Disagree with Elon, 400 EPA miles is NOT enough

[_jmk]

Good to know the 2-3 kW on normal drive for cold heat. I have a heat pump as a part of my home's complex heating system (using a Heat pump where it can hit -30 or -40 deg is not a common heating situation and has to be part of a gas back up and electric assist unit that works with Heat Pump. ) Heat pump works well, saves money over the year but below 0 deg F, the HP is at a COP (cooefficient of performance rating) of 1, so no gain over straight resistive heat. At 30 deg f, the COP is closer to 3 (300%) and warmer the air, the higher COP, as high as 4 to 5 at 60 deg F on new Heat Pumps. In a car, don't know if that high, but at 30deg, might use 1/3 the energy as resistive. BUT, at 30, not a problem with dist on old X, its under 20deg f.

The unknown for me is how the octovalve helps car overall efficiency. Sounds like it has 15 modes and can move waste heat from batt, motors and HP as needed to passengers or battery as needed. Sounds impressive and can only help over the old X. I do miss that. But don't know yet how much it will help at 0 deg F and if it would be enough for my 'impossible drive'

The Efficiency of the heat pump has a lot to do with the physical size of the device. The pump you have at your house is not quite the same as the ones you find in the cars due to the size limitations..

 

[_jmk]

You'll have to define "really cold". I live in Maine so my really cold is much colder than it was in the UK, but not as cold as somebody from the Northern Plains.

I suggest watching some of Bjørn Nyland's videos winter-testing the heating with the heat pump.

In Tesla's design the heat pump doesn't just give you improved heating efficiency, it also adds the ability to move heat from the battery to the cabin.
That allows recovery of heat added for and by Supercharging that would previously have been lost as waste heat as the car cooled the battery. So it's very beneficial to longer winter trips as it makes them cheaper and faster.

Sure, but check the math Björn does. He lands with the same efficiency gains i’m quoting here. The pump is good, but below -20c just about pointless and at 0c at the peak efficiency of COP3. I’ve never had range issues at 0c, but there you get the extra 6kWh per 3h of driving.

 

[PDX-Y]

You all need to look and live in the Great Plains and other rural areas.

You need to go and look more carefully at that map that showed the route. Supercharger density in the upper peninsula just isn't that bad. This was an absolutely pessimal thing, drawn along tiny rural routes suspiciously aiming between any charger options. You can draw that kind of nonsense between gas stations too, I suspect.

 

[Rocky_H]

You need to go and look more carefully at that map that showed the route. Supercharger density in the upper peninsula just isn't that bad.

That's just not true. I just went and looked carefully at this route. There really are zero Superchargers close to this path.

This was an absolutely pessimal thing, drawn along tiny rural routes suspiciously aiming between any charger options.

You misspelled "sensibly", and it came out "suspiciously". This is what the route planners do on purpose when there is not charging available on the routes. It does use smaller highways with the 55 mph speed limits, because that is most efficient and can get the farthest distance. And there just isn't a main straight shot interstate or something in this area, so it's all "tiny rural routes". So no, ABetterRoutePlanner was not being "suspicious". Notice there are no waypoints along the way? That path was not "drawn" on a pessimistic path--it's what ABetterRoutePlanner picked as the best it could come up with.

I opened Plugshare to see if there was other stuff available somewhere near this, where there could be a few hours of slow charging, but it keeps reporting failure to connect to its database and won't load the charging locations, so I can't check that right now.

 

[bobby g]

When the Plaid+ S was canceled, one reason Elon gave was anything over 400 miles doesn't matter. Elon said, “What we are seeing is that once you have a range above 400 miles, more range doesn’t really matter," he said. "There are essentially zero trips above 400 miles where the driver doesn’t need to stop for restroom, food, coffee, etc. anyway.”

Ok, BUT... Those are EPA, perfect condition, summer miles. With our late 2020 H battery X, LR++ and the 2nd longest distance offered by ANY EV (371 EPA miles), I'm seriously afraid it won't be enough in the winter to go 207 miles to our cabin in the U. P. of Michigan. Did a VERY realistic January trip into ABetterRoutePlanner, which seems to be pretty close to what we do in the summer, says 0 deg F, 100% speed limit (no speeding), a little snow and get 100---> -2% battery, so my 371mile almost longest range car, can't do 207 miles! (Sure they just added a Super Charger in Marquete, but so far out of the way, charge from 40-->100 there and STILL don't make it, so not a choice).

What we need is more SuperChargers in these remote areas, like western U.P. or Northern Wis. Then 400 miles would be ok, but we are not there today.

So solutions: 1. Give me 400 miles at 75 mph in the winter, THEN I agree with Elon.
2. Hope the public J1772 Charger in Houghton is available and stop there for an hour to make up energy getting there. Home then at 8%, so doable.
3. OR I can Charge at 11 KWh at a winery destination charger 30 miles out of the way for 2 hours to make up the out-of-the-way travel plus needed range.
4. OR Slow charge at 11KWh at a nice person's house along the way, using PlugShare, probably 1.5 hours adder and are they home on that day?
Note: This total trip is 4 hours, 2 hours charging adds 50% more time.
5. Or keep our gas burning, Environment ruining Caddy SRX SUV for 4 trips a year (what a waste). But guaranteed to make it in that one.
6. Or Don't go on trip. Not the 'future of transportation" I was looking for when bought full electric long range X.
7. OR, most likely solution, use our 2019 Chevy Volt, with it's obsolete, backwards azz, useless, yesterdays, hybrid technology. Just missing the AWD and space of the X, but with snows it will probably make it.

So as an edge case, I can't control where they put chargers or when, but I COULD make it if I had more real range, so I disagree with Elon, he is wrong for us TODAY. (2 years from now, who knows where chargers will be.)

If we expect us SUV and truck loving peeps give up the convenience of gas and save the word from CO2, we HAVE to have more real range or the charging infrastruction EVERYWHERE before can stop using ICE cars and move on to the future. Right now, it's chicken and egg. Not enough of us up here with electrics, but no one else I know will buy one because they can't do 207 miles in the winter! Hence my user Name: FirstInTown. and so far, the OnlyInTown. And I am An EV advocate, with the Volt, 8kw of home Solar and the X, I talk up how great it is. Yet looking at the winter, I'm afraid of what is coming. I know what happens to the Volt's range at 0 deg.

I'm being it won't be the 66 miles today I was getting in my Volt here in socal. I traded it and an STI to get my M3 and I miss parts of both but I was able to do 82% electric over the life of my volt. Still the best plug in hybrid imho

 

[FirstInTown]

You need to go and look more carefully at that map that showed the route. Supercharger density in the upper peninsula just isn't that bad. This was an absolutely pessimal thing, drawn along tiny rural routes suspiciously aiming between any charger options. You can draw that kind of nonsense between gas stations too, I suspect.

Again, the route is NOT suspiciously draw to avoid Superchargers. We have been driving route LONG before Tesla was even a thing, since 1990 when we moved to the area and went to visit my parents who owned the cabin at the time. So it's bad, sure. But is is also the route ABRP uses, as it is the most logical way to get from here to there.

Again, a TRUE 400 miles would be enough, but this is EPA RATING miles. Add cold and snow and a headwind, and the 'EPA 400 miles' becomes a dream no one hits and for my case, it doesn't cut it. I'm afraid I can't do 215 miles!

 

[Prairie]

OP here, Strider has some good points I agree with. From a resource and weight perspective, smaller is better for everyone. Strongly agree. But, I AM an edge case and DO have a charger problem. When does that get fixed? 1-year? 5 years? Since Tesla is in charge of Super chargers and where they site them, and I am seemingly close to alone as an owner in this area, we have the classic chicken-and-egg delemia.

I watch the new charger maps from Tesla, EA and the like in this area. Other than some RedE chargers (looks like level 2) there doesn't seem to be anything planned in this area. The elusive infrastructure plan? Maybe. In what time frame?

Part of the reason we got the 'least efficient model' is the X has WOW factor up here. Most have never seen one and the doors still have that WOW, WHAT IS THAT to get conversions about EVs started. I love being an EV advocate, as also have a Volt.

My problem is I SOOOOO want EVs to replace ICE everywhere. But those truck lovers (and SUVs) around me (the missing 20% from your 80% covered) are not going to switch from the gas loving trucks until the EV can go EVERYWHERE the truck can. Just stubborn that way. So give us the option (500 mile CT) of more than 400 miles to get us by now, as we need it. (It's not really 500 miles anyway in real life up here. Hopeing for real 300.) Make it an option, so people covered by charging don't have to pay or carry the battery around. Yes, this is a band aide until charging is here, but don't know when and don't want to wait and burn more gas in the mean time.

I need chargers on the way and I've gone so far as contact a casino on the way about adding a Destination Charger. Not a gambler, but could eat a meal while charge (at level 2, Boo).

Points: Rural people drive SUVs (some quite large and heavy) and trucks for practical reasons. The X is the only EV that comes close in storage capacity to my minivan. I dislike the weight limits on the trunk storage capacity but I’ll work with it. There are very few sedans. If we had enough super chargers, we would not be so desperate for range, especially given cold, heat, wind reduction on range. I am not sitting for 4 hrs in a town of 100 for sufficient charge to make it to the next slow charger. However, altering a normal ICE route 125 miles ( 2 hr drive) to get to supercharger and avoid 4 hour delay on a normal 5 hr trip is not realistic. Yes, I am an early to mid adopter of EV auto but the future is now and we must reduce emissions drastically. solution: more, lots more, super chargers of any brand in rural areas and continuous increase in range.

 

[henderrj]

Points: Rural people drive SUVs (some quite large and heavy) and trucks for practical reasons. The X is the only EV that comes close in storage capacity to my minivan. I dislike the weight limits on the trunk storage capacity but I’ll work with it. There are very few sedans. If we had enough super chargers, we would not be so desperate for range, especially given cold, heat, wind reduction on range. I am not sitting for 4 hrs in a town of 100 for sufficient charge to make it to the next slow charger. However, altering a normal ICE route 125 miles ( 2 hr drive) to get to supercharger and avoid 4 hour delay on a normal 5 hr trip is not realistic. Yes, I am an early to mid adopter of EV auto but the future is now and we must reduce emissions drastically. solution: more, lots more, super chargers of any brand in rural areas and continuous increase in range.

It is my understanding that there are roughly 25,000 superchargers installed worldwide now. The new China factory can make 10,000 per year. That seems to indicate a pretty rapid advance is coming. Since I'm sure the fremont, or is it in arizona, factory for superchargers will keep churning them out as they always have. Add to that the spend and tax philosophy of our current administration and I think we'll get a lot of money thrown at chargers, and Tesla looks like they'll get a big chunk. So, we should see all of the superchargers we want within 5 years, is my guess.

 

[Prairie]

It is my understanding that there are roughly 25,000 superchargers installed worldwide now. The new China factory can make 10,000 per year. That seems to indicate a pretty rapid advance is coming. Since I'm sure the fremont, or is it in arizona, factory for superchargers will keep churning them out as they always have. Add to that the spend and tax philosophy of our current administration and I think we'll get a lot of money thrown at chargers, and Tesla looks like they'll get a big chunk. So, we should see all of the superchargers we want within 5 years, is my guess.

Let’s hope that we get superchargers in significantly rural yet tourist spots. I just figured out I can get to Toadstool National Park in western Nebraska on a “nice” day, not hot summer, not cold winter, not high wind (ha,) with 12% battery but I can’t get to a charger of any sort to get myself OUT.. oh, and to t get myself there requires a 100 mile jaunt to Wyoming and back to get to the park. But I can’t get back out.

 

[henderrj]

Let’s hope that we get superchargers in significantly rural yet tourist spots. I just figured out I can get to Toadstool National Park in western Nebraska on a “nice” day, not hot summer, not cold winter, not high wind (ha,) with 12% battery but I can’t get to a charger of any sort to get myself OUT.. oh, and to t get myself there requires a 100 mile jaunt to Wyoming and back to get to the park. But I can’t get back out.

I'm afraid I have to agree with you. Have relocated to Oklahoma, which hasn't seen a new supercharger location in something like 5 years. Apparently all of the production is going to places where tesla is most popular, that is to say california. Hopefully they'll soon start spreading them out!

 

[ElectricIAC]

I'm afraid I have to agree with you. Have relocated to Oklahoma, which hasn't seen a new supercharger location in something like 5 years. Apparently all of the production is going to places where tesla is most popular, that is to say california. Hopefully they'll soon start spreading them out!

Break out that CHAdeMo adapter in OK with Francis Energy.

I agree though more SC needed in OK!!

 

[Richbot]

OK is an oil state - maybe they're facing some shenanigans from local governments. MO has gotten like 50 stalls installed in the past 12 months - we have really good coverage for interstate travel now and the state isn't big enough to make intrastate an issue. Oklahoma is about the same land area as MO with half the population density and doesn't have near as many interstates touching it so I'm sure that's part of it too.

Anyway, don't feel neglected by the network at all in MO, just one state over. It'll come

 

[mswlogo]

Nor does Elon take into consideration that it’s inconvenient to charge to 100%. Since you don’t want to leave it at 100% over night and timing it just before your trip is a pain. It’s also very inconvenient (and discouraged by Elon/Tesla) to charge to 100% at a SC stop.

It’s also extremely inconvenient to run your battery down to 0%.

So even in perfect conditions. It’s 80% of that 400 Miles’s. Which brings us down to 320 miles.

And just being conservative and substracting another 20% in winter. You are down to 260 miles.

He also forgets degradation.

I think the magic number to me is a 500 mile “battery”.

Regarding OP taking his 372 mile range X. Drop that to say 365 for a little real world degradation. And 60% of that is 219 miles. That’s a little tight. But maybe fine with 100% charge and preconditioned.

 

[Big Dog]

Nor does Elon take into consideration that it’s inconvenient to charge to 100%. Since you don’t want to leave it at 100% over night and timing it just before your trip is a pain.

With all the issues of teh UI, I have to disagree that charging to 100% is "inconvenient", at least at home. Set it at 100%, with a planned leave time at 6:00 am, and its fully charged at 6:00 am and ready-to-go for your trip.

 

[Richbot]

I'm of the opinion that 500 miles is the sweet spot for trouble-free long distance road tripping because cold weather and headwinds and such. I think Lucid did the right thing shooting for the moon here.

The longest range teslas are fine for people who are willing to compromise and see the benefits of the cars and such. IF you're just a regular person trying to go from Iowa to Denver, you're gonna get irritated by cold and headwind knocking 25% off of your 400 miles, and real-world charging constraints knocking another 100 off, for a realistic 200 mile stint in between charges anytime it's not exactly 65 degrees with calm winds, IMO. Part of that is, the 400 mile range Tesla (and EPA) advertise for the car is pure fantasy if you're doing 75mph (which is a very conservative speed west of the Mississippi and east of the Sierras) and there needs to be a highway range rating on the Monroney sticker, ASAP to help people manage their expectations.

For every other use case, 300 is fine and 400 is overkill because even if it's -20F outside you've still got 150-200 miles of range to use every day.

Also, one time I needed to leave at 100% but I left at 94% for a long trip and I died and now I'm a shipposting internet ghost

 

[mswlogo]

With all the issues of teh UI, I have to disagree that charging to 100% is "inconvenient", at least at home. Set it at 100%, with a planned leave time at 6:00 am, and its fully charged at 6:00 am and ready-to-go for your trip.

To much of a pain in my life style. For example in my world what if plans change and you don’t go on that trip, Now what? You have to drive it off or ruin your battery. 100% charging is a royal pain. And again it is not practical at a SC either.

In practice, for long trips it’s 20% to 80% and subtract 20% for winter driving from that.

I never dare go below 30% in winter in case of emergency (large detour, stuck on highway in a blizzard etc. )

 

[Richbot]

charging to 100% doesn't ruin the battery - I've done it at least 50 times in 18,500 miles and have lost a whopping 7 miles of indicated max range. If deg continues at this pace maxrange will be 300 miles at 185,000 miles! Calamitous...Charging to 100% and leaving it there for days is *not great* but also doesn't "ruin" it. Just unplug it and run the cabin heater for a couple hours if you're worried. And, with LFP cars, this convention turns on its head anyway. It's only a constraint until it's not

I agree charging to 100% or even 90% on a fast charger is usually not practical, unless you're doing a longer pit stop for groceries or dinner or whatever. Our last big road trip I think we got to 85% one time

I also agree with being conservative in winter, but that's a personal risk tolerance thing

 

[Unclepaul]

Tesla is aware of these issues, and often needs to make hard decisions to their offerings.

They could easily make a 500 mile car. Just put in more batteries. Downside is that that would increase the price, make the cars heavier and more clumbsy. Since they are currently battery constrained, putting in 20% more batteries would result in them being to make 20% fewer cars. Would make the waiting lines even longer as well.

The latest Lithium Iron batteries, going into some of the latest Tesla models, love to be charged to 100%. As technology marches forward the applications for EVs will continue to expand and improve.

I believe that Tesla has a current solution to making their heat pumps more effective in very cold weather. They generate heat with their motors and plumb that heat, through the ocotvalve to preheat the air going to the heat pump. While this uses some energy, it is still more efficient than using resistance heating.

Many of the benefits of EVs use are focused on crowded urban areas. The fumes from ICE exhausts cause the most problems there. Sparcely populated areas do not have the same issues, so perhaps focusing on the crowded areas first is not a bad idea.

Driving up to a secluled lake, or a remote camping spot in an EV would be fantastic, but the benefits to the environment would be very little.

In a perfect world, vehicles would simply take static electricity out of the air and power their vehicles down the road that way. This was envisioned by Ayn Rand in the 70's (See "The FountainHead). Issue right now is how to change the world of personal and business transportation from gassers to EVs.

 

[mswlogo]

charging to 100% doesn't ruin the battery - I've done it at least 50 times in 18,500 miles and have lost a whopping 7 miles of indicated max range. If deg continues at this pace maxrange will be 300 miles at 185,000 miles! Calamitous...Charging to 100% and leaving it there for days is *not great* but also doesn't "ruin" it. Just unplug it and run the cabin heater for a couple hours if you're worried. And, with LFP cars, this convention turns on its head anyway. It's only a constraint until it's not

I agree charging to 100% or even 90% on a fast charger is usually not practical, unless you're doing a longer pit stop for groceries or dinner or whatever. Our last big road trip I think we got to 85% one time

I also agree with being conservative in winter, but that's a personal risk tolerance thing

LFP doesn't exist in a 400 miles range Model S yet which is the topic. That would change the game quite a bit when it does.

372 to 300 at 185K, that's not great if you ask me.
My X shipped with 326 miles range and has 324 miles range with 27K miles.
I have charged to 100% maybe a dozen times (a few times at SC), but I always drive it immediately.

 

[FirstInTown]

Op here. Well real world is backing up my original statement, but a proposed SC location for next year will change alot.

First, On a cold weather drive to where there is a SC, it used at a rate that gets 226 miles from a 371 mile rated X. My car has 20,000 miles and is down 4% on range already as I get 320 or 321 at 90%. So that's a best of 355 miles now down from 371 in 20k (real bad considering I have charged to 100 % about 3 times and never under 10%. Try to avoid SC as bad for battery also(Scan My Tesla shows 16% SC usage). Normally charge to 60 to 90% daily depending on what doing. 60% for 20 mile days and 90 for trips. Try to stay around 50% for the used range as 20-80% best for battery. Not liking the degradation getting on H battery).

So degradation bad even though trying to be nice to battery. Back to range. That 226 is total range I would get in the cold, with preheating at 2-9 deg f outside going between 55 and 65 on open road. That's 442 watt/MI VS summer getting close to the rated 279. That range isn't enough. Charge to 90%, don't Stop below 10% and get more like 180 mile total usable range to not hurt battery. Cold range is like 50% EPA Rating.

Other things. Spend night at son's place. End of a trip so got there at 23% Charged on his L2 3kw charger at -15f and got to 51% after 15 hrs charging. Getting 2kw/hr as battery warming taking the rest. Didn't preheat as battery not charging fast enough to warm cabin. Home 60 miles later at 4deg f with 17%. So about 30 kw for 60 miles or 500watt/mile. 80% of usage is closer to 160 miles only at that rate. Ouch and not even close to 371 EPA miles.

Other thing realized, ICE cars only go 300 miles about before need refill. But there are gas stations in every little town 20 miles apart here. L2 is pretty useless in the cold when on the road, look at son's use above, so L3 SC it is. Those are not 20 miles apart. If every gas station had 4 it would be SO differernt. But instead beholden to where Tesla puts the SC. On that note, one is now planned 60 miles from home, right on path to cabin. So if goes in next year that cuts longest leg to 155 miles. Still a bit scary if very cold and snowy as 180 is real range, but doable.

Until then, we have used original option 5 to go to cabin. Take ICE Caddy and burn gas. It sucks to have to do that, but we get there this way.