Coronavirus

[AlanSubie4Life]

Sept 5th:

My prediction (which is also a wild guess) is 310k deaths by the end of 2020.

Don’t look yet (give it a week), but looks to me like we might be starting to hit a local minimum. If so, I suspect we’ll be back to 70k cases a day by mid-October, assuming a similar case ascertainment rate. Maybe we will hit 100k per day by Election Day!

Looks like I was about 2 days early on the local minimum. 70k in mid-October looks about right (Worldometer looks like it will be over 66k today, since they have another hour); we'll see how tomorrow looks!

This is awful. 100k cases per day by Election Day looks very possible, but hopefully does not happen. Since we're "going herd" not sure why it would not happen. I suspect this is going to make SEC & NFL football very difficult to successfully execute going forward, given their current strategy. (Really the least of our worries!)

310k by January 1st looks likely to be on the low side, but we'll see. Depends on therapeutics. Maybe 330-350k would be a better bet. All depends on what we do; it's not all baked in just yet.

 

[NikolaACDC]

Study: Risk Of Covid-19 Transmission On Planes ‘Virtually Nonexistent’ For Mask-Wearers

"Announced Thursday, the results of the study showed that the aggressive air filtration and circulation systems on planes lead to the near-immediate dispersal of particles carrying the infection.

Per these results, it would take a minimum of 54 hours of sitting next to someone with Covid-19 to be exposed to an infectious dose.
...
“99.99% of those particles left the interior of the aircraft within six minutes,” said United Airlines Chief Communication Officer Josh Earnest at a Politico event announcing the results which concluded that risk when masked is “virtually nonexistent” and signaled “being on board an aircraft is the safest indoor public space,” in the words of Earnest.

The researchers ran 300 different tests in total, experimenting with different placement of mannequins around the cabins of Boeing 777 and 767 planes, and testing the differences of planes in the sky and on the ground."

---------------------------
Good to know.
Not that I'm planning to get on a plane anytime soon. Beyond planes it also involves airports with gropy TSA people.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Study: Risk Of Covid-19 Transmission On Planes ‘Virtually Nonexistent’ For Mask-Wearers

"Announced Thursday, the results of the study showed that the aggressive air filtration and circulation systems on planes lead to the near-immediate dispersal of particles carrying the infection.

Per these results, it would take a minimum of 54 hours of sitting next to someone with Covid-19 to be exposed to an infectious dose.
...
“99.99% of those particles left the interior of the aircraft within six minutes,” said United Airlines Chief Communication Officer Josh Earnest at a Politico event announcing the results which concluded that risk when masked is “virtually nonexistent” and signaled “being on board an aircraft is the safest indoor public space,” in the words of Earnest.

The researchers ran 300 different tests in total, experimenting with different placement of mannequins around the cabins of Boeing 777 and 767 planes, and testing the differences of planes in the sky and on the ground."

---------------------------
Good to know.
Not that I'm planning to get on a plane anytime soon. Beyond planes it also involves airports with gropy TSA people.

Study by the International Air Transport Association. ha.
SARS-2 is so widespread that it's impossible to tell exactly where people are getting it. I wonder what they define as a mask? an N95?
Here's one of the studies they reference: Transmission of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 During Long Flight 15 people infected. I guess their claim is that this was just bad luck? If it was really improbable I would expect to see almost all the case studies show only one transmission.
I would feel safe flying with a properly fitted respirator.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Study: Risk Of Covid-19 Transmission On Planes ‘Virtually Nonexistent’ For Mask-Wearers

"Announced Thursday, the results of the study showed that the aggressive air filtration and circulation systems on planes lead to the near-immediate dispersal of particles carrying the infection.

Per these results, it would take a minimum of 54 hours of sitting next to someone with Covid-19 to be exposed to an infectious dose.
...
“99.99% of those particles left the interior of the aircraft within six minutes,” said United Airlines Chief Communication Officer Josh Earnest at a Politico event announcing the results which concluded that risk when masked is “virtually nonexistent” and signaled “being on board an aircraft is the safest indoor public space,” in the words of Earnest.

The researchers ran 300 different tests in total, experimenting with different placement of mannequins around the cabins of Boeing 777 and 767 planes, and testing the differences of planes in the sky and on the ground."

---------------------------
Good to know.
Not that I'm planning to get on a plane anytime soon. Beyond planes it also involves airports with gropy TSA people.

I mean, I would love this to be true, and I hope it is true for Biden's sake, and I suspect the air circulation on planes helps a lot.

"it would take a minimum of 54 hours of sitting next to someone with Covid-19 to be exposed to an infectious dose."

But that, I find very dubious, in the real world. Have to consider the source, for sure. Clearly a LOT of transmission has occurred on planes (without masking, though!). There have been several studies published (linked elsewhere here). So it's not like the air circulation is magical.

Did they adjust the air circulation settings in the last 7 months? Maybe. Do masks help? Certainly!

But would I want to sit next to someone with COVID-19 (with both people masked - let's call it surgical masks) for 10 hours on a plane, and do I think that would be safe? No. Am I getting on a plane? No.

As a practical matter, masks won't stay on 100% of the time, either.

The results here do seem to generally align with my impression (I don't have a link to any such study - maybe it's not true...) that most flight attendants have NOT caught the virus.

 

[Daniel in SD]

"it would take a minimum of 54 hours of sitting next to someone with Covid-19 to be exposed to an infectious dose."

I'm still unclear what people mean my minimum infectious dose. I get the impression it means the amount of virus that will infect 50% of people?

Investigations into the MID of human viruses have typically involved the experimental administration of the virus and the use of dose response data to determine the viral concentration required to infect 50% of the population (Human ID50; HID50) or concentrations required to infect lesser percentages of the populations such as HID10 and HID1. Since determining the HID10 and HID1 requires a large number of test subjects to achieve statistically significant values, making it a time-consuming and expensive process, most human MIDs have been expressed as HID50.

Is the HID5 approximately 10 times less than the HID50?

The use of mathematical models to extrapolate dose-response experimental data to extremely low exposure levels combined with the likely underestimation of the MID through the use of HID50 to express the MID and the experimental limitations outlined above, are some of the reasons why the concept of MID as a threshold below which infection cannot occur has received criticism. As consequence, the notion that a single pathogen may be capable of causing infection (single-hit model) has steadily gained support especially in relation to viruses (Haas 1983; Haas et al. 1993; Teunis and Havelaar 2000).

Minimum Infective Dose of the Major Human Respiratory and Enteric Viruses Transmitted Through Food and the Environment

We need challenge trials!

 

[Norbert]

United States Coronavirus: 7,991,998 Cases and 219,695 Deaths - Worldometer

In the last 2 weeks, the 7-day average of US new cases went up by 20%.

Now above 50,000/day. And is apparently on a a steep upward trend.

Quoting myself from Oct 11th.

We are now more than 30% above the Sept 27th value of daily new cases.

 

[Open Interest]

Study: Risk Of Covid-19 Transmission On Planes ‘Virtually Nonexistent’ For Mask-Wearers

"Announced Thursday, the results of the study showed that the aggressive air filtration and circulation systems on planes lead to the near-immediate dispersal of particles carrying the infection.

Per these results, it would take a minimum of 54 hours of sitting next to someone with Covid-19 to be exposed to an infectious dose.
...
“99.99% of those particles left the interior of the aircraft within six minutes,” said United Airlines Chief Communication Officer Josh Earnest at a Politico event announcing the results which concluded that risk when masked is “virtually nonexistent” and signaled “being on board an aircraft is the safest indoor public space,” in the words of Earnest.

The researchers ran 300 different tests in total, experimenting with different placement of mannequins around the cabins of Boeing 777 and 767 planes, and testing the differences of planes in the sky and on the ground."

---------------------------
Good to know.
Not that I'm planning to get on a plane anytime soon. Beyond planes it also involves airports with gropy TSA people.

Is this a legitimate study? Peer reviewed? Replicated? It would be good news but I’m skeptical. Doesn’t seem arm’s length.

 

[NikolaACDC]

Study finds remdesivir, hydroxychloroquine have 'little' impact on mortality in COVID-19 patients

"A clinical trial conducted by the World Health Organization found that
Gilead Sciences Inc.'s remdesivir,
hydroxychloroquine,
AbbVie's ABBV, 1.62% lopinavir/ritonavir
and interferon
did not impact mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients. In a preprint, which is medical research that has not been peer-reviewed, researchers said that the four antiviral drugs had "little or no effect" on overall mortality, ventilation, and length of hospital stay among the 11,330 patients participating in the study.
-------
Preprint link here
Repurposed antiviral drugs for COVID-19; interim WHO SOLIDARITY trial results

"No study drug definitely reduced mortality (in unventilated patients or any other subgroup of entry characteristics), initiation of ventilation or hospitalisation duration.
CONCLUSIONS
These Remdesivir, Hydroxychloroquine, Lopinavir and Interferon regimens appeared to have little or no effect on hospitalized COVID-19, as indicated by overall mortality, initiation of ventilation and duration of hospital stay. The mortality findings contain most of the randomized evidence on Remdesivir and Interferon, and are consistent with meta-analyses of mortality in all major trials."

 

[Norbert]

How the Trump admin devastated the CDC—and continues to cripple it

"From missteps to blatant political interference, CDC's fall is a national tragedy."

The article goes through several different subtopics.

 

[wdolson]

An anecdotal observation. I had to go to Morro Bay, CA this week for my father's funeral (he was 100). I drove from here near Portland.

Most of the route is through rural Oregon and California where the messaging from the federal government has had more impact than the state, but Morro Bay is more liberal and more likely to trust the state messaging. I was surprised at just how lax people were about social distancing and mask wearing.

The funeral was all outdoors and people spread out fairly well. They are having unusually hot weather on the Central Coast right now. According to the car's thermometer it hit 91F only two short blocks from the Pacific Ocean. Because of the weather there were lots of people out in town.

Most people at the funeral wore masks, but several didn't even carry one. My step niece was one of them (she's only 2 years younger than I am). My mother's pastor was there too (my parents were different religions) and he looked to be about 65-70 and he didn't have a mask either. There was a strong wind and I was upwind from everyone with only my father's pastor downwind from me (and over 10 feet away).

I'm glad it was outdoors. I can attest the UV was pretty intense, I got sunburned.

On the way back in Red Bluff, CA I got some breakfast to go from the restaurant next to the hotel and was shocked to see the woman on the cash register had no mask and actually licked her fingers to separate a bag. I only got a glance at the cook and they appeared to be masked up. After paying I stopped at my car before going back to the room and sprayed everything with alcohol. The food was in a plastic container so it was fine. When I opened the container I washed my hands again before eating and didn't touch the outside again until i was done.

Grants Pass, OR supercharger is at the Black Bear restaurant. On the way back the restaurant was full with what appeared to be people at every table. I used the restroom as quickly as possible and got out of there.

North of Grants Pass things were more "normal" around the Springfield supercharger (just outside Eugene). Everybody was masked up if around other people and nobody was getting very close to anyone else.

Overall California has fared much worst than Oregon and Washington.The only counties that have low per capita rates thus far are near the Oregon border and a few low population counties up in the Sierras. Cultures that do habitual mask wearing and culturally reinforce it (you get dirty looks around here and might get approached by store staff if you don't) really do appear to have fewer cases than cultures that take it as more a suggestion.

Though I admit all this is anecdotal.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Grants Pass, OR supercharger is at the Black Bear restaurant. On the way back the restaurant was full with what appeared to be people at every table. I used the restroom as quickly as possible and got out of there.

Yeah, I opted not to use the facilities at the Black Bear when I went through there back in August, for this reason. I definitely do not go into closed spaces where anyone is unmasked, ever. Turns out there are "other options" available.

Wasn't too thrilled about the piles of human waste lying behind the Supercharger in Mt. Shasta, though. Not sure why people can't pick up after themselves.

 

[wdolson]

Yeah, I opted not to use the facilities at the Black Bear when I went through there back in August, for this reason. I definitely do not go into closed spaces where anyone is unmasked, ever. Turns out there are "other options" available.

Wasn't too thrilled about the piles of human waste lying behind the Supercharger in Mt. Shasta, though. Not sure why people can't pick up after themselves.

They must have cleaned that up. I didn't see or smell anything at either Mt Shasta superchargers.

 

[SMAlset]

....

Overall California has fared much worst than Oregon and Washington.The only counties that have low per capita rates thus far are near the Oregon border and a few low population counties up in the Sierras. Cultures that do habitual mask wearing and culturally reinforce it (you get dirty looks around here and might get approached by store staff if you don't) really do appear to have fewer cases than cultures that take it as more a suggestion.

Though I admit all this is anecdotal.

From what I saw in the news today, Oregon is ready to break out if not careful. Several similar reports but this one is from The Oregonian:

If Oregonians don’t change their ways fast, new projections shows COVID-19 skyrocketing

BTW sorry to hear about your father.

 

[Norbert]

Overall California has fared much worst than Oregon and Washington.The only counties that have low per capita rates thus far are near the Oregon border and a few low population counties up in the Sierras.

In terms of deaths per capita, San Francisco County is about the same as Oregon overall. Considering that SF is a city, I'd expect there to be more counties, but I don't have a list or anything.

Sorry regarding your father!

 

[wdolson]

From what I saw in the news today, Oregon is ready to break out if not careful. Several similar reports but this one is from The Oregonian:

If Oregonians don’t change their ways fast, new projections shows COVID-19 skyrocketing

BTW sorry to hear about your father.

Thanks, he had a long life with 96 years of good health and was ready to be free from his broken body. He worked until his late 80s, never got any of the childhood diseases that took a number of his classmates, and I couldn't keep up with him on a hiking trail when he was 80. The last 4 years he was just killing time because he couldn't get around anymore.

I track the daily cases per capita here
Per capita covid-19 cases and deaths

Western Washington and Oregon are ticking up a bit, but it's the eastern parts of the state which have been the problem areas the last few months. Cross the Cascades and it becomes Trump country pretty quickly.

In terms of deaths per capita, San Francisco County is about the same as Oregon overall. Considering that SF is a city, I'd expect there to be more counties, but I don't have a list or anything.

Sorry regarding your father!

Most of the counties around SF county are a bit higher than SF. I have heard someone opine that San Francisco has been more successful than most of the rest of the state because they were ground zero for AIDS back in the 80s and there are still a lot of people around who have dealt with a deadly, infectious disease.

I think that's why Taiwan and South Korea were so successful too. They had SARS 17 years ago and people went right back to their anti-SARS habits immediately.

Across the US there is almost no living memory of a serious infectious disease outbreak except for a few areas where AIDS was a serious problem. So too many people acted stupidly because they couldn't get it into their head how dangerous the disease is. A big chunk of the population don't have very good imaginations, they need to experience something for it to become real.

 

[msm859]

Thanks, he had a long life with 96 years of good health and was ready to be free from his broken body. He worked until his late 80s, never got any of the childhood diseases that took a number of his classmates, and I couldn't keep up with him on a hiking trail when he was 80. The last 4 years he was just killing time because he couldn't get around anymore.

I track the daily cases per capita here
Per capita covid-19 cases and deaths

Western Washington and Oregon are ticking up a bit, but it's the eastern parts of the state which have been the problem areas the last few months. Cross the Cascades and it becomes Trump country pretty quickly.



Most of the counties around SF county are a bit higher than SF. I have heard someone opine that San Francisco has been more successful than most of the rest of the state because they were ground zero for AIDS back in the 80s and there are still a lot of people around who have dealt with a deadly, infectious disease.

I think that's why Taiwan and South Korea were so successful too. They had SARS 17 years ago and people went right back to their anti-SARS habits immediately.

Across the US there is almost no living memory of a serious infectious disease outbreak except for a few areas where AIDS was a serious problem. So too many people acted stupidly because they couldn't get it into their head how dangerous the disease is. A big chunk of the population don't have very good imaginations, they need to experience something for it to become real.

I would add that Asian countries also naturally have more concern for their fellow man. We visited Japan and it was readily obvious how people were considerate of others. Something that does not exist in the US. I doubt anyone in the Asian countries are fighting over having to "wear a mask" against their personal freedom. San Francisco is also a very progressive city not dumbed down by religion and right wing fanatics.

 

[PACEMD]

I would add that Asian countries also naturally have more concern for their fellow man.

What? Concern for fellow man?.......crazy commies........

 

[wdolson]

I would add that Asian countries also naturally have more concern for their fellow man. We visited Japan and it was readily obvious how people were considerate of others. Something that does not exist in the US. I doubt anyone in the Asian countries are fighting over having to "wear a mask" against their personal freedom. San Francisco is also a very progressive city not dumbed down by religion and right wing fanatics.

San Francisco also benefits from a very high average education level. The better educated the population, the more likely people are to understand why restrictions are there and they can adjust to situations not covered in the instructions by falling back on deeper knowledge.
For example I heard when the UK instituted the 2 meter social distancing rule some people almost got hit by cars jumping in the road to avoid ever being less than 2 m from anyone else they encountered on the sidewalk. The government had to issue more guidelines that it was safe to momentarily get closer to someone if you were passing them on the street or something similar. At least around here where the average education level is fairly high people seemed to figure that out for themselves (though I do hold my breath when I have to pass someone closer than 6 feet).
Japan is the most monolithic culture in the world and they have a tradition of all pulling together. Not all Asian cultures have the same cultural values. I grew up in an Asian community (a mix of Japanese, Koreans, and Chinese) and got sent to Singapore on business once. I flew through Japan coming and going.
I'm sure there are others here who can speak to the different Asian cultures from inside knowledge, but I found them all to be different from one another with differing levels of natural organization.

Note, I'm not saying any of this is genetic, it's just the way the different cultures evolved.

If we do have another bad pandemic of an infectious disease while a lot of the people around now are around, a larger percentage of the US population will probably adapt to mask wearing a lot quicker than it did this time.

 

[TEG]

The US is currently awash in a sea of mis-information and intentionally contrarian views, so attempts to organize everyone around a single focused cause is falling flat.
The media is divided and "at war" with "the other side", so people get lopsided viewpoints depending on which flavor of news they decide to follow.

Attempts to discredit our news and scientific views was a bad recipe leading up to a pandemic...

 

[TEG]

Now we may be entering a new era as more people "have beat the COVID" and feel like they fought the battle and won, so wonder why should they be locked down with the rest of us who didn't "face it down and win" yet.

Unless we get a viable vaccine, I can see a future where life goes back to normal for the masses that feel they dealt with it and are moving on, and aren't willing to make too many accommodations for the remaining "never been exposed" who try to remain isolated.

The "let's try for herd immunity" crowd will have the upper hand when they are the dominant majority.

Personally, I want to stay in isolation with the hope that a vaccine will be available relatively soon, and I don't have to test my immune system, and risk long term damage... But the way things are going, it is going to be harder and harder to keep justifying that position.

I don't think we have quite passed over into the above "point of no return", but I can see the writing on the wall that it may be coming.

I suspect that many people who already had COVID, and are out partying in Florida (for example) aren't tending to look at SF's (for example) ongoing attempts to control the spread with any admiration.