Did Ford Just Crush Tesla Motors?

[smorgasbord]

Then there are the accessories like thousand pound cables when others cost £200.

Isn't the UMC included standard, even in the 160 mile version?

 

[dpeilow]

Isn't the UMC included standard, even in the 160 mile version?

Mennekes cables? The whole gammut of plugs for the UMC? Precedent says these will be expensive because there is one source.

 

[dsm363]

Hopefully they'll include commonly needed adapters with the car in each country. The Model S is coming with the J1772 adapter I think in the US so maybe it'll come with Mennekes adapter in Europe?

 

[Kevin Sharpe]

I'm in the top 5% of UK earners. I'll back Tesla all the way, but I'm not going to go for a Model S because although I could afford the 160 with cash, now (at least on dollar values), I am not putting down that much money on a car that as others have pointed out, will not be able to meet even the most regular of my non-work journeys after a few years of ageing. Lack of rapid charging on the lower models is a big miss.

I think these are critical points and if Tesla has ambitions to become a volume car manufacturer then it must reach out beyond the 5% earners bracket... if three UK Tesla 'fan boys' have said that they cannot buy the Model S then clearly Tesla have given other manufacturers a big opportunity to 'crush them'...

 

[Mycroft]

Kevin, the same thing could have been said of the Roadster. To get pure EV with more range, there's no way around the low-volume/high-price yet.

 

[Kevin Sharpe]

To get pure EV with more range, there's no way around the low-volume/high-price yet.

sure... but that's not what's stopping us from buying the Model S.... it's the design decisions that are being made...

 

[JRP3]

I'm guessing you were counting on fast charging for the 160 mile model?

 

[AnOutsider]

I think these are critical points and if Tesla has ambitions to become a volume car manufacturer then it must reach out beyond the 5% earners bracket... if three UK Tesla 'fan boys' have said that they cannot buy the Model S then clearly Tesla have given other manufacturers a big opportunity to 'crush them'...

IIRC dpeilow said it was because of price (having to get the 160 pack), if so, then what Mr Holmes said is correct.

 

[dpeilow]

I'm guessing you were counting on fast charging for the 160 mile model?

Yes. And notwithstanding knowledge of the limitations of their battery chemistry, one aspect of the work on making an "automotive grade cell" with Panasonic should be to address this. I still think they can allow a few rapid charges a year in the 35-40kW range without doing damage.

IIRC dpeilow said it was because of price (having to get the 160 pack), if so, then what Mr Holmes said is correct.

Right. I am assuming the same US/UK price ratio as the Roadster, but in fact their margin for currency fluctuation could be more with the S because none of it is assembled locally.

And while I think the top down business model is right for Tesla, it is not the case for large established players like Nissan. Given the LEAF battery supposedly weighs 250kg and costs $9000, they could double this and have a compelling product in the C/D segment space for the same price as the Ampera. Yes they make a slight loss on LEAFs now, but my understanding is this will not be the case when they are produced by factories within each market.

On the other hand, Tesla needs to get the Bluestar to $40k/£35k without loan (because it may be gone by then) to compete with the BMW 328i, while retaining 150 miles real-world range and quick charge. They aren't going to get there by 2016 just on battery costs falling. They need something of a step change to do that.

 

[Mycroft]

I hope you're right. There must be a reason that all the big boys are limiting their EV products to < 100 miles, but I can't fathom what it is other than price. I'm guessing that they agree with Elon that people won't pay for that much battery without commensurate "luxury" and Nissan et al aren't prepared to go there with their luxury brands yet. Heck, look at how badly Lexus is handling the hybrid migration.

 

[Eberhard]

Quick charge has nothing to do with the capacity. Only the duration is important. If you charge the 85kWh pack, you start with 90kW, but with 40kWh you will charge it with 40-45kW putting the same stress on the batterie like the big one. Its only a strategic decision to move buyers to the next bigger 60kWh pack. it would also work on the Roadster as well.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Quick charge has nothing to do with the capacity. Only the duration is important. If you charge the 85kWh pack, you start with 90kW, but with 40kWh you will charge it with 40-45kW putting the same stress on the batterie like the big one. Its only a strategic decision to move buyers to the next bigger 60kWh pack. it would also work on the Roadster as well.

Not exactly. Even given the premise of quick charging being defined by total charging time (rather than speed in mph or the power output of the given quick charge station, which makes the 85kWh pack faster), the battery life issue is as follows:
With the 85kWh pack, charging on 90kW, you gain about 300 miles of range per quick charge. With the 40kWh pack on 45kW, you gain about 160 miles of range per quick charge. To go the same amount of distance using quick charge, the 40kWh sees about twice the impact (it needs roughly two quick charges vs just one with the 85kWh pack).

Remember, the warranty is based on miles (not directly number of charges or cycles), so this is definitely a concern for Tesla. If Tesla adds an explicit provision limiting how many quick charges you can do over the lifetime of the pack before the warranty expires, then it's not a concern. But this has never been done by anyone (kind of like limiting the amount of times you can fill up a gas car) and you can guarantee the anti-EV/anti-Tesla people will grab on to this point.

 

[EVNow]

Remember, the warranty is based on miles (not directly number of charges or cycles), so this is definitely a concern for Tesla. If Tesla adds an explicit provision limiting how many quick charges you can do over the lifetime of the pack before the warranty expires, then it's not a concern. But this has never been done by anyone (kind of like limiting the amount of times you can fill up a gas car) and you can guarantee the anti-EV/anti-Tesla people will grab on to this point.

Not correct. Nissan has said you should only QC once a day - though they won't mind if you QC multiple times a day when the temperature isn't too high.

Moreover - it is not very practical to QC a number of times to go to a far off place - so most 40 kWh owners will not go as far as 85 kWh owners would.

 

[EVNow]

I think that most people are interested in the model S because it IS an EV. I would venture a guess that many would be Volt or the like shoppers would be willing to upgrade to Tesla, but not too many interested in the S would even consider a Downgrade to the Volt/Energi. It's kind of a one way street, especially after a test drive.

Well, there will be all kinds of people - some more committed than others. There were people who moved from Leaf to an ICE half the price. There will always been those who will change when it comes time to sign on the dotted lines. It is always a two way street.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Not correct. Nissan has said you should only QC once a day - though they won't mind if you QC multiple times a day when the temperature isn't too high.

Moreover - it is not very practical to QC a number of times to go to a far off place - so most 40 kWh owners will not go as far as 85 kWh owners would.

Is that written explicitly on the warranty, or is it just a general guideline (sounds like only a general guideline to me if they "don't mind multiple times a day when the temperature isn't too high")?

And a "once per day" provision is still significantly different than a "X amount of times" provision because over the 8 year warranty, you can QC 8*365 = 2920 times and still not violate that provision.

"Not Very Practical" is not relevant in warranty terms; the automaker has to take into account anything that is possible (and it is certainly possible to QC multiple times per day) and protect itself using the warranty terms by limiting the scope of what type of operation is covered.

 

[dpeilow]

Can we please not take this off into another fast charging thread...

 

[Iz]

Back to the original thread :biggrin:

That launch will almost certainly be a success, at least initially -- Tesla has thousands of preorders (and $5,000 deposits) and has already said that the initial production run is sold out -- but for Tesla to succeed as a business, the Model S has to get sustainable sales traction, to find customers beyond the circle of well-heeled gadget geeks and early adopters who ponied up all those deposits.

Assuming 10,000 deposits are placed before 3rd quarter, TM will have to find ~ 15,000 new deposits in 2013 and about the same each year thereafter. Factor in ~ another 10,000 for Model X later. Eventually, they will have to begin advertising and educating all the non-"gadget geeks".

 

[Eberhard]

Not exactly. Even given the premise of quick charging being defined by total charging time (rather than speed in mph or the power output of the given quick charge station, which makes the 85kWh pack faster), the battery life issue is as follows:
With the 85kWh pack, charging on 90kW, you gain about 300 miles of range per quick charge. With the 40kWh pack on 45kW, you gain about 160 miles of range per quick charge. To go the same amount of distance using quick charge, the 40kWh sees about twice the impact (it needs roughly two quick charges vs just one with the 85kWh pack).

Remember, the warranty is based on miles (not directly number of charges or cycles), so this is definitely a concern for Tesla. If Tesla adds an explicit provision limiting how many quick charges you can do over the lifetime of the pack before the warranty expires, then it's not a concern. But this has never been done by anyone (kind of like limiting the amount of times you can fill up a gas car) and you can guarantee the anti-EV/anti-Tesla people will grab on to this point.

That a general problem with the number of cycles, the battery will face, as well with shallow cycles, which put less stress. if you have the 300miles pack and you go 150miles, you need 50% while at the 160miles version near 100%.
The speed of charging is not the real issue. But as smaller the pack, you will but always higher stress on the battery while charging or driving.

 

[vfx]

...
Assuming 10,000 deposits are placed before 3rd quarter, TM will have to find ~ 15,000 new deposits in 2013 and about the same each year thereafter. Factor in ~ another 10,000 for Model X later. Eventually, they will have to begin advertising and educating all the non-"gadget geeks".

Was in the LA Tesla store on Sat. The stream of people coming in was amazing. Saw sales, and a depositor visiting the car just back from CES.

The LA store is something you have to go out of the way to get to.

 

[Mycroft]

I don't think "educating all the non-gadget geeks" will be a problem at all. Just as with the Roadster, owners of the Model S will be the chief educators and enthusiastic proponents. Except there will be thousands of Model S owners compared to hundreds of Roadster owners. Plus the price of admission is much more achievable to more people and the car is much more practical.