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Electrify Everything

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But around the country, utility companies are using their outsize political power to slow down the clean energy transition, and they are probably using your money to do it.

Most electric utilities view distributed energy — technologies owned by customers that generate electricity in smaller amounts — as a threat to their business. They have tried for years to stop their customers in many states from investing in rooftop solar by rigging rates to make it less economically attractive. They’ve also funded opposition to policies that would speed clean energy.

Utilities also have also fought to cling to plants powered by fossil fuels as long as possible. In Ohio the utility FirstEnergy concealed $60 million in bribes through a web of dark-money groups to the political organization of the state’s speaker of the House. Before his conviction and sentencing for this instance of racketeering, he helped pass a law that secured a $1.3 billion ratepayer-funded bailout for FirstEnergy’s bankrupt nuclear and coal plants, gutted the state’s renewable energy and energy efficiency standards for utilities and bailed out coal plants owned by other utilities. Audits showed that FirstEnergy used money collected from ratepayers in its scheme.
 
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Project Symphony is the brainchild of Dr Andrew Mears. Its aim is to bring energy security to the edges of the grid. It uses a distributed energy management technology platform to make better use of existing energy-producing assets. Dr Mears pioneered the technology while working with isolated communities in the Kalahari Desert of Botswana. According to modeling by Dr Gabrielle Kuiper, it could “put the duck (curve) to sleep.”


This modelling found that “rooftop solar plus battery trading reduces the 4-8 pm wholesale market evening peak by an impressive 67–92%. In addition to this, where local ‘trading’ is made ‘frictionless’, household batteries reduce the average summer network peak by 64%.” These flows would be best facilitated by software rather than building more transmission lines
 
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Qian Zhonhyan, the legal representative behind the new aviation unit and director of the COMAC research institute, was the chief designer of China’s first domestic large passenger aircraft, the C919. According to corporate data, the firm will focus on designing and producing civil aircraft components, including engines and propellers. Although CATL has yet to comment on the news, the EV maker is expected to use its new condensed batteries to power electric airplanes.

CATL unveiled the new condensed batteries at Auto Shanghai in April, with an energy density of up to 500 Wh/kg. In comparison, its ultra-efficient Qilin batteries promise an energy density of up to 255 Wh/kg with over 620 miles of range (1000 km), which is more than enough for an electric car.
 

Heat pumps are more than twice as efficient as fossil fuel heating systems in cold temperatures, research shows.

Even at temperatures approaching -30C, heat pumps outperform oil and gas heating systems, according to the research from Oxford University and the Regulatory Assistance Project thinktank.
 
Even at temperatures approaching -30C, heat pumps outperform oil and gas heating systems

I am a HUGE fan of heat pumps, but I find declarations of heat pump performance and efficiency misleading. A heat pump operating at a COP of 1.0001 has bested the best of resistance or combustion heating alternatives, but that will obviously not convince consumers to swap systems. The authors tacitly admit to heat pump limitations towards the end of the article when they discuss climates with temperatures below -10C (14F). There they encourage tighter building envelopes and better insulation.

I don't view the need to build better as a heat pump failure, but rather acknowledging that an integrated design really is needed. Marketing BS that leads to retro-fits of heat pumps into leaky, poorly insulated homes in cold climates is a set-up for failure.
 
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I am a HUGE fan of heat pumps, but I find declarations of heat pump performance and efficiency misleading. A heat pump operating at a COP of 1.0001 has bested the best of resistance or combustion heating alternatives, but that will obviously not convince consumers to swap systems. The authors tacitly admit to heat pump limitations towards the end of the article when they discuss climates with temperatures below -10C (14F). There they encourage tighter building envelopes and better insulation.

I don't view the need to build better as a heat pump failure, but rather acknowledging that an integrated design really is needed. Marketing BS that leads to retro-fits of heat pumps into leaky, poorly insulated homes in cold climates is a set-up for failure.
When you're replacing electric resistance heating, anything over 1 is a win.
All houses need good insulation regardless of heat source.
 
I know personally, that people seem who are resistant to change tend to grab onto one thing. We see it with EV's - but what about the 400 mile trip through the rural mountains towing a boat? Which I have never done but I plan to some day....
That being said, most people aren't replacing electric resistance heating. Or if they are, they aren't worried that the heatpump isn't better. That is a no brainer but of course, spending $10k to save 1% would not really be a good idea even pricing carbon appropriately.
The people who "worry" are replacing NG as a heat source. And then there are good real arguments that a very cold temp is an efficiency problem. But the bigger concern is the right sized heat pump that doesn't quite keep up on a 0 degree night and then electric resistance is used.

The fact is that you have to electrify everything and use resistance heating when it is very cold. This does become somewhat of a problem with peak electricity demand during an arctic blast. Even if a heat pump is better at 0F, it is still not great - like 1.5 at best. So you will still see a big peak with an older housing stock. There maybe some role in a slower transition in parts of the country that this will be a problem. Doesn't seem to matter much since I don't really see 5% annually changing to heat pumps now which I would consider a slow transition.

When will we wake up?

(my heatpumps kept up during some record cold in NC last December - 10 degrees or so. I am wondering if I should run my strips once a year for an hour just to burn off the dust. I think I did get a defrost cycle for 15 min during that cold snap)
 
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This does become somewhat of a problem with peak electricity demand during an arctic blast.

This is one of the seminal problems, because it forces the utility to build infrastructure to power an infrequent peak load. That keeps the price of electricity high, which presents a barrier to heat pump adoption beyond the high cost of purchase and installation The only solution for now is to improve building envelopes and to apply better building codes to new construction.

E.g., if electricity is 20¢ a kWh (mostly to cover peak demand), then presuming an average COP of 2.4, a Therm equivalent is $2.5
 
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This is one of the seminal problems, because it forces the utility to build infrastructure to power an infrequent peak load. That keeps the price of electricity high, which presents a barrier to heat pump adoption beyond the high cost of purchase and installation The only solution for now is to improve building envelopes and to apply better building codes to new construction.

E.g., if electricity is 20¢ a kWh (mostly to cover peak demand), then presuming an average COP of 2.4, a Therm equivalent is $2.5
The grid has max load in summer during the day with AC. Winter nighttime artic blasts are irrelevant.
 
While true on the surface heat pumps are typically a LOT more expensive to install. And curious if the COP includes the 5 minute defrost cycle when the resistant heat strips come on every hour when below 35F.
Just like an EV, the primary savings come from low operating costs even with a higher purchase price.
(I never got around to installing electric resistance backup to my heat pumps. Haven't needed it in past 10 years. I live in the mountains with record cold and snow)
 
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The grid has max load in summer during the day with AC. Winter nighttime artic blasts are irrelevant.
I think that is true for mild winter climates, and in winter climates where electric heating has not replaced NG.
In terms of winter/summer heating/cooling energy use, we are the exception here in California where most people live (greater Los Angeles, San Diego, and SF-Sacramento corridor) and Hawaii too. But for the large percent of the U.S., heating buildings consumes multiple times the amount of energy as cooling.

As NG->heat pumps in greater fashion, this will really strain grids outside CA and HI, all else being equal.

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EIA projects air-conditioning energy use to grow faster than any other use in buildings
 
I have a place on the NC coast that uses a electricity co-op. Relatively small area covered - maybe 100,000 homes?
They published their peak and it was a wintertime 5:50 AM. There is no NG (I don't think) on the NC coast - and not a lot of propane. Most people consider NC fairly a/c dominating.
Here is the thing. A/C never runs electric strips. You run 2 kw for 10 hours. But with cold temps, you might run 10 kw - for an hour. And you might shower and run another 5 kw on the hot water. It is a real problem with 100% heat pumps in a warm area. Not with Florida I suspect.

My heatpumps do not run a mandatory defrost cycle. Mandatory defrost cycles should be legislated out of existence. I had a Carrier Infinity at my last house and it had mandatory defrost cycles. It really hit the COP. Totally ridiculous.

Convert upstate New York to all heat pumps. If they have electric backup, that peak will destroy any summer a/c peak. Some of that is occupant behavior with turning up the heat when people wake up. Good luck legislating that out of existence. But we need to - there needs to be permitting or annual cost based on size of electric strips. And it is going to hurt.
 
But we need to - there needs to be permitting or annual cost based on size of electric strips. And it is going to hurt.

The utilities would **love** to have TOU and/or demand charges. I too think they are inevitable. I'm in the minority that favor their introduction, so that consumers make an effort to match consumption with abundant and inexpensive clean generation