Does it mean anything: Model X mule(s) show signs of opposite-side charge port?

[NigelM]

Here is an example of my thinking combined with your use of the word description:

Description: Model X mule has front corner bumper, B pillar cameras and a rear camera (from photos)
Analysis: Model X mule has all-around view camera system (description combined with industry knowledge and comments from Tesla)
Speculation: Model X final product will ship with all-around view camera system (we can't know for sure when it will happen)

The problem some of us have is that this statement is totally misleading. Firstly, you're assuming that what you see are cameras and not some other sensors or testing equipment. Secondly, you're assuming that because Tesla works with a certain supplier they are including a certain chip (even bigger assumption) to enable all-round parking view system. Thirdly, you're assuming that anything Tesla may be testing will definitively be in the final product.

Now Model X might ship with an all-round camera view or it might not, and I know that English isn't your first language but that isn't what I would call analysis by any stretch of the imagine. It's an awful lot of assumptions and plenty of speculative guesswork. Ever heard the English joke that to 'assume' makes an 'ass' out of 'u' and 'me'?

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Here is an example of my thinking combined with your use of the word description:

Description: Model X mule has front corner bumper, B pillar cameras and a rear camera (from photos)
Analysis: Model X mule has all-around view camera system (description combined with industry knowledge and comments from Tesla)
Speculation: Model X final product will ship with all-around view camera system (we can't know for sure when it will happen)

The problem some of us have is that this statement is totally misleading. Firstly, you're assuming that what you see are cameras and not some other sensors or testing equipment. Secondly, you're assuming that because Tesla works with a certain supplier they are including a certain chip (even bigger assumption) to enable all-round parking view system.

I'm sure by now everyone knows you are one of the people who thinks analysis of mules should be called speculation.

Would it help if we called it business intelligence analysis? (By the way, I didn't include DRIVE PX in my example.)

Thirdly, you're assuming that anything Tesla may be testing will definitively be in the final product.

I know that English isn't your first language but that isn't what I would call analysis by any stretch of the imagine. It's an awful lot of assumptions and plenty of speculative guesswork. Ever heard the English joke that to 'assume' makes an 'ass' out of 'u' and 'me'?

How the heck does that follow, though? I clearly said:

"Speculation: Model X final product will ship with all-around view camera system (we can't know for sure when it will happen)"

 

[dirkhh]

My examples, obviously, were simplifications.

Maybe a bit of backstory on this: Description vs. speculation weren't the competitive words. (I agree description works fine for very clear-cut facts.) The competitive words were: analysis vs. speculation. What can we call analysis of mule photos etc.? What merely speculation? Some here on TMC say everything about mules is speculation. I think for some data and some discussion of data, speculation as a word is too dismissive.

This isn't clear-cut, because analysis in itself is not necessarily a mathematically proven fact, it may include a level of doubt. A silly, but somewhat relevant comparison: Looking at the mules could be analysis the same way it is analysis when a foreign military is looking at satellite photos of the enemy. Sure, it is based on facts (a photo, a situation on the ground), but what they can make of the data, is analysis - to some extent, at least.

Some enthusiasts certainly have a ton of industry, company and product insight that they are combining with the data (e.g. photos) at hand, which goes beyond mere idle speculation.

Here is an example of my thinking combined with your use of the word description:

Description: Model X mule has front corner bumper, B pillar cameras and a rear camera (from photos)
Analysis: Model X mule has all-around view camera system (description combined with industry knowledge and comments from Tesla)
Speculation: Model X final product will ship with all-around view camera system (we can't know for sure when it will happen)

When in doubt, ask the dictionary:

analysis

[uh-nal-uh-sis]
noun, plural analyses
1.the separating of any material or abstract entity into its constituent elements (opposed to synthesis).
2.this process as a method of studying the nature of something or of determining its essential features and their relations:the grammatical analysis of a sentence.
​

Nope, that's not what you are doing.

speculation

[spek-yuh-ley-shuh n]
noun
1.the contemplation or consideration of some subject:to engage in speculation on humanity's ultimate destiny.
2.a single instance or process of consideration.
3.a conclusion or opinion reached by such contemplation:These speculations are impossible to verify.
4.conjectural consideration of a matter; conjecture or surmise:a report based on speculation rather than facts.
​

Bingo.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

When in doubt, ask the dictionary:

analysis

[uh-nal-uh-sis]
noun, plural analyses
1.the separating of any material or abstract entity into its constituent elements (opposed to synthesis).
2.this process as a method of studying the nature of something or of determining its essential features and their relations:the grammatical analysis of a sentence.
​

Nope, that's not what you are doing.

speculation

[spek-yuh-ley-shuh n]
noun
1.the contemplation or consideration of some subject:to engage in speculation on humanity's ultimate destiny.
2.a single instance or process of consideration.
3.a conclusion or opinion reached by such contemplation:These speculations are impossible to verify.
4.conjectural consideration of a matter; conjecture or surmise:a report based on speculation rather than facts.
​

Bingo.

The quoted dictionary entries are on a such high-level that I doubt they are very useful to us. I would rather look at how the words analysis and analyst are used in the practical world.

The way I see it, analysis usually includes an element of interpretation - and interpretation usually includes an element of doubt. There is a reason why the stock market has speculators and analysts as separate, but of course sometimes overlapping concepts. In intelligence, the guy at Langley looking at satellite photos of enemy formations is analyzing what is there, combining other data sources etc. After that, naturally, he may speculate what the formations will do.

I'm not necessarily talking of myself, but if we take a high-quality test vehicle photo, and give it to a knowledgeable party in the car business for a look-though, what they will offer us - when combined with their vast industry knowledge - will be beyond mere description and I would say, very often, beyond mere speculation either. What separates analysis from description is that it combines many descriptions, includes interpretation and thus something beyond mere description.

There is a part between just description and speculation, that I'm talking about. I get it that a vocal part on TMC wants to label it speculation, but I think we might be able to settle on a more descriptive word for what to call the extraction of meaning from unofficial data, when a reasonable amount of interpretation is possible.

I mean, everything includes a level of doubt. Even if Tesla gives us official information, it may turn out to be wrong. Still we don't call it speculation - and neither should we.

 

[dirkhh]

The quoted dictionary entries are on a such high-level that I doubt they are very useful to us. I would rather look at how the words analysis and analyst are used in the practical world.

Translation: this does not fit my needs, let's ignore it

The way I see it, analysis usually includes an element of interpretation - and interpretation usually includes an element of doubt. There is a reason why the stock market has speculators and analysts as separate, but of course sometimes overlapping concepts. In intelligence, the guy at Langley looking at satellite photos of enemy formations is analyzing what is there, combining other data sources etc. After that, naturally, he may speculate what the formations will do.

I'm not necessarily talking of myself, but if we take a high-quality test vehicle photo, and give it to a knowledgeable party in the car business for a look-though, what they will offer us - when combined with their vast industry knowledge - will be beyond mere description and I would say, very often, beyond mere speculation either. What separates analysis from description is that it combines many descriptions, includes interpretation and thus something beyond mere description.

There is a part between just description and speculation, that I'm talking about. I get it that a vocal part on TMC wants to label it speculation, but I think we might be able to settle on a more descriptive word for what to call the extraction of meaning from unofficial data, when a reasonable amount of interpretation is possible.

I mean, everything includes a level of doubt. Even if Tesla gives us official information, it may turn out to be wrong. Still we don't call it speculation - and neither should we.

You are grasping at straws. You are speculating based on mixed quality random snapshots / videos. You are not a CIA analyst looking at satellite imagery. You are posting wild speculations based on random snapshots of random mules.
Let's call a spade a spade, please.
Otherwise people might confuse your speculation for actual analysis and take it seriously.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Translation: this does not fit my needs, let's ignore it

You are grasping at straws. You are speculating based on mixed quality random snapshots / videos. You are not a CIA analyst looking at satellite imagery. You are posting wild speculations based on random snapshots of random mules.
Let's call a spade a spade, please.
Otherwise people might confuse your speculation for actual analysis and take it seriously.

Oh come on. Read the dictionary entry you posted. I was being nice when I dismissed it the way I did - those are hardly useful descriptions for this practical purpose.

The problem I have with this conversation is the lack of middle-ground people seem to have. Either something is fact or it is speculation - that is what I was arguing against. I don't find such a simplistic separation useful when discussing unofficial information. Just because some party can't or won't confirm unofficial information, doesn't mean it isn't true. Not all unofficial information is speculation, even though a larger than usual element of uncertainty is often involved. Equally, not all official information is fact, but may be something less than that...

Some of the stuff I've posted have indeed been extremely speculative - like the notion of a moved or more than one charge port. I would chalk that up as nothing more than speculation, even though it is based on a data point in photos. When I posted, I noted it as such - and if we have a labelling system, that would go under [Speculation] in my books. Then again, I would call the presence of surround cameras in Model X mules not merely speculation. I would say there are enough photos of the hallmarks of all-around cameras for an analysis. Now, saying DRIVE PX is there, that would be speculation, as would making determinations on what will appear on the final vehicle.

Enthusiasts are often very capable of analysis over their domain of expertise. Sometimes even more so than professionals, that may not have time or interest in such nuanced things. I definitely wouldn't call everything car enthusiasts post on car forums about upcoming models as mere speculation. I know for a fact better than that. I would expect that, over time especially, to be true for Tesla enthusiasts as well. Maybe not yet, maybe Tesla indeed has blindsided us all and we'll get that F150 meets X6 without DRIVE PX.

 

[vandacca]

Meanwhile, somewhere in California, Elon is laughing uncontrollably...

 

[NigelM]

I'm sure by now everyone knows you are one of the people who thinks analysis of mules should be called speculation.

Not sure how you presume to know what I think? Perhaps too much 'analysis' of my posts. ;-)

Let's face it, this is not the CIA counting troop movements; we're all looking at grainy shots of camouflaged mules (look up 'mule' in this context) with Tesla testing various things that may or may not be on the RC cars. Buckets loads of assumptions might be fun, but calling it 'analyzing' stretches to fantasy.

How the heck does that follow, though?

Breathe....

- - - Updated - - -

Oh come on. Read the dictionary entry you posted. I was being nice when I dismissed it the way I did - those are hardly useful descriptions for this practical purpose.

Smiley face aside, it's tough to buy the argument that dictionaries are "hardly useful"

- - - Updated - - -

Just because some party can't or won't confirm unofficial information, doesn't mean it isn't true. Not all unofficial information is speculation, even though a larger than usual element of uncertainty is often involved. Equally, not all official information is fact, but may be something less than that...

Donald, is that you? ;-)

- - - Updated - - -

Here is an example of my thinking combined with your use of the word description:

Description: Model X mule has front corner bumper, B pillar cameras and a rear camera (from photos)
Analysis: Model X mule has all-around view camera system (description combined with industry knowledge and comments from Tesla)
Speculation: Model X final product will ship with all-around view camera system (we can't know for sure when it will happen)

AnxietyR, you seem to like practical examples so this occurred to me today:

Description: Model X mules are only in either black or white.
Analysis: Tesla is limiting the colors, and Elon is known to have been an admirer of Henry Ford.
Speculation: Model X will only be available in two colors (although some folks claim that white isn't actually a color).

See, the "analysis" makes a huge assumption based on facts but excludes all other possibilities; by definition, that's not analysis.

 

[dsm363]

I'm game with that.

A personal comment on this speculation vs. analysis:

I guess what irks me the most about this topic is, I think, an almost dismissive tone of the findings regarding unannounced Tesla products by some on TMC. It feels intentional - protective of Tesla's secrets - and not completely about the facts.

I have no problem with facts, and that includes the fact of what is speculation, of course. When something is speculation, it should be labelled as such, too. But some jump that gun prematurely, IMHO.

- - - Updated - - -



A labelling system and a FAQ ín tow would be great, I didn't get it from your first message but this one, I think, is fleshing out the idea... I can see it making sense.

Some enthusiast forums and groups use such things to great effect.

Why does everything have to do with feeling 'dismissed' or the tone you feel is here on TMC? It is speculation if Tesla hasn't released final specs. Nothing wrong with that and no one is attacking you for speculating.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

What weird exchanges mere human misunderstanding creates. I guess my ability to form coherent English is so lacking that the past few responses to me don't get/answer to my thoughts even remotely - or text as a medium is betraying us all.

I'm sure this would be sorted over beers in no time, but until such an opportunity arises, even I actually think it is better to return to the topic at hand. I concede the floor.

 

[EchoDelta]

but until such an opportunity arises,

Oh noes! I was starting to enjoy the description and analysis of our speculations, speculating whether descriptions could exclude analysis, and our speculation of our analysis becoming less speculative. Isn't that why people come here?

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I don't understand the hostility. There is nothing wrong with noticing details on spy images and drawing conclusions, even speculative ones, from those images. People do this all the time on Honda forums and pretty much any other car forum.

I think most of us understand that this is all speculation until the actual official info becomes available from Tesla. I never got the impression that any of this has been presented as factual.

In any case, it would be an interesting feature if Model X were to have a charge port on each side. It would certainly make things easier for owners in some situations.

 

[bonnie]

Oh noes! I was starting to enjoy the description and analysis of our speculations, speculating whether descriptions could exclude analysis, and our speculation of our analysis becoming less speculative. Isn't that why people come here?

You need to step it up a notch ...

 

[dirkhh]

Major SCANDAL uncovered

So far all mule shots show a male driver.
Analysis: This almost certainly means that Tesla will refuse to sell to women. Part of the reason for the delay of the Model X is that Elon needs to figure out how to tell bonnie that she won't be able to get a Model X after all.

 

[bonnie]

So far all mule shots show a male driver.
Analysis: This almost certainly means that Tesla will refuse to sell to women. Part of the reason for the delay of the Model X is that Elon needs to figure out how to tell bonnie that she won't be able to get a Model X after all.

Elon doesn't take on battles when he knows the outcome is not in his favor.

 

[Anzir]

I don't understand the hostility. There is nothing wrong with noticing details on spy images and drawing conclusions, even speculative ones, from those images. People do this all the time on Honda forums and pretty much any other car forum.

I think most of us understand that this is all speculation until the actual official info becomes available from Tesla. I never got the impression that any of this has been presented as factual.

In any case, it would be an interesting feature if Model X were to have a charge port on each side. It would certainly make things easier for owners in some situations.

+1 for sure. If you don't agree with the thread topic there is no compulsion to post.

 

[Aljohn]

@bonnie... you GO GIRL. :smile:

 

[AnxietyRanger]

FWIW, in the latest mule shot the usual charge port location seems openable.

 

[EchoDelta]

I think if Tesla is working on a wall mount self charging snake, it makes a lot of sense to put charger plugs on both sides.

Even @boredelonmusk was complaining that laptops only had charger plugs on one side, and of course that is a really credible & authoritative source for information about the model x

 

[GregHudson]

But hey, it makes AR a thread starter...
And the number of silly threads discussing yet another crazy idea based on pixel-peeking... maybe HRHLGP should create a sub-forum "random crazy ideas based on yet another over-interpreted mule picture"

OK, well here's a crazy idea based on what I spied from an interior walkthrough video... It is something I have on my Merc, and use every day, but is MISSING on the MS...
The cruise control stalk has the word LIM on it (aka speed LIMITER).
I'm really hoping future models X and 3 have this feature included.

Cheers, Greg.