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was the only way out.
A little confused about why you feel trapped. Coronavirus still sucks but it has definitely lost its punch. Things are back to normal, and things are nearly (but not quite) fine.

The ones who feel trapped are the immunocompromised, etc. Maybe you’re in that position and if so I am sorry, and I wish people would try harder to limit their spread. And wear an N95!

We are on the bumpy glide path to being ok - unless we get a curve ball which of course is possible. But hopefully immune memory will be good enough (seems to be so far).
 
There was a possible way out, but we didn't try it, even when it could have been ready sooner:

If we'd have come up with say 16 different RADVAC vaccines, and distributed them equally. Even if not perfect, as a bolster, and kept accurate records, in case of repeated failure, the diversity of which could have given us an early exit.

Having only a single vaccine, with different names and mechanisms, but the same functional (and toxic) element was one hell of a mistake. It was idiocy of the highest order. It was pandemic suicide. We will suffer for decades.
 
Still hiding behind the chainsaws, juk, you know nothing about Marshall McLuhan.

Seriously, just stop. Or demonstrate one, just one single piece of intelligible evidence you know what medical literature is about, or how to interpret and apply that information, on any level. Or even the desire to learn. You have been asked here many times but have yet to demonstrate even the first bit of basic understanding of the process. You would systematically be booted from academic journal club, relegated to basis home assignments covering literature analysis and application.

A human with any perspective, honesty, or integrity would be beyond the point embarrassed. But yet you sail right along slinging out misinformation as if it were a troll, chopped up into a salad, pumped up on rye, the dressing sprinkled with make-believe facts, gleaned by the slithery tails. A psychedelic attempt at reality even Tom Wolfe would have recorded then kicked Further off the bus. Just that scrambled.........Opinions and observations do not magically become fact when stirred in a pot laced with chopped-on-the-block bits and pieces of information........Magical thinking is just that, magical, fantasy. In the real world, when human lives are in the balance, those of us actually taking that very real responsibility must in fact act that way, responsible. Not the slithering and slicing of bits and pieces of information slung out here.

Listen, medical literature and the eventual application to medical practice is very different from the literature and practice of other sciences. Why? Perpetual unknowns at the least. Myriad other reasons you could spend many careers analyzing and describing, the research difficult, methodologies hard to standardize, results often difficult to impossible to repeat, unknown or impossible to account-for variables, as yet mysteries of the human body and genetics, both of which we still know precious little, the end point, methods and results which are always in question, always. There is never a study or two, or even more, which gives final definitive medical answers. The literature pushes or pulls us in directions fine-tuned over time. Over forever. A slow and arduous, always present process.

Medicine is a game of statistics, the statistical accumulation of all the evidence we gather, that which pans out consistently, accumulates, other false, or lesser, uncertain, evidence subtracted, altered, fine-tuned, perfected, over forever, always reexamined, retested, looked at with literally new and different eyes, at different times, among different people. A game of statistics, yet even that is not good enough. When you apply statistics to the individual you have an entirely new set of variables. Blindly you may be right a statistical amount of time, for xyz, but that's not good enough when applied to an individual. You need more.

So we keep looking, observing, gathering information, using the imperfect and subjective art, personal experience, practice experience, anecdotal evidence, hey I keep seeing this variation isn’t that weird, keep that on the back burner, but always with the struggle to keep an open mind, to be ever conscience of natural and inherent biases, and to constantly battle all those dangers, including those dangers yet unknown. Medical literature is never final, definitive, absolute. That has to be acknowledged or the entire process is bogus. And all studies have flaws. Understanding those flaws is issue number one in effective use of the medical literature. Medical literature has to be used with full knowledge of the inherent weaknesses. Without even an understanding of the technical analysis of the literature and how to rank and weigh different levels of evidence, balanced in the overall aggregate of incoming accumulated information, all applied and perpetually fine-tuned to a medical problem, the process totally dependent of the consequence of that effort, well, that random airing of select literature is meaningless.

I do not have a side, with the exception of the truth. Prove masks or immunizations are harmful and I’m with you. That most certainly has not been done. Not even close. My natural and required skeptical interpretation would find that unlikely, but keep looking. Of course, if you don’t even bother to learn how to look, a blind nod is as good as a wink, at least for Dostoevsky’s horse. I’m not suggesting you ignore Cervantes entirely, windmills are all the rage, just don't go full Quixote, learn the technical game if you wish to play with any meaning. Learn how to gather and weigh the evidence, how to aggregate and apply that evidence, and most importantly how the consequence of that application alters the entire process. Welcome aboard and get out there and do the work. It’s never too late, unless of course, ego trips you over the abyss. Which is a real and present danger…….
 
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Still hiding behind the chainsaws, juk, you know nothing about Marshall McLuhan.

Seriously, just stop. Or demonstrate one, just one single piece of intelligible evidence you know what medical literature is about, or how to interpret and apply that information, on any level. Or even the desire to learn. You have been asked here many times but have yet to demonstrate even the first bit of basic understanding of the process. You would systematically be booted from academic journal club, relegated to basis home assignments covering literature analysis and application.

A human with any perspective, honesty, or integrity would be beyond the point embarrassed. But yet you sail right along slinging out misinformation as if it were a troll, chopped up into a salad, pumped up on rye, the dressing sprinkled with make-believe facts, gleaned by the slithery tails. A psychedelic attempt at reality even Tom Wolfe would have recorded then kicked Further off the bus. Just that scrambled.........Opinions and observations do not magically become fact when stirred in a pot laced with chopped-on-the-block bits and pieces of information........Magical thinking is just that, magical, fantasy. In the real world, when human lives are in the balance, those of us actually taking that very real responsibility must in fact act that way, responsible. Not the slithering and slicing of bits and pieces of information slung out here.

Listen, medical literature and the eventual application to medical practice is very different from the literature and practice of other sciences. Why? Perpetual unknowns at the least. Myriad other reasons you could spend many careers analyzing and describing, the research difficult, methodologies hard to standardize, results often difficult to impossible to repeat, unknown or impossible to account-for variables, as yet mysteries of the human body and genetics, both of which we still know precious little, the end point, methods and results which are always in question, always. There is never a study or two, or even more, which gives final definitive medical answers. The literature pushes or pulls us in directions fine-tuned over time. Over forever. A slow and arduous, always present process.

Medicine is a game of statistics, the statistical accumulation of all the evidence we gather, that which pans out consistently, accumulates, other false, or lesser, uncertain, evidence subtracted, altered, fine-tuned, perfected, over forever, always reexamined, retested, looked at with literally new and different eyes, at different times, among different people. A game of statistics, yet even that is not good enough. When you apply statistics to the individual you have an entirely new set of variables. Blindly you may be right a statistical amount of time, for xyz, but that's not good enough when applied to an individual. You need more.

So we keep looking, observing, gathering information, using the imperfect and subjective art, personal experience, practice experience, anecdotal evidence, hey I keep seeing this variation isn’t that weird, keep that on the back burner, but always with the struggle to keep an open mind, to be ever conscience of natural and inherent biases, and to constantly battle all those dangers, including those dangers yet unknown. Medical literature is never final, definitive, absolute. That has to be acknowledged or the entire process is bogus. And all studies have flaws. Understanding those flaws is issue number one in effective use of the medical literature. Medical literature has to be used with full knowledge of the inherent weaknesses. Without even an understanding of the technical analysis of the literature and how to rank and weigh different levels of evidence, balanced in the overall aggregate of incoming accumulated information, all applied and perpetually fine-tuned to a medical problem, the process totally dependent of the consequence of that effort, well, that random airing of select literature is meaningless.

I do not have a side, with the exception of the truth. Prove masks or immunizations are harmful and I’m with you. That most certainly has not been done. Not even close. My natural and required skeptical interpretation would find that unlikely, but keep looking. Of course, if you don’t even bother to learn how to look, a blind nod is as good as a wink, at least for Dostoevsky’s horse. I’m not suggesting you ignore Cervantes entirely, windmills are all the rage, just don't go full Quixote, learn the technical game if you wish to play with any meaning. Learn how to gather and weigh the evidence, how to aggregate and apply that evidence, and most importantly how the consequence of that application alters the entire process. Welcome aboard and get out there and do the work. It’s never too late, unless of course, ego trips you over the abyss. Which is a real and present danger…….
How many data sets do you need to know you've got a sh1t sandwich?

Here's number 4, 5 and 6:


And Japan seems to be experiencing another bad batch of masks for the second time in 4 months.
 
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Let's use the swiss cheese metaphor, but instead of the slices being of stuff that doesn't work, each slice can be a unique immune response. This gives a diversified immune response that can eradicate it from the population, like we did in Australia several times, and how it was a nothingburger before we started doing stupid things.

Then you take a pineapple corer and put a massive hole through all the slices. It matters not if the hole is offset, because once the virus finds it, you're collectively screwed.

And that's where we are. Wrapped helically around a shitty immune response with an inclined plane.

Diversity is strength. Monocultures need monsanto.

View attachment 889499
Australia eliminated it by doing contact tracing, mass testing, and extremely strict quarantines...
All the data I've seen shows that prior infection with a pre-Omicron strain provides no better than protection than the "shitty" vaccines.
1672241921687.png

 
XBB mostly in the NE for now...

I overlaid some of @trvrb group's analysis of effective Reproductive Number over time since a variant first starts spreading.
XBB.1.5 appears faster and more sustained than ANY of the variants since Omicron's first wave last January.
Current Rt 1.6-1.8

3SrfUTr.jpg

HE4WbNj.jpg
 
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Reactions: JRP3
Data:

Thanks. Curious graphs. I don't know what to make of South Korea.

Looks like there is XBB and XBB.1.5 but COVID Data Tracker only shows "XBB". Guessing combined ... aka sublineages.

nAOx7t5.jpg


Large image: https://github.com/blab/rt-from-fre.../xbb15-ba2320_variant-estimated-log-cases.png
 
This gives a diversified immune response that can eradicate it from the population, like we did in Australia several times, and how it was a nothingburger before we started doing stupid things.
Lol. Yeah I am sure the Australian “diversified immune response” method would have gone over well in the US.

I am sorry that this approach seems to have scarred you and you think there is no off-ramp, and has impacted your trust of “the science” (which had a number of screw ups and deliberate miscommunications (aka lies)). But I think you have to look at intent, when judging these things with the clarity of hindsight. Kind of a slippery slope argument I know, but overall, the medical professionals and disease control experts did the best they could based on limited knowledge.


Does anyone have data on antigenic drift rates, or have you seen Bedford’s recent plots? I am curious if the substitution rate has slowed at all. One surprise to me which I was wrong about was the very rapid drift. But I wonder after initial adaptation to human host whether it has slowed down over the last year. Seems like this might be visible in those plots now.
 
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But I think you have to look at intent, when judging these things with the clarity of hindsight. Kind of a slippery slope argument I know, but overall, the medical professionals and disease control experts did the best they could based on limited knowledge.

There is some evidence coming out that government and social\media also did the best they could to censor or deplatform those with alternative opinions. Again, while the intent may have been "good", the difficulty resides in who decides what is "true?
 
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There is some evidence coming out that government and social\media also did the best they could to censor or deplatform those with alternative opinions. Again, while the intent may have been "good", the difficulty resides in who decides what is "true?
I always thought it was very clear that Twitter employees decided how to implement their publicized misinformation policy with input from government agencies around the world. It’s bizarre to me that this is treated as some sort of new revelation. Did people think Twitter had their own independent research team?
I agree that it is a hard problem. Twitter has now removed their Covid misinformation policy so we’ll see if that improves the accuracy of information.
 
There is some evidence coming out that government and social\media also did the best they could to censor or deplatform those with alternative opinions. Again, while the intent may have been "good", the difficulty resides in who decides what is "true?
I would propose that there is an ethical reason to deplatform those who have influence and are who proponents of treatments like injecting disinfectants and use of a drug with no benefit but potential side effects, such as hydroxychloroquine. These ideas are actually dangerous and, in my opinion, should not be on display for those who are incapable of making a good judgement. Unless you just hate ignorant people and wish to see them harmed or killed.

Who decides? Hopefully, ethical scientists and those who support them.
 
I would propose that there is an ethical reason to deplatform those who have influence and are who proponents of treatments like injecting disinfectants and use of a drug with no benefit but potential side effects, such as hydroxychloroquine. These ideas are actually dangerous and, in my opinion, should not be on display for those who are incapable of making a good judgement. Unless you just hate ignorant people and wish to see them harmed or killed.

Who decides? Hopefully, ethical scientists and those who support them.

I am mostly concerned about censoring credentialed physicians, scientists or professors. I don't remember any of these folks promoting injecting disinfectants or Clorox.
 
I would propose that there is an ethical reason to deplatform those who have influence and are who proponents of treatments like injecting disinfectants and use of a drug with no benefit but potential side effects, such as hydroxychloroquine. These ideas are actually dangerous and, in my opinion, should not be on display for those who are incapable of making a good judgement. Unless you just hate ignorant people and wish to see them harmed or killed.

Who decides? Hopefully, ethical scientists and those who support them.
Well said, and precisely why the response to covid was/is unique in the history of modern medicine. Not just the scale of the epidemic but the nature of the response. Modern infrastructures, mass communications, political influences and control, and corporate influences, all of which can be manipulated for gain, with little regard or understanding of effect.

In the US we have a well-established and experienced disaster response system, but a system only structured or experienced with local disasters. We have no structure or experience dealing with a nationwide disaster, much less worldwide. Even with local responses, there are always manipulations for interested gains. Katrina is the easy example. With covid we needed leadership to organize a true national response. That never happened. Leadership was in the bathroom injecting bleach, the only concern personal gain. All classic but avoidable. It's not at all surprising then our division and that the uninformed have no trust in the process or the science. That they run blindly screaming down conspiracy lane. That population terrified of being controlled, told what to do, given rules. Yet historically well known as the easiest to manipulate and control population. A population that will do anything they are told as long as manipulated under the right pretense. So we are stuck in a divide, yet the real process will advance unnoticed, those doing the real work, with a true commitment, will carry on, while others fight on the streets and in the media, social or otherwise, all to no purpose other than distraction.
 
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Not really sure what to think about this. Seems good to test I suppose. Definitely going to discourage travel to/from China though not as much as the weeks-long quarantine did.

I’m not sure how much good this really does though, since tons of people will have a negative test result, but be positive within a couple days of arrival. Seems mostly pointless.



A lot of COVID in China! I thought the claim was that they were hiding all their COVID infections three years ago? Lol.

The transparency without official transparency is exactly what was expected, of course.
 
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A lot of COVID in China! I thought the claim was that they were hiding all their COVID infections three years ago? Lol.
They let the Wuhan strain rip through but then did zero COVID for Omicron. Duh.
Just kidding, they had natural immunity that just recently wore off because of immunity debt. There was a previous coronavirus that infected all of China, Asia, and Oceania but somehow not Wuhan or the rest of the world.
I wonder if there is some level of virus in the air that you could get reinfected even after a recent recovery? A researcher should get volunteers to test N95 effectiveness by flying back and forth to China.