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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
IHME | COVID-19 Projections
Projections updated today (Apr 5).
Death projection to August dropped from 96K to 82K.
Projections updated today (Apr 5).
Death projection to August dropped from 96K to 82K.
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dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Coronavirus: Prime Minister Boris Johnson admitted to hospital for COVID-19 tests
apparently he's had it for 10 days and it's about time for ventilator assist and recovery or ventilator assist and demise. (no mention of ventilator need in article but you have to assume considering the normal path)
apparently he's had it for 10 days and it's about time for ventilator assist and recovery or ventilator assist and demise. (no mention of ventilator need in article but you have to assume considering the normal path)
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Peak NYS death rate in 4 days. Still big peak magnitude uncertainty.
Norbert
TSLA will win
Even though the peak daily number of deaths increased (as I predicted) from 2644 to 3130, but not (yet) further into the future, staying on April 16, in spite of that the total number did go down.
Also the predicted peak number of ventilators went down, from 32,581 on April 12, to 25,004 on April 16. Since the date changed as well, this might be because there is less assumed overlap between hot spots.
Social isolation is getting real around here. This morning I saw a neighbor talking to her cat. It was obvious she thought her cat understood her. I came into my house, told my dog..... we laughed a lot.
deonb
Active Member
Probably fairly good odds that he'll get convalescent plasma therapy.
Only a small percentage of people need a ventilator. For someone that high up on the food chain the doctors are going to be overly cautious about everything health related. Boris Johnson is not recovering as fast as they would like to see, so they are being cautious and checking him out. I don't see any indication he's got a life threatening case.
But I did include the publishing of prices as a criteria for being accepted into the MMFA system, as well as a protection mechanism for runaway prices, as someone is bound to want to undercut the competition to gain more volume.
So doctors who don't wish to receive those patients will have to depend on a potentially dwindling supply of patients.
As for drug prices, award the drug contracts based on a 60/30/10 ratio. Lowest bidder gets 60% of the orders, 2nd lowest gets 30%, 3rd gets 10% and none for the rest. Supply contracts should be reviewed/renewed at least bi-annually. That should preserve the manufacturing base with incentives to keep the prices down.
Since every wage earner already pays into medicare, might as well fund it correctly, so that they can ALL make use of it as well.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
The reddit thread about that article has almost 10,000 posts on it so far. They've been discussing 2 recent videos where he spoke of his condition and sounded short on breath.
They also mention he is overweight, he's old, and he had childhood pneumonia (which they imply make him higher than average risk)
Then this was posted suggesting he is on the part of the timeline where Sepsis and/or ARDS would kick in.
note, I'm not saying they are 100% correct, just trying to share a TL;DR style recap of the high points I saw in that thread. If the Prime Minister pulls through without hitting sepsis, ARDS, or needing to be ventilated you can mock me lightly and I'll take my shame. If he gets worse I won't shout I told you so, I'm not claiming any great insight.
There might be hope yet. Today marks the first day that there had been ANY recovered cases in Florida - 100. Prior to today, all the worldometers' numbers were either active cases or dead.
Not to say that the infected Florida people didn't all go home to their home States?
I have to wonder if they would say at this point. Reportedly he still has a high fever. Likely admitted for lung scan and heart monitoriing. Wasn't he one of the guys like Trump also touting hydroxychloroquine?
I saw this updated CNN report on the continuing discussion about the appropriateness of this. Heated disagreement breaks out in Situation Room over hydroxychloroquine - CNNPolitics
It was reported that Trump said the US government had ordered 29M doses of hydroxychloroquine.
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The Verge story on Apple's efforts to source more than 20 million mask and their latest efforts to manufacture face shields. The first batch has gone out to Kaiser Hospital in Santa Clara County.
Tim Cook on Twitter
Tim Cook on Twitter
China sees rise in asymptomatic cases and restricts some previous Epidemic Free residential zone as a result.
China sees rise in asymptomatic coronavirus cases
China sees rise in asymptomatic coronavirus cases
The reddit thread about that article has almost 10,000 posts on it so far. They've been discussing 2 recent videos where he spoke of his condition and sounded short on breath.
They also mention he is overweight, he's old, and he had childhood pneumonia (which they imply make him higher than average risk)
Then this was posted suggesting he is on the part of the timeline where Sepsis and/or ARDS would kick in.
note, I'm not saying they are 100% correct, just trying to share a TL;DR style recap of the high points I saw in that thread. If the Prime Minister pulls through without hitting sepsis, ARDS, or needing to be ventilated you can mock me lightly and I'll take my shame. If he gets worse I won't shout I told you so, I'm not claiming any great insight.
Maybe he is at risk. The last PM to die in office died in 1865.
@bkp_duke posted something earlier today that there is some evidence at least some of the people who are getting sickest with COVID-19 have multiple infections. If true, it's possible that hydroxychloroquine may help with some of the secondary infections and thus help overall. I'm just speculating here.
One of the side effects is it can affect the heart and COVID-19 can cause heart damage too. The antibiotic combined with hydrochloquine is also pretty hard on the body. The "cure" could turn out to be worse than the disease. We'll probably know one way or the other in a week or so.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
nope, I had been taking the total cases column, and subtracted both the total deaths and active cases. The remainder would be the recovered cases, which had been zero up until today when 100 cases were listed
Tiger
Active Member
Would be interesting to see comparison to actual numbers (instead of averages), as one would expect, for example, Accidents to reduce due to quarantine and social distancing.
Norbert
TSLA will win
I think China doesn't do the same careful tracing as South Korea, relying more on quarantine.
Quarantine will bring out symptomatic cases within a few weeks, and if you quarantine each possibly asymptomatic person completely separately, then after some time the virus should die. (Although there might be exceptions in that case as well.)
However if you have the possibility of sequences of asymptomatic cases infecting each other, then no matter how long you wait, a certain number of infections may remain after any amount of time, if the group is large enough.
So if China isolates apartment buildings as a whole, then there will be a certain number of buildings in which by coincidence there are several asymptomatic cases that are slowly, step-by-step infecting each other, one after the other, so that even after several months, there can be infections remaining, by coincidence without anyone showing symptoms.
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