left haven't taken it too far, they have of course, that's what people always do, but the focus on those few is unwarranted.
 

"Climate change is the biggest threat that humanity faces this century, except for AI," Musk said in an interview with Rolling Stone.



I cannot keep up. Is the "greatest threat to humanity" climate change, AI, falling birth rates, or the woke mind virus?

Seems like Elon simply doesn't understand the absolutes of the English language - never, always, greatest, etc.
 
People are being marginalized, just that no one complains about it.


Are you nuts? (sorry, reading your post gave me that instant reaction). Sorta like in all those youtube videos in Russia about "I have no comments on that (they can't even say war)), no one comments and takes a political stance in china because people simply can't (if they don't want to be in jail).

Edit: Please reread your post again honestly. I guess no one complained during Tianemen square, no one complained in Hong Kong, no one left HK for Canada/UK/etc recently.


People also don't complain in China because if you do, you simply disappear. I agree with you on some of your points, but stating that China has it so great and everyone is so productive because they have to work in bad conditions just shows how great a lot of folks in America has it. Most immigrants coming from war-torn nations will certainly work harder than what you called woke folks because folks want to also improve their lives in America, but what you're spouting off sounds just so entitled or priviledged to me.


The way you talk makes it sound like o, slavery, people don't complain about it because anyone who did died or were killed. Slaves are so productive since we only have to feed them and even then, it's minimal food/water. American workers are crap because they want a basic living wage....so woke, so bad of Americans...(that's what you sound like to me).


China has made billionaires less wealthy or simply locked anyone who complains so this is just a bad position to stand on I feel.
 
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Texas has a higher crime rate than California. So maybe he needs to move it to Mass?
Here's some more statistics for you:

List of United States cities by crime rate

Now sort the table ascending by Total - Yearly Crime Rates per 100,000 people, see where Austin is at? #37, with a yearly crime rates per 100k people of 3612.23.

See where San Francisco is at? #94, with a yearly crime rates per 100k people of 6917.4, i.e. nearly 2x more crimes than Austin.
 
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