AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Good to see deaths finally starting to drop again.
ICU numbers down 20% from peak as well, so hopefully they will keep dropping.
I am not optimistic about the chances of getting to levels from April or the prior year on cases, and deaths. But hopefully it happens.
In the past I would have thought there was real potential to get to low levels, but it seems like there is no way we’ll get to a point where a winter surge won’t happen. It just seems to be like Trevor Bedford models, where waning immunity and the transmissibility are just too much to allow a drop to extremely low levels, like influenza.
Hopefully he is wrong for the first time, though.
The only hope I have is that our underascertainment of infections has actually not been as high as we thought (traditionally 3-4x, but maybe it is as low as 2-2.5x), which would increase the likelihood of lower overall disease levels once everyone actually has some immunity.
Have to be honest, don’t have a lot of confidence in the booster either - though I do think it will very likely help make it really mild if I do get it.
Been nice to not be sick at all for the past three years. Infection control really works! Prior to the pandemic I had already started being careful with door handles and hand hygiene, which helped a bit, but never realized just how readily things could spread via the air.
ICU numbers down 20% from peak as well, so hopefully they will keep dropping.
I am not optimistic about the chances of getting to levels from April or the prior year on cases, and deaths. But hopefully it happens.
In the past I would have thought there was real potential to get to low levels, but it seems like there is no way we’ll get to a point where a winter surge won’t happen. It just seems to be like Trevor Bedford models, where waning immunity and the transmissibility are just too much to allow a drop to extremely low levels, like influenza.
Hopefully he is wrong for the first time, though.
The only hope I have is that our underascertainment of infections has actually not been as high as we thought (traditionally 3-4x, but maybe it is as low as 2-2.5x), which would increase the likelihood of lower overall disease levels once everyone actually has some immunity.
Have to be honest, don’t have a lot of confidence in the booster either - though I do think it will very likely help make it really mild if I do get it.
Been nice to not be sick at all for the past three years. Infection control really works! Prior to the pandemic I had already started being careful with door handles and hand hygiene, which helped a bit, but never realized just how readily things could spread via the air.
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