Elon: Model X Q2 Production 1,000 per week

[Red Sage]

^ False dichotomy. These things aren't exclusive.

Hunh? Well... I supposed that missing a deadline could be fatal... If you work for the Yakuza.

 

[stopcrazypp]

^ False dichotomy. These things aren't exclusive.

Most definitely not exclusive (I am assuming you are talking about deadlines vs compelling car) but definitely related. A lot of Tesla's delays are because Elon's insistence on features on the car (Model X doors and windshield being the most recent examples).

 

[CarlK]

I have to agree, Elon doesn't wan't to compromise design. Even if that means missing deadlines, having a compelling product is way more important. However the stock market sure doesn't like him missing deadlines.

I always say if Elon has one fault that would be he does not have the ability to make anything that is merely good. That's a fault in common people's eyes but the paid off would be tremendous when he succeded. He wanted to make Paypal a world dominate internet financial company but investors balked because they want to turn a fast profit. Now a lot of people think there were actually that opportunity because it was so ahead of everyone else and Paypal could have been a much bigger company than it is today if they went along.

 

[1208]

I always say if Elon has one fault that would be he does not have the ability to make anything that is merely good. That's a fault in common people's eyes but the paid off would be tremendous when he succeded. He wanted to make Paypal a world dominate internet financial company but investors balked because they want to turn a fast profit. Now a lot of people think there were actually that opportunity because it was so ahead of everyone else and Paypal could have been a much bigger company than it is today if they went along.

He's got to learn to bodge.:biggrin:

 

[ohmman]

I think we all want the same thing for Tesla. Personally I prefer to look critically (not to be confused with pessimistically) at the business and be as honest as possible. Using logical fallacies to give myself a "feel good" impression doesn't work for me. I've only encountered one business that thrives on an uncritical customer base - religion.

Since mass appears to be in session, I'll bow out.

 

[ankitmishra]

^ False dichotomy. These things aren't exclusive.

This is the source of the difference of opinion that people are having over Tesla. In order to create a great product, be it a great car, movie, music, scientific discovery etc etc require extraordinary efforts. When someone us trying to create something great and original, they come across unforeseen circumstances, time isn't in their control then. If they worry about time, it will only damage the products quality then. But hey, its my opinion and I maybe wrong.

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I think we all want the same thing for Tesla. Personally I prefer to look critically (not to be confused with pessimistically) at the business and be as honest as possible. Using logical fallacies to give myself a "feel good" impression doesn't work for me. I've only encountered one business that thrives on an uncritical customer base - religion.

Since mass appears to be in session, I'll bow out.

When I think about things which also include Tesla, I also tend to be honest. I also tend to rely on logic. Though my logic and knowledge is based on my experiences in my life. It is unfortunate to assume that people from other school of thought are illogical, dishonest or ignoring glaring problems just to feel good. It is also unfortunate to take the analogy of religion to explain someone's disagreement with you. But hey, maybe people supporting Tesla might be wrong, who knows.

 

[eloder]

How many years does a company have to be in business to be considered out of the 'start up' category?

Well, they are something like 1/50th the age of the next youngest automaker out there.

 

[CTemp222]

But hey, maybe people supporting Tesla might be wrong, who knows.

I think in general we're all supporters of Tesla but we just have different expectations from Elon and the company.

 

[Marcos]

How many years does a company have to be in business to be considered out of the 'start up' category?.

I'd say when they no longer need to build core infrastructure, like battery factories and car factories and ... part factories? Once their production infrastructure is in place and they can focus on just building cars, THEN they'll no longer be a startup.

The whole point of the term "startup" is that you don't have any established infrastructure, so you have to build it from scratch. Tesla is certainly still building from scratch.

 

[CarlK]

I'd say when they no longer need to build core infrastructure, like battery factories and car factories and ... part factories? Once their production infrastructure is in place and they can focus on just building cars, THEN they'll no longer be a startup.

The whole point of the term "startup" is that you don't have any established infrastructure, so you have to build it from scratch. Tesla is certainly still building from scratch.

That is a pretty good definition. A company that kept on going into new territories can also be looked at as a start up no matter how long it's been there or how large it has become.

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He's got to learn to bodge.:biggrin:

Please don't give him the idea. :biggrin:

 

[nienco2]

I think we all want the same thing for Tesla. Personally I prefer to look critically (not to be confused with pessimistically) at the business and be as honest as possible. Using logical fallacies to give myself a "feel good" impression doesn't work for me. I've only encountered one business that thrives on an uncritical customer base - religion.

^ too sensible my friend :wink:

 

[Dollartile]

public statements that are factually incorrect by a CEO of a public company are material information and should not and can not be estimates. Elon is desperately trying to save the stock price now that the investors have figured out that the company has designed a product that can not be built. Elon should quit speaking because most everything that comes out of his mouth is wishful thinking, which isn't a bad thing if he wants to dream and fantasize about the future - but fantasy estimates and wishful thinking has no place as material information from an insider and executive of a publicly traded company. If he continues to do it, it actually is a criminal offense and at a minimum he could lose his position with the company if the board of directors has any balls.

I know ankit loves his/her rose colored glasses but successful companies do not engage in estimates and fantasies and they don't design mass produced products that can not be mass produced.

I have seen 3 Model X's on the road - the Falcon wing doors on all 3 are grossly mis-aligned and not befitting of a $150,000 automobile.

Elon needs to quit confusing his wishful think with material statements - if he wants to engage in pushing us to places we need to go he should do it in the context of a big thinker rather than as CEO making material statements that his company can not follow through on.

I like most of Elon's ideas, and he is quite good at predicting the future, but is extremely lousy at providing an accurate schedule and reasonable estimates. He also tends to engage in overdesign and does not respect people's investments in his products - by rev'ing them so quickly and so often he routinely accelerates depreciation of his customer's capital purchases and disrupts the market by claiming to deliver technologies that really can't be delivered on a schedule or to the fantasy specifications he claims.

elon is a great guy, but we just cant beleive everything this man says. haha

 

[Blastphemy]

Starting to think I agree with you, Dollartile. How could Tesla actually be building so many Model X each week when so few are being delivered (or even being seen at the factory)? No new VINs for something like four weeks, cars that went into production in January still in production, and Sigs reservation holders without delivery nor any realistic estimate for such.

"Something is rotten in the state of Denmark" - Hamlet

 

[dhanson865]

elon is a great guy, but we just cant believe everything this man says. haha

Starting to think I agree with you, Dollartile. How could Tesla actually be building so many Model X each week when so few are being delivered (or even being seen at the factory)? No new VINs for something like four weeks, cars that went into production in January still in production, and Sigs reservation holders without delivery nor any realistic estimate for such.

"Something is rotten in the state of Denmark" - Hamlet

???

Just a quick sanity check. The thread title mentions 1000 per week in Q2. Q2 is Arpil-May-June and the 1000 per is the max not the minimum or average.

It's currently February. So he hasn't said squat about Q1 production numbers. You'll have to wait for Q2 earnings call to find out how many they make in Q1.

as in nothing Elon said about Q2 can be considered incorrect or a lie about Q1. It's a different time period.

 

[Skotty]

I think they need to be careful with what they say and what they promise. However, I will also say this -- a missed deadline is remembered for awhile, a poor product is remembered forever. If Yugo had missed a bunch of deadlines to revise their product into something of quality, would anyone today remember the delays?

 

[stopcrazypp]

I think they need to be careful with what they say and what they promise. However, I will also say this -- a missed deadline is remembered for awhile, a poor product is remembered forever. If Yugo had missed a bunch of deadlines to revise their product into something of quality, would anyone today remember the delays?

That was what I was getting at with my previous comments in this thread, even though it was dismissed as a logical fallacy that meeting deadlines and coming out with a good product is not mutually exclusive.

 

[Blastphemy]

Just a quick sanity check. The thread title mentions 1000 per week in Q2. Q2 is Arpil-May-June and the 1000 per is the max not the minimum or average.

If Tesla was producing even 250 cars per week this year, all 1,200 Sigs and the first ~500 Production cars would already be in customers' hands. But there's no evidence of that many deliveries occurring. And the excuse that deliveries are slower than production doesn't hold water, as that would mean exponential levels of undelivered inventory sitting at the factory.

I doubt we'll see a single week in Q2 that achieves 1,000 Model Xs produced (or even comes close).

 

[roblab]

If Tesla was producing even 250 cars per week this year, all 1,200 Sigs and the first ~500 Production cars would already be in customers' hands. But there's no evidence of that many deliveries occurring. And the excuse that deliveries are slower than production doesn't hold water, as that would mean exponential levels of undelivered inventory sitting at the factory.

I doubt we'll see a single week in Q2 that achieves 1,000 Model Xs produced (or even comes close).

Why would you say that? Have you never heard of ramping up? When I bought my Signature S, they were making less than 50 a week. I got mine 3 months after startup, #8 after engineers and founders. Now it's working on a thousand per week. In the mean time the company has grown, added a new production line (which I have seen), trained hundreds of people, built superchargers (I have seen them, so I know it's true) and started a gigafactory (which I have also seen). Why is it not possible for them to ramp up to 1000 by June 30?

And more importantly, what does it matter to you? For the last four or five years, we have watched Elon telling us what he envisioned. His visions have pretty much always been fulfilled, although it takes more time for the impossible. So are you losing a bet and are grouching? I don't mean just you, but why the upset? Do you complainers have money involved?

There's also a thread here about people getting their production Xs. My daughter has ordered her X, # 12680 or so. I am not crazy enough to think this means it should already be sitting in her driveway, but i believe it will eventually show up.

It's good we have somebody we can now go to who knows more than Elon and is willing to tell the truth so people will not buy this horrible product built by a factory full of liars and loafers.

 

[X Fan]

elon is a great guy, but we just cant beleive everything this man says. haha

I'm assuming he's smart enough to realize that there is a cottage industry out there making big bucks going after public company mis-statements.

 

[AlMc]

If Tesla was producing even 250 cars per week this year, all 1,200 Sigs and the first ~500 Production cars would already be in customers' hands. But there's no evidence of that many deliveries occurring. And the excuse that deliveries are slower than production doesn't hold water, as that would mean exponential levels of undelivered inventory sitting at the factory.

I doubt we'll see a single week in Q2 that achieves 1,000 Model Xs produced (or even comes close).

Why would you say that? Have you never heard of ramping up? When I bought my Signature S, they were making less than 50 a week. I got mine 3 months after startup, #8 after engineers and founders. Now it's working on a thousand per week. In the mean time the company has grown, added a new production line (which I have seen), trained hundreds of people, built superchargers (I have seen them, so I know it's true) and started a gigafactory (which I have also seen). Why is it not possible for them to ramp up to 1000 by June 30?

And more importantly, what does it matter to you? For the last four or five years, we have watched Elon telling us what he envisioned. His visions have pretty much always been fulfilled, although it takes more time for the impossible. So are you losing a bet and are grouching? I don't mean just you, but why the upset? Do you complainers have money involved?

There's also a thread here about people getting their production Xs. My daughter has ordered her X, # 12680 or so. I am not crazy enough to think this means it should already be sitting in her driveway, but i believe it will eventually show up.

It's good we have somebody we can now go to who knows more than Elon and is willing to tell the truth so people will not buy this horrible product built by a factory full of liars and loafers.

Well, one of you will right and the other wrong. By June 30th we will know. The 1,000/week of X production is a challenge. Hope it can be met. Regardless of our opinions about whether it can be done is stockholders, purchasers of TM vehicles and people who just want to see the decline of ICE vehicles/helping the planet/our children...TM/EM needs to as he says..make 'a win feel like a win' and hit self imposed deadlines.