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And...he repeats the lie. What an idiot. Once again he can claim he was talking about antibody tests (he's not). At least he got the stock to $1087; that's really all that matters, after all. :rolleyes: Guess I can afford to add on that FSD for $3k now, to support his continued lunacy. Somehow I don't really feel like it though.

Screen Shot 2020-06-30 at 2.07.37 PM.png


https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1278067411309166597?s=20
 
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the middle ages were a lot more than 100 years ago; or are we taking relativistic effects into account, for some reason?

Ignoring the risk that this is a Whooosh! incident on my side...they are presumably talking about the Spanish Flu:

Spanish flu - Wikipedia
"The Spanish flu, also known as the 1918 flu pandemic, was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic caused by the H1N1 influenza A virus. Lasting February 1918 to April 1920, it infected 500 million people–about a third of the world's population at the time–in four successive waves. The death toll may have been anything from 17 million to 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million, making it one of the deadliest pandemics in human history."
 

At first I thought this guy's account must have been hacked. Not so:
--------------
Wendell Potter
@wendellpotter
Former VP, @cigna
. Whistleblower and reformed insurance propagandist. President, @M4A_NOW, @BusinessM4A
. Media inquiries: [email protected].
---------------
Wendell Potter @wendellpotter Jun 26
My wording above may have been unclear, so I want to clarify: I’m not *currently* an insurance exec. I left in 2008 when I finally developed a conscience. Since then, my mission’s been to expose & reform this awful system. Please consider supporting @M4A_NOW
so we can save lives.
---------------

Though I'd say the quality and accessibility of a country's healthcare system is only one of many factors that affect the impact Covid-19 has on a population.
 
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And...he repeats the lie. What an idiot. Once again he can claim he was talking about antibody tests (he's not). At least he got the stock to $1087; that's really all that matters, after all. :rolleyes: Guess I can afford to add on that FSD for $3k now, to support his continued lunacy. Somehow I don't really feel like it though.

View attachment 558769

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1278067411309166597?s=20
Clearly we should be using Australia's tests. They only have a 0.3% false positive rate! :rolleyes:
Obviously the actual false positive rate is far lower than 0.3% since 90% of the cases have known origin.
Australia was so close to eliminating COVID. Looks like they've gotten it down to only being in one state.
Screen Shot 2020-06-30 at 2.18.16 PM.png
 
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Clearly we should be using Australia's tests. They only have a 0.3% false positive rate! :rolleyes:
Obviously the actual false positive rate is far lower than 0.3% since 90% of the cases have known origin.
Australia was so close to eliminating COVID. Looks like they've gotten it down to only being in one state.
View attachment 558775
But that trendline the last two weeks of June is not good at all.
 
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Tomorrow should be a telling data dump. I'm seeing something like 8 deaths in PA yesterday. Interested to see how many flow through from the weekend delayed figures.

Looks like you guys definitely have a hint of problems to come in Pennsylvania (rising positive cases along with rising test numbers, with positive tests exceeding the growth of tests about 2 weeks ago). I recommend you guys close your bars and enforce the rules using law enforcement. Will prevent you from becoming California. Talk to your leadership if you can.
 
This is the problem with the "binary" sciences like math, physics, and "binary applied" like the applied engineering disciplines. These individuals ask yes/no questions and expect yes/no answers. Biological sciences are basically . . . analog / shades of grey. It's extremely rare to get a binary answer to a question in the biological sciences, unless that question is extremely focused (i.e. has accounted for all variables except one). It is this multi-factor variability which gives medicine it's "art" aspect (i.e. some people are just better at it than others).

Good one. You have a very sophisticated sense of humor. Responding to a post about experts in one field believing they have expertise in others, you pretend to have a stunning lack of comprehension about other fields, including not even understanding the definition of binary.

‘Well played Sir:)
 
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Good one. You have a very sophisticated sense of humor. Responding to a post about experts in one field believing they have expertise in others, you pretend to have a stunning lack of comprehension about other fields, including not even understanding the definition of binary.

‘Well played Sir:)

I'm going to assume you don't know me (you probably don't), but under any objective measurement I would be qualified to make the statement you quoted.

I majored in Chemistry in college (a pretty "binary" science) before moving along to the biological sciences and getting a Ph.D. in molecular biology (non-binary) and an M.D. (very non-binary).

My comment was as much one of my own experiences and having to re-learn how to think between the different disciplines (chemists don't think like doctors or molecular biologists), as it was an observation.

I've since moved on to running a Cloud computing company (VERY much binary), although, admittedly, the reason is simply to have a far better home life than medicine or science affords currently.

Anything further you would like to discuss?
 
I'm going to assume you don't know me (you probably don't), but under any objective measurement I would be qualified to make the statement you quoted.

I majored in Chemistry in college (a pretty "binary" science) before moving along to the biological sciences and getting a Ph.D. in molecular biology (non-binary) and an M.D. (very non-binary).

My comment was as much one of my own experiences and having to re-learn how to think between the different disciplines (chemists don't think like doctors or molecular biologists), as it was an observation.

I've since moved on to running a Cloud computing company (VERY much binary), although, admittedly, the reason is simply to have a far better home life than medicine or science affords currently.

Anything further you would like to discuss?
I'm an electrical engineer and I use statistics and probability all the time. :p
 
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the middle ages were a lot more than 100 years ago; or are we taking relativistic effects into account, for some reason?

Today most people in the developed world do not know someone who wasn't ill with something else who died of an infectious disease you could catch anywhere. For example the common flu kills thousands every winter, but most of the people who die of the flu are elderly or have a serious illness that makes them more vulnerable like cystic-fibrosis. It's very rare for someone who is a healthy 45 year old to get the flu and die.

People talk about how the life expectancy at birth in 1900 in the US was 46. There is a wrinkle hidden in that data because of how prevalent deadly infectious diseases were then. If you look at life expectancy at age 5, it jumps well into the 60s. It was very common for every family to lose at least one child before age 5 from a disease that hits very few people today (or extinct like small pox).

The environment people lived in, knowing someone who got suddenly sick and died, especially a small child, was pretty common. The 1918 flu pandemic was an unusually bad outbreak, but other diseases we get inoculated for as children today were part of the background noise killing people at a steady rate.

Common bacteria infections took a lot of people too. My mother went through nursing school in the late 40s/early 50s when antibiotics were just becoming common in civilian use. She said her course on bacterial infections was particularly difficult to square the textbook with the reality she was seeing in the hospital. She had to do a paper on a particular pathogen and the textbook said the fatality rate was near 100%. She had to do a case study on a patient and the kid she was studying was bouncing off the walls with boredom because all signs of the infection were gone.

As soon as the course ended she chucked the textbook in the trash. It was completely useless.

In the 1950s on two separate occasions he was working on a project with someone on Friday and found out on Monday they had developed polio over the weekend. In one case the guy he was working with died very quickly and in the other case the guy ended up in an iron lung.

My father was always out on the end of the bell curve with his immune system. He got none of the childhood diseases his peers got. In WW II his unit was sent to New Guinea and the Philippines. He came back in the spring of 1945 and the other half of the unit that had been stateside was being send to the Aleutians. One guy came down with an appendicitis just before shipping out and they had to replace him with someone who had just come back from the Pacific. My father and one other guy were the only two that didn't have some tropical disease.

Only the oldest among us lived through a time when highly infectious diseases were killing people they knew. When people are dumped into a dangerous situation that is related to other things they have been through, they adjust more easily than someone who has never experienced anything similar. When people are thrown into a completely new situation, quite a few will develop PTSD.
 
Looks like you guys definitely have a hint of problems to come in Pennsylvania (rising positive cases along with rising test numbers, with positive tests exceeding the growth of tests about 2 weeks ago). I recommend you guys close your bars and enforce the rules using law enforcement. Will prevent you from becoming California. Talk to your leadership if you can.
We're doing just fine. Masks are mandatory in almost all businesses, people are complying. Restaurants/Bar open a week or so now, outdoor service only. Had some flat out amazing wings at Sancho Pistola's last night and they even had Russian River Oils on tap. No masks while seated and eating. All tables spaced at least 6ft in all directions.

I don't think we're gonna have a big surge, but you never know.

Masks indoors everywhere and outside most of the time. That's pretty much the only difference between us and some harder hit states. They're so clearly the difference maker.
 
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