Coronavirus

[Norbert]

United States Coronavirus: 336,851 Cases and 9,620 Deaths - Worldometer

Worldometers now has per-capita numbers for each state (not only for countries). Sortable.
And also numbers of tests for each state.

 

[erha]

I think there is a possibility the apperent drop in cases might be because of slower reporting and testing during the weekend

 

[jerry33]

Social isolation is getting real around here. This morning I saw a neighbor talking to her cat. It was obvious she thought her cat understood her.

Where is the "this is normal" selection?

 

[wdolson]

Put a fraction on "small."

Mortality rate of COVID-19 patients on ventilators | Physician's Weekly

A paper from China that studied 710 people diagnosed with COVID-19, 52 were admitted to ICU, and 22 needed ventilators. That's 3% of identified patients. We also know that some percentage of cases are mild enough or asymptomatic and are rarely detected.

 

[Prunesquallor]

COVID-19 Estimation Updates

Interesting info regarding the updates to the April 5 IHME model.

1) Data from Italy and Spain indicate shorter time to death rate peaking following social distancing policy implementation (previously only had Wuhan data).

2) Different weightings used for various social distancing policies (early schools closures may be more effective than others).

3) Uncertainty estimates include effects of quantity of input data.

4) Using "adaptive priors" rather than "p-model" (social distancing a co-variate on final death rate) in the statistical predictions provide better model stability for states with very low number of data points.

Also, many changes in the hospital resource modeling. This was not as interesting to me, so I didn’t dig into it.

 

[powertoold]

I think there is a possibility the apperent drop in cases might be because of slower reporting and testing during the weekend

You guys are funny. We're still waiting for the 2m USA deaths.

 

[traxila]

You guys are funny. We're still waiting for the 2m USA deaths.

Think we can say that we are not going to get there. Because we scared the hell out of everyone. But that is how this is supposed to work.

I would hope that everyone would be happy with a lower death count but everything has been politicized in all walks of life. If too many die, we did not respond properly and someone should pay the price. If too few people die (whatever that number is) then we overreacted and destroyed our economy for no reason and someone should pay the price.

Is there a Goldilocks scenario where just the right amount of people die?

Think we should be grateful that this virus isn’t slightly more lethal, because our response would not have been any different.

 

[powertoold]

Is there a Goldilocks scenario where just the right amount of people die?

I understand the difficulty of the situation. It just seems some people want it to be more FUDy than others.

Less testing over the weekend, however true that might be, won't affect the death count much, which is coming down big time all across the world.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Think we can say that we are not going to get there. Because we scared the hell out of everyone. But that is how this is supposed to work.

If it's all the same to everyone else, I'd like to avoid this nonsense logic as we unpack all the data. Freaking out and going into mediocre ineffective lockdown did not push the death toll down from 2.2M to 70k.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Less testing over the weekend, however true that might be, won't affect the death count much, which is coming down big time all across the world.

We'll that's completely untrue. These next two weeks are going to pack an entire flu season into 14 days. Gonna be ugly as hell.

 

[DanCar]

I think there is a possibility the apperent drop in cases might be because of slower reporting and testing during the weekend

Yes, that has been true past several weekends, followed by a spike on Monday and continuing to Tuesday data.

 

[traxila]

I understand the difficulty of the situation. It just seems some people want it to be more FUDy than others.

Less testing over the weekend, however true that might be, won't affect the death count much, which is coming down big time all across the world.

And it is quite a relief that it is. Like a screw slowly turning in the other direction, releasing stress and pressure. Least it feels that way for me.

Europe seems to be legitimately on the way down. Think it is prudent to wait for a real trend to emerge in USA especially given the rolling and inconsistent lockdowns. Last thing I am sure anyone wants is an aborted removal of this lousy lockdown crap.

Sure would love to have testing everywhere on demand. That would really be a game changer.

 

[SageBrush]

ECDC data through Apr 5

Countries in Europe have peaked (in the context of a lockdown)

 

[traxila]

If it's all the same to everyone else, I'd like to avoid this nonsense logic as we unpack all the data. Freaking out and going into mediocre ineffective lockdown did not push the death toll down from 2.2M to 70k.

This was the option that was given to us based on our complete lack of proaction. You claim it was ineffective yet the alternative was to simply let it burn through the population. It that not hard to see where the 2.2 comes from given only a 1% death rate, but like I already said, everyone is going to be unhappy with the death totals in the end. Unless they were one of them, in which case they do not care.

 

[ZeApelido]

Anyone with an IQ in the set of positive integers will not stop social distancing until a vaccine is developed and has been deployed.

What's an integer?

So how does this fit in with people getting back to work and being productive? Restaurants, tourism will still be hit hard in this, but perhaps Tesla manufacturing will be back to normal.

I'm trying to get a sense of the the overall economic impact will be, and of course potential impact on demand for Tesla's luxury vehicles.

 

[Krugerrand]

But isn't that what we do at TMC? Armchair quaterback.

In all seriousness, there are glaring errors that are not acceptable under any circumstance, and that is the attempted coverup of the disease and the suppression of information. Many here, myself among them, consider those "unforgivable sins."

Your high horse keeps getting higher. Careful. I suspect you don’t bounce as well as you once did.

 

[SageBrush]

So how does this fit in with people getting back to work and being productive?

Look to Asia

 

[SageBrush]

Mortality rate of COVID-19 patients on ventilators | Physician's Weekly

A paper from China that studied 710 people diagnosed with COVID-19, 52 were admitted to ICU, and 22 needed ventilators. That's 3% of identified patients. We also know that some percentage of cases are mild enough or asymptomatic and are rarely detected.

You are cherry picking. There are much larger data sets, and you should remember that boris is fat.

I'll help you: overall 1/4 hospitalized end up on a vent and ~ 80% of those on a vent die.

 

[kbM3]

Correct.

We have to keep social distancing up until one of the following:
1) there is a vaccine
2) enough people get and recover for there to be herd immunity
3) we come up with a good antiviral medication that we can mass distribute

My understanding is that we will be able to relax social distancing by:
4) After reduction to manageable number of infections, implementation of massive testing, quarantining and contact tracing. (Although I haven’t seen any plans from US leadership along these lines).

 

[N5329K]

One projection...IHME...is now showing the pandemic peak coming one week sooner, and lower, for California. April 14th rather than April 21st.
Robin