Coronavirus

[Norbert]

Now we may be entering a new era as more people "have beat the COVID" and feel like they fought the battle and won, so wonder why should they be locked down with the rest of us who didn't "face it down and win" yet.

Trump may try to project that image, and his followers may try to propagate it, but he isn't "more people", and it looks like his time will be over soon, if enough people go voting. Even recent estimates for herd immunity imply significantly more than 1 million deaths, so we are still a long way from that actually happening. And if hospitals and/or health care workers get overrun, it will be even more. So people may come to their senses, especially once T's status changes from "winner" to "loser".

I suspect that many people who already had COVID, and are out partying in Florida (for example) aren't tending to look at SF's (for example) ongoing attempts to control the spread with any admiration.

According to worldometers.info, Florida is going to report more than 4,000 new cases today, experts expect FL numbers in general to get worse soon. Florida's absolute death numbers will surpass California's in spite of California having almost twice the population.

EDIT: On Friday, according to John Hopkins University, 10 states reported their highest number of new cases ever. Such developments will count for something once they are not swept under the rug anymore.

 

[SMAlset]

Heard on KCBS this morning a report on another twice-infected covid person. Said he was a man, think 60, that had been infected months ago and hospitalized for I think they said 40+ days. Recovered and just now has become infected a second time. There’s probably something in the online news about his case.

While unknown how common a repeat infection will be, should give pause to all those who intentionally don’t take precautions and say well it wasn’t so bad when they got it before. Especially if second time around their body is now compromised from maybe damage done first go round to their heart, lungs, nervous system (ie thinking of those like athletes that had great in depth testing) that wasn’t detected but now is an underlying condition.

 

[TEG]

Yeah, if it becomes established that re-infection is a reality (and possibly worse on repeat bouts) that could have an impact on the narrative.

 

[TEG]

Florida's absolute death numbers will surpass California's in spite of California having almost twice the population.
EDIT: On Friday, according to John Hopkins University, 10 states reported their highest number of new cases ever. Such developments will count for something once they are not swept under the rug anymore.

I think the statistical numbers are lost on many people. Unless it affects them personally it may just be "random noise" and maybe even viewed as "probably just fake news".

 

[Norbert]

I think the statistical numbers are lost on many people. Unless it affects them personally it may just be "random noise" and maybe even viewed as "probably just fake news".

Certainly. Also many look at it from a "Am I willing to take the risk?" point of view, instead of asking: What is necessary to stop it, to prevent another 1 million people from dying, and to reduce it to being mostly a matter of extensive testing and Contact Tracing and needing more 'drastic' measures only when there is a re-emergence of local cases.

Many people aren't told that it is possible to almost stop the pandemic even without a vaccine. And that it doesn't require long term lockdowns, if any large scale ones at all.

I expect this will change to a good degree with the better medical leadership of a new administration (even if not completely), and a better understanding of what the "majority" wants. After all, T is getting much lower grades for handling the pandemic, according to polls.

 

[madodel]

Now we may be entering a new era as more people "have beat the COVID" and feel like they fought the battle and won, so wonder why should they be locked down with the rest of us who didn't "face it down and win" yet.

Unless we get a viable vaccine, I can see a future where life goes back to normal for the masses that feel they dealt with it and are moving on, and aren't willing to make too many accommodations for the remaining "never been exposed" who try to remain isolated.

The "let's try for herd immunity" crowd will have the upper hand when they are the dominant majority.

Personally, I want to stay in isolation with the hope that a vaccine will be available relatively soon, and I don't have to test my immune system, and risk long term damage... But the way things are going, it is going to be harder and harder to keep justifying that position.

I don't think we have quite passed over into the above "point of no return", but I can see the writing on the wall that it may be coming.

I suspect that many people who already had COVID, and are out partying in Florida (for example) aren't tending to look at SF's (for example) ongoing attempts to control the spread with any admiration.

Chris Christy must have missed the memo on this. He seems to think it's serious.
Chris Christie urges Americans to take COVID-19 seriously after spending 7 days in the ICU and getting access to experimental drugs unavailable to most people

 

[TEG]

 

[NikolaACDC]

Heard on KCBS this morning a report on another twice-infected covid person. Said he was a man, think 60, that had been infected months ago and hospitalized for I think they said 40+ days. Recovered and just now has become infected a second time. There’s probably something in the online news about his case.

While unknown how common a repeat infection will be, should give pause to all those who intentionally don’t take precautions and say well it wasn’t so bad when they got it before. Especially if second time around their body is now compromised from maybe damage done first go round to their heart, lungs, nervous system (ie thinking of those like athletes that had great in depth testing) that wasn’t detected but now is an underlying condition.

Presumably this one
Washington Man the Third Person in the U.S. Confirmed to Have Been Infected Twice With Coronavirus

"Washington Man the Third Person in the U.S. Confirmed to Have Been Infected Twice With Coronavirus
The Seattle-area nursing home resident first tested positive for the novel coronavirus in early March. He spent more than 40 days in the hospital with fever, pneumonia and difficulty breathing before testing negative multiple times and being discharged.
Then, nearly five months later, he got sick again with COVID-19.
Now, genetic testing by a team of Seattle physicians and scientists has revealed that sexagenarian's second bout of the illness caused by the coronavirus in July wasn't a relapse but a new infection with a slightly different variant of the virus.
...
The local patient wasn't as sick the second time around and has since recovered, which suggests some level of protection even if it wasn't strong enough to block infection, Goldman noted. That seems to be the case for most reinfections reported so far, he added.
But for a handful of patients, including a 25-year-old Nevada man whose experience was first made public in August followed by a full report published this week in The Lancet, the second infection was more severe. An 89-year-old woman in the Netherlands, who was also undergoing chemotherapy for lymphoma, is the first person known to have died from a repeat infection."

 

[wdolson]

Trump may try to project that image, and his followers may try to propagate it, but he isn't "more people", and it looks like his time will be over soon, if enough people go voting. Even recent estimates for herd immunity imply significantly more than 1 million deaths, so we are still a long way from that actually happening. And if hospitals and/or health care workers get overrun, it will be even more. So people may come to their senses, especially once T's status changes from "winner" to "loser".



According to worldometers.info, Florida is going to report more than 4,000 new cases today, experts expect FL numbers in general to get worse soon. Florida's absolute death numbers will surpass California's in spite of California having almost twice the population.

EDIT: On Friday, according to John Hopkins University, 10 states reported their highest number of new cases ever. Such developments will count for something once they are not swept under the rug anymore.

It's hard to say exactly how many deaths we would have to endure before we got to herd immunity. We don't know how many people have been infected already, some estimates are that the official number is 1/10 the actual cases. Treatment protocols have improved, so the death rate has dropped, but that cloud may not have a silver lining, it may have a mountain in it. A lot of the people who survive now who would have died in March and April may be left with permanent damage to their body. The media is not talking enough about the long term damage survivors can suffer.

I read the other day that a company in the UK has developed a T-cell immunity test. I can't find if there are any plans to make it available publicly or not, but without a T-cell test there is no way to determine if people had a mild case a while back. One article I saw a few months back was a researcher in San Diego was trying to determine how many people had T-cell immunity and was comparing a sample of the general population to a sample collected for a different study a few years ago. He found T-cell immunity in some of the old samples too, which indicates that there was something mild going around that infected some people that now gives people immunity from COVID-19. (There must have been a laboratory level way to test for T-cells experimentally before the UK company developed their test. I assume the reason it isn't available to the public is that it is slow, expensive, or both.)

The problem is we're flying blind in so many areas. It appears re-infection is rare, but is real.

I think the statistical numbers are lost on many people. Unless it affects them personally it may just be "random noise" and maybe even viewed as "probably just fake news".

Some people can see an abstract representation and "see" the territory it represents. Others hold real world information and abstract information in two separate places in their mind and will never think to connect the two unless someone leads them through the process. I've seen it in action. As one of the former types, the latter seems very bizarre to me, but it's common to a bit more than half the population.

Presumably this one
Washington Man the Third Person in the U.S. Confirmed to Have Been Infected Twice With Coronavirus

"Washington Man the Third Person in the U.S. Confirmed to Have Been Infected Twice With Coronavirus
The Seattle-area nursing home resident first tested positive for the novel coronavirus in early March. He spent more than 40 days in the hospital with fever, pneumonia and difficulty breathing before testing negative multiple times and being discharged.
Then, nearly five months later, he got sick again with COVID-19.
Now, genetic testing by a team of Seattle physicians and scientists has revealed that sexagenarian's second bout of the illness caused by the coronavirus in July wasn't a relapse but a new infection with a slightly different variant of the virus.
...
The local patient wasn't as sick the second time around and has since recovered, which suggests some level of protection even if it wasn't strong enough to block infection, Goldman noted. That seems to be the case for most reinfections reported so far, he added.
But for a handful of patients, including a 25-year-old Nevada man whose experience was first made public in August followed by a full report published this week in The Lancet, the second infection was more severe. An 89-year-old woman in the Netherlands, who was also undergoing chemotherapy for lymphoma, is the first person known to have died from a repeat infection."

COVID-19 is one of the strangest infectious diseases humanity has ever faced. I do think that the majority of people who get it have some kind of lasting immunity. According to the UK based YouTube channel that has been posted her (it's a guy who is a retired nurse) a study done on SARS patients found they had immunity to COVID-19 17 years later, though that sample is very small.

But it looks like for a relatively small number of people, there is no lasting immunity to COVID-19. For those people it may also prove that the vaccine is ineffective for them.

 

[NikolaACDC]

New Blood Test Accurately Predicts Which COVID-19 Patients Will Develop Severe Infection

"The Dublin-Boston score can now accurately predict how severe the infection will be on day seven after measuring the patient’s blood for the first four days.
The blood test works by measuring the levels of two molecules that send messages to the body’s immune system and control inflammation. One of these molecules, interleukin (IL)-6, is pro-inflammatory, and a different one, called IL-10, is anti-inflammatory. The levels of both are altered in severe Covid-19 patients.
Based on the changes in the ratio of these two molecules over time, the researchers developed a point system where each 1-point increase was associated with a 5.6 times increased odds for a more severe outcome.
“The Dublin-Boston score is easily calculated and can be applied to all hospitalised Covid-19 patients,” said RCSI Professor of Medicine Gerry McElvaney, the study’s senior author and a consultant in Beaumont Hospital.
“More informed prognosis could help determine when to escalate or de-escalate care, a key component of the efficient allocation of resources during the current pandemic. The score may also have a role in evaluating whether new therapies designed to decrease inflammation in Covid-19 actually provide benefit.”
------------------------------------
Judging by how the numbers are rising in many countries this might become pretty important.

 

[EVCollies]

Nice podcast NEJM review on Vaccinology and Covid-19.

 

[NikolaACDC]

Face mask for sale in Austria (by a company responsible for funerals and graveyards in Vienna):

Mundschutz "Corona leugnen sichert Arbeitsplätze" - Bestattung Wien

Corona-denial secures Jobs

 

[AudubonB]

I sent that link to my German-speaking friends as “Some grave humor for you”.

 

[heltok]

New Blood Test Accurately Predicts Which COVID-19 Patients Will Develop Severe Infection

"The Dublin-Boston score can now accurately predict how severe the infection will be on day seven after measuring the patient’s blood for the first four days.
The blood test works by measuring the levels of two molecules that send messages to the body’s immune system and control inflammation. One of these molecules, interleukin (IL)-6, is pro-inflammatory, and a different one, called IL-10, is anti-inflammatory. The levels of both are altered in severe Covid-19 patients.
Based on the changes in the ratio of these two molecules over time, the researchers developed a point system where each 1-point increase was associated with a 5.6 times increased odds for a more severe outcome.
“The Dublin-Boston score is easily calculated and can be applied to all hospitalised Covid-19 patients,” said RCSI Professor of Medicine Gerry McElvaney, the study’s senior author and a consultant in Beaumont Hospital.
“More informed prognosis could help determine when to escalate or de-escalate care, a key component of the efficient allocation of resources during the current pandemic. The score may also have a role in evaluating whether new therapies designed to decrease inflammation in Covid-19 actually provide benefit.”
------------------------------------
Judging by how the numbers are rising in many countries this might become pretty important.

Really interesting. So how does one lower ones DB score? Did a quick review on the markers and it seem that the way to lower them is pretty straightforward, eat and live a low inflammation lifestyle. Which is a large problem for a lot of people in a lot of modern countries. Could it be that older people die more often because they more often have high inflammation?

 

[madodel]

I sent that link to my German-speaking friends as “Some grave humor for you”.

I sent it to my daughter in Mannheim. Generally she can't understand much Austrian German but the writing is the same.

 

[renim]

Really interesting. So how does one lower ones DB score? Did a quick review on the markers and it seem that the way to lower them is pretty straightforward, eat and live a low inflammation lifestyle. Which is a large problem for a lot of people in a lot of modern countries. Could it be that older people die more often because they more often have high inflammation?

Eucaloric Ketogenic Diet in COVID-19 Cytokine Storm Syndrome - Full Text View - ClinicalTrials.gov
the italians seem to have a modest trial underway testing keto diet for covid19 patients. the theory seems to be based upon keto's ability to reduce cytokine storm from deleveloping.

Actual Study Start Date : September 1, 2020
Estimated Primary Completion Date : December 31, 2020
Estimated Study Completion Date : May 30, 2021

Induction of ketosis as a potential therapeutic option to limit hyperglycemia and prevent cytokine storm in COVID-19

 

[heltok]

Eucaloric Ketogenic Diet in COVID-19 Cytokine Storm Syndrome - Full Text View - ClinicalTrials.gov
the italians seem to have a modest trial underway testing keto diet for covid19 patients. the theory seems to be based upon keto's ability to reduce cytokine storm from deleveloping.

Actual Study Start Date : September 1, 2020
Estimated Primary Completion Date : December 31, 2020
Estimated Study Completion Date : May 30, 2021

Induction of ketosis as a potential therapeutic option to limit hyperglycemia and prevent cytokine storm in COVID-19

Yeah I have seen those studies. I wonder if a 7day water fast when you start getting symptoms would prevent the bradykinin/cytokine storm.

 

[cwerdna]

I skimmed https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/10/17/sturgis-rally-spread/ the other night. If you get hit by their paywall, these may work:
How the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally may have spread coronavirus across the Upper Midwest
https://archive.is/ApJkL

The story of the COVID flight from hell at Collapsing passengers, CDC missteps and "public health malpractice": The story of the COVID flight from hell - CBS News was on 60 Minutes on Sunday night. Story is 13.5 minutes long and not behind the CBS All Access paywall yet. The handling of the passengers was unbelievably bad. It might not be viewable outside the US.

Three COVID-19 positive people were let onto the flight after coming off the cruise ship where it seemed like “everyone” was coughing. When they got to Atlanta, nobody was tested for COVID-19 and other than three positive passengers, everyone else was free to go w/no quarantine.

The three positive passengers were taken to a hotel. Everybody else went to a cargo building where they were checked by the CDC for fever and filled out a short questionnaire. Nobody was given a COVID test. And some passengers told us they saw people with symptoms get through.

Kelly Edge: There were people, get this, their temperature was too high, so the CDC had them sit in chairs and wait and see if it got lower.
…
Some passengers removed their masks. Others hit the food court. Within hours more than 200 of them, exposed to COVID or already sick with it, boarded commercial flights to 17 states and Canada. Including the Andersons.
…
The cruise line would not share the passenger list with us, but we were able to track down 64 of the Americans. And of those 64, 45 of them told us they tested positive for COVID soon after coming home.

OT:

is under 5 minutes long. Apparently, Wuhan's becoming a tourist destination for Chinese.

 

[HVM]

Added some numbers to Elon's tweet.

 

[JRP3]

the italians seem to have a modest trial underway testing keto diet for covid19 patients. the theory seems to be based upon keto's ability to reduce cytokine storm from deleveloping

I thought the latest theory was Bradykinin storm not cytokine. https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/88560