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Perception is not reality. I've been reading TMC posts since October 2012, listening to arguments and counter arguments. After all this time, it is very hard to disagree with the compelling EV story. I'll go out on a limb here and state that 99% percent of the the population have never heard of Tesla and wouldn't know the Model S if it ran over them. It will take many years, and established ICE manufacturers will fight for their livelihood every step of the way, however once people realize there is a viable alternative to ICE vehicles in EV technology, there will be no stopping EV momentum. "You can't keep a good man down." I would expect competition will come from start up car manufactures with deep pockets, in the likes of Google or Apple, and less likely then from the traditional ICE automakers.
 
I just hope that Tesla will not succumb to the Osborne Effect
- the ß of the Model X is still to be released, while the availability has already been moved forward by a year (I think):
- delivery of the promises Model E. Tesla announced it quite far ahead. I do hope they cannodeliver the promised.
 
I believe it is very clear indeed what is happening out there in the competitive landscape and respectfully most are looking in the wrong place.

At this juncture one component of Elon Musk's publicly stated vision has failed spectacularly: That is the encouragement of Big Auto to transition to making compelling EVs at low price points in order to try to compete with Tesla.

I respectfully disagree with you here: I think it is too early to make this claim just yet. We see Nissan/Renault getting increasingly serious about electric cars and BMW seems to be quite deep in the game, too.

The laws of disruption would appear to be unbreakable because that is not what is happening.

Instead, what is happening is a concerted effort to get rid of Tesla with the aim of returning to business as usual.

Playing Dirty with Hydrogen.

What Tesla is up against is Hydrogen given away for free for leased and subsidised FCVs. Obviously an FCV costs a lot more than an EV and Hydrogen costs a lot more per kWh that the Natural Gas feedstock - at least as expensive as gasoline probably between 10 and 100 times more expensive owing to complexity and extremely poor economies of scale. Nevertheless all of the major car makers with the possible exception of Nissan are rushing FCVs to market under false and misleading banners of abundant element, water vapour exhaust, green, clean, totally emissions free, energy of the future, better for the environment, for our children's future blah blah blah, lie lie lie.

Again, I respectfully disagree with you here: Yes, there is a whole lot of chatter around hydrogen happening these days. But I have not seen a single car that a private individual can purchase today. Also note the chatter is happening a lot in CA and other very special markets and has been going on for ages. I don't see the break-through technology advances that help this technology to succeed: in contrast to electric from fuel, to convenience to cost everything is against hydrogen - I really don't think hydrogen will happen on a global scale. What might happen is that hydrogen is delaying the electrification of cars but I see hydrogen cars simply like all the CA compliance cars going electric: as long as there is a mandate and/or "research" money to be made, people will do something with hydrogen, the second the law changes / the "research" money dries up, hydrogen cars will be gone.

You can observe a similar type of chatter (and actually a few production / purchasable cars) with natural gas driven cars in other places. Also here I don't believe it will happen. The Model S is too viable a car that works in too many markets and is available today. I think it is way to late for hydrogen & Co. If electric cars are not done by "big auto" then they will be done by Samsung, Panasonic and other electronics giants either way, they will come (unless someone finds a way to reverse the declining slope of the cost curve of batteries or prohibits batteries on a global scale etc. which I find rather unlikely).
 
Hydrogen ...

It goes on and on. I will post a large article on the subject shortly.

I look forward to your article Julian. But please edit it carefully so it's easy for the layperson to understand.

If possible, cover all aspects: 1) science, 2) economics, 3) politics / self-interests of big oil and big auto, 4) history of EV1 in California, 5) what to look for in 2014/2015 regarding FCVs by big auto.
 
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I respectfully disagree with you here: I think it is too early to make this claim just yet. We see Nissan/Renault getting increasingly serious about electric cars and BMW seems to be quite deep in the game, too.


Again, I respectfully disagree with you here: Yes, there is a whole lot of chatter around hydrogen happening these days. But I have not seen a single car that a private individual can purchase today. Also note the chatter is happening a lot in CA and other very special markets and has been going on for ages. I don't see the break-through technology advances that help this technology to succeed: in contrast to electric from fuel, to convenience to cost everything is against hydrogen - I really don't think hydrogen will happen on a global scale. What might happen is that hydrogen is delaying the electrification of cars but I see hydrogen cars simply like all the CA compliance cars going electric: as long as there is a mandate and/or "research" money to be made, people will do something with hydrogen, the second the law changes / the "research" money dries up, hydrogen cars will be gone.

You can observe a similar type of chatter (and actually a few production / purchasable cars) with natural gas driven cars in other places. Also here I don't believe it will happen. The Model S is too viable a car that works in too many markets and is available today. I think it is way to late for hydrogen & Co. If electric cars are not done by "big auto" then they will be done by Samsung, Panasonic and other electronics giants either way, they will come (unless someone finds a way to reverse the declining slope of the cost curve of batteries or prohibits batteries on a global scale etc. which I find rather unlikely).


SeanbstianR, thanks for commenting.


The danger is in the nuances, not on the surface.

Neither BMW or Nissan has come up with a vehicle that wipes out its own similarly priced ICE vehicles in terms of value for money. The equivalent Nissan Leaf is $13,000 USD. Neither of them have a hope in the USA in the absence of federal and state credits. This is business as usual: You want a green car, pay extra, maybe the extra is offset with subsidies. BMW i3, nearest equivalent probably the 1 Series at $31,000 and the 1 Series is a very much more capable vehicle considering it is actually highway capable. At $41,000 BMW offers quite a capable 3 Series, a base 5 Series lists for $49,000, about the same as an i3 maxed with options. There is no way that the i3 or the Leaf is a disruptive offering or evidence of even BMW taking the subject matter seriously.

The nearest equivalents to the Model S are arguably more expensive, not less expensive than the Model S, definitely so in terms of total cost of ownership after fuel and maintenance savings. As a result, the Model S has cut sharply into the sales of equivalently priced sedans and Big Auto is justifiably concerned that the Gen III will be a total wipeout unless they do something to stop it.


The points you make concerning hydrogen are superficially sensible and I would agree with much of what you have written - of course hydrogen is neither a sustainable or cost effective solution on a global scale - it's a PR stunt. That much is obvious - especially to those promoting it as an alternative to Renewable energy and EVs: The trouble is that this PR stunt is worth $billions to protect polluting industries from the potential loss of $trillions in market share to renewables and EVs.

Hence offering a commercially subsidised Hyundai Tucson FCV at c $3000 plus $499 per month with a lifetime of doubtless Big Oil sponsored free hydrogen while pushing California to site Hydrogen filling stations in the prime locations for Tesla customers. The rest of the auto industry is rushing to join the same party for the same reasons. That is one part of the story, the other is Big Oil and Big Auto going nuts on dishonest marketing and lobbying, setting up shill organisations e.g. Home | California Fuel Cell Partnership to promote IMO criminally misleading spin on disparate sets of efficiency data (that need to be compounded together to make sense) in an attempt to dupe consumers and politicians that FCVs are green. All this to entice consumers, media and government funding away from renewables and fledgling EV businesses.
 
If I had the only bar on a street I'd welcome, not resist, another one or three opening up on the same street. In fact, I'd worry if over time no one else opened another one up.
If you look around you might notice that there are many shops already around you, they just do not sell stuff as good as yours. Their customers might prefer your stuff (count me in :biggrin:). It might cost other shop owners a lot of money to start selling that great stuff that you sell. Also it is cost prohibitive to open a shop like yours, very few people can afford to do that.
 
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I look forward to your article Julian. But please edit it carefully so it's easy for the layperson to understand.

If possible, cover all aspects: 1) science, 2) economics, 3) politics / self-interests of big oil and big auto, 4) history of EV1 in California, 5) what to look for in 2014/2015 regarding FCVs by big auto.


I contribute what I hope is at least a significant start.

Targeting fracking and steam reforming at green-leaning consumers to me is quite wrong and I think something drastic needs to be done about it to curb the deception risk in order to prevent the deliberate derailing of hope by well funded vested interests:

Screen Shot 2014-04-25 at 18.28.41.jpg


There may be a way that anti trust provisions or trading standards can stop hydrogen being given away for free in connection with a blatantly false and misleading promotion like this. The first order of business is to get clear that this is absolutely the darkest anti-sustainable future for all that could possibly befall renewables and sustainable transportation.

I refer to this as a Cuckoo In The Nest promotion. There are two major sources of hydrogen on planet earth. Methane (Natural Gas) and Water.

One of them contains energy potential in air sufficient that burning 25% of it provides the energy to heat steam to crack the combination into hydrogen and CO2. The other one has no energy potential in air, it is already the combustion product of hydrogen and oxgen. To crack that into hydrogen and oxygen requires an input of 100% of the energy potential in the resulting hydrogen, plus another 25% (at least) for thermodynamic efficiency losses.

Considering we start out with the first choice (the polluting process that costs 25%) who believes that we are inevitably heading towards the second that costs 125%? Definitely not anyone close enough to the technology to understand it - i.e. those promoting it as a bright emissions free future for all.

After all, who needs solar and EVs when 'hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe'.

One other thing. Hydrogen from renewables:

So let's say we take that 125 kWh of renewable electricity.

1. Send it across the grid (7% grid loss) and charge up our Model S with the remaining 116kWh. At 330 Wh / mile our Model S ought to go about 352 miles.

2. Make 100 kWh worth of hydrogen by electrolysis. Compress it, now we have 90kWh worth remaining, put it in a fuel cell to charge a system just like a Model S now we have 45kWh remaining, at At 330 Wh / mile our FCV range extended Model S will take us 137 miles or 38% of the distance.

So now we require 263% of the cost of renewable energy to move the same mass the same distance. That is REAL HANDY if you happen to be worried that Solar is approaching cost parity with fossil fuels.
 
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I just can not imagine hydrogen propelled cars being taken seriously.

Good - tell it to this lot and their PR and lobbying teams (and consider it some article notes). I am very confident indeed that this is the vested interests response to Tesla, and it is not exactly the flurry of compelling EVs that Mr Musk has been anticipating (in public statements at least). Net result - a binary battle royale for the future of humanity and to the victor the spoils on a scale perhaps never before anticipated should Tesla prevail as indeed it MUST in order to avert a fracking environmental apocalypse.

Hyundai FCV (first to be openly promoted with unlimited free hydrogen)

2015 Hyundai Tucson Fuel Cell | Hydrogen-Powered Vehicle | Hyundai

Honda FCV

Honda Worldwide | Products Technology | Fuel Cell

Toyota FCV

Fuel Cell Vehicle | TOYOTA GLOBAL SITE

Daimler / Mercedes FCV

Fuel Cell Drive Technology (F-CELL) | Daimler > Technology & Innovation > Drive Technologies > Electric Drives > Fuel Cell Drives

BMW FCV

Toyota, BMW firm up green agreement with fuel-cell vehicle plan - NY Daily News

GM (Equinox FCV)

Fuel Cell Equinox Tops 100,000 Miles in Real-World Driving

Ford FCV (Literally promoted under climate change and the environment)

Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs) - Migration to Alternative Fuels and Powertrains - Sustainability 2011/12 - Ford Motor Company

VW FCV

Volkswagen Group Fuel Cell

Audi FCV

Audi A7 Hydrogen Fuel Cell Prototype, Testing in Progress - The Green Optimistic

Kia FCV

Development of Hyundai-Kia’s fuel cell stack - Springer

Chrysler FCV

Chrysler Banks on Hydrogen Fuel Cell With ecoVoyager Concept: Detroit Auto Show Preview - Popular Mechanics

Nissan FCV

NISSAN | Zero-Emission Mobility Enhancement | Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles

Renault FCV

FCV | Blog of RENAULT NISSAN Alliance

Peugeot / Citroen FCV

PSA Peugeot Citroлn and Intelligent Energy unveil H2Origin electric/fuel-cell vehicle | Car News


... and for good measure here here is the "green" hydrogen to go with it:

Saudi Aramco Hydrogen
http://bit.ly/1ivx1vy

Air Liquide Hydrogen Production Process
http://bit.ly/1lZdg31

Russia's Gazprom and Air Liquide Hydrogen:
http://bit.ly/1ivx1vI

National Iranian Oil Company Hydrogen:
http://bit.ly/1ivwYzW

Pemex Hydrogen:
http://bit.ly/1ivx1M8

Kuwait Petroleum Corp Hydrogen:
http://bit.ly/1ivx1Mc

Abu Dhabi Oil Refining Company Hydrogen:
http://bit.ly/1ivwYQk

Sonatrach (Algeria) Hydrogen:
http://bit.ly/1ivwYQo

Total Hydrogen:
http://bit.ly/1ivx1Me

Petrobas Hydrogen:
http://bit.ly/1ivwYQu

Rosneft (Russia) Hydrogen:
http://bit.ly/1ivwYQw

Quatar Petroleum Hydrogen:
http://bit.ly/1ivx22w

Shell Hydrogen:
http://bit.ly/1ivx22y

Exxon Hydrogen:
http://bit.ly/1cWDkTT

Chevron Hydrogen:
http://bit.ly/1ivx22A

BP Hydrogen:
http://bit.ly/1ivx22E
 
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Perhaps big oil and car makers do try to push hydrogen and other compromise technologies very hard. It is in their survival interest to do so.

I just think that the average driver is smart enough to make the correct choice. Tesla makes the choice very obvious and easy. Tesla cars are very scarce at the moment and that scarcity is the determining factor of how long others can still sell their ice or hybrids or similar cars.
 
I contribute what I hope is at least a significant start.

[...]

There are two major sources of hydrogen on planet earth. Methane (Natural Gas) and Water.

One of them contains energy potential in air sufficient that burning 25% of it provides the energy to heat steam to crack the combination into hydrogen and CO2. The other one has no energy potential in air, it is already the combustion product of hydrogen and oxgen. To crack that into hydrogen and oxygen requires an input of 100% of the energy potential in the resulting hydrogen, plus another 25% (at least) for thermodynamic efficiency losses.

Considering we start out with the first choice (the polluting process that costs 25%) who believes that we are inevitably heading towards the second that costs 125%? Definitely not anyone close enough to the technology to understand it - i.e. those promoting it as a bright emissions free future for all.

After all, who needs solar and EVs when 'hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe'.

One other thing. Hydrogen from renewables:

So let's say we take that 125 kWh of renewable electricity.

1. Send it across the grid (7% grid loss) and charge up our Model S with the remaining 116kWh. At 330 Wh / mile our Model S ought to go about 352 miles.

2. Make 100 kWh worth of hydrogen by electrolysis. Compress it, now we have 90kWh worth remaining, put it in a fuel cell to charge a system just like a Model S now we have 45kWh remaining, at At 330 Wh / mile our FCV range extended Model S will take us 137 miles or 38% of the distance.

So now we require 263% of the cost of renewable energy to move the same mass the same distance. That is REAL HANDY if you happen to be worried that Solar is approaching cost parity with fossil fuels.

@Julian. I hope you don't mind the following comment and suggestion ... for the article you are working on.

You write with a lot of prior knowledge and background, but the layperson is not going to be able to follow the above. I am paying attention to this topic and I am having a hard time understanding fully what you just presented. Could you please present it in a way that a good college freshman (someone who left high school six months ago) could understand?
 
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Perhaps big oil and car makers do try to push hydrogen and other compromise technologies very hard. It is in their survival interest to do so.

I just think that the average driver is smart enough to make the correct choice. Tesla makes the choice very obvious and easy. Tesla cars are very scarce at the moment and that scarcity is the determining factor of how long others can still sell their ice or hybrids or similar cars.


On TMC there is a case of preaching to the choir - but a well informed choir is no bad thing.

The best case scenario is that money and time expended by oil and auto on this BS will ultimately hasten the migration of investment from pollution to renewables and sustainable transportation. There is another issue with that - ideally there needs to be a capital gains deferral to the subsequent purchase of renewable stocks (and those need to be defined as NOT hydrogen which leads directly back to fracking).

Unfortunately the worst case is very much worse than that: Gross misdirection of investors as to what constitutes renewable energy potentially impacting Tesla's market cap. Gross misdirection of politicians precipitating insane expenditure on hydrogen infrastructure with direct dilution or depletion of funding for actual renewable and sustainable transportation. Usurping of subsidies for environmental vehicles, hastening of taxation on EVs, funding previously earmarked for solar/wind energy and grid storage cycled directly back into the pockets of big oil and big auto, muddying of media coverage as to what constitutes environmentally friendly technology (there are already school programs teaching this stuff as green), direct stalling and displacement of EV programs undertaken by big auto (good and bad in that), direct promotion of FCVs vs EVs as environmentally equivalent and superior owing to longer range and faster refuelling, serious potential for misleading and bribing 'average' green-conscious consumers propelled by offers of subsidised vehicles and free hydrogen for life and false promises of contributing to a green future for all.

On balance I think maybe this is not very cool and needs to be taken really rather seriously.
 
@Julian. I hope you don't mind the following comment and suggestion ... for the article you are working on.

You write with a lot of prior knowledge and background, but the layperson is not going to be able to follow the above. I am paying attention to this topic and I am having a hard time understanding fully what you just presented. Could you please present it in a way that a good college freshman could understand?


In its simplest form, it is physically impossible for any of the clean methods of hydrogen production to compete with the current practice that combines two of the most polluting processes known to man: Fracking of shales for Natural Gas (exempt from both clean drinking water regulation and clear air regulation in the USA) and Steam Reforming a process that consumes 25% of the input energy in the form of Natural Gas and outputs CO2 pollution and Hydrogen containing 75% of the input energy prior to compressing the gas - which also required energy. Obtaining hydrogen from water cannot compete because water does not contribute any of the energy required for its own destruction into oxygen and hydrogen.

It is the difference between wasting some of the energy in a material that comes out of the ground as a fuel and providing all of the energy and then some for dismantling water.

Neverthless FCVs are routinely promoted alongside the notion that one day steam reforming of Natural Gas will be replaced with clean solutions like splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen with renewable electricity. This is a complete falsehood because steam reforming of natural gas will always be a dramatically cheaper source of hydrogen in high volumes against which splitting of water into hydrogen and oxygen cannot compete so long as ample supplies of natural gas remain (next 50 years at least) which is likely longer than we have a living planet at the current rate of greenhouse gas accumulation, especially if this form of pollution by stealth derails progress made with solar and EVs.

Unlike the rapidly lowering costs of solar energy and the tremendous advantages of storing and using that energy directly in an EV, there is no roadmap to a source of hydrogen that can compete with fossil fuel feedstocks. If indeed solar was used to create hydrogen to power FCVs instead of powering EVs directly, that would require between almost three to four times the investment in kWh of solar to achieve the same outcome thereby setting back the ability of unsubsidised solar to compete by at least a decade instead of almost immediately.
 
Unfortunately the worst case is very much worse than that: Gross misdirection of investors as to what constitutes renewable energy potentially impacting Tesla's market cap. Gross misdirection of politicians precipitating insane expenditure on hydrogen infrastructure with direct dilution or depletion of funding for actual renewable and sustainable transportation. Usurping of subsidies for environmental vehicles, hastening of taxation on EVs, funding previously earmarked for solar/wind energy and grid storage cycled directly back into the pockets of big oil and big auto, muddying of media coverage as to what constitutes environmentally friendly technology (there are already school programs teaching this stuff as green), direct stalling and displacement of EV programs undertaken by big auto (good and bad in that), direct promotion of FCVs vs EVs as environmentally equivalent and superior owing to longer range and faster refuelling, serious potential for misleading and bribing 'average' green-conscious consumers propelled by offers of subsidised vehicles and free hydrogen for life and false promises of contributing to a green future for all.

On balance I think maybe this is not very cool and needs to be taken really rather seriously.

Julian thank you for all the links and the other information in your posts. It is incredible to what lengths these entities will go in order to preserve their positions.

I agree that it is very uncool what you described above. People sometimes become uncool when they fight for survival.

I could be wrong, but I think that all the muddying of the facts regarding renewable energy, misdirection of politicians and tax money, and all other factors that you mention above, will fall like a house of cards once ev vehicles are available to all drivers, not just to small segments in selected geographies.

I am trying to make a point that the best way to fight back might be to make evs available, and any driver is smart enough to choose, not just TMC community. I am confident that drivers will choose a better car, regardless of misinformation, politics, earth preservation, sustainability or anything else mentioned above. Subsidies might sway many people though.

The most pressing issue that I see is to make evs widely available. It seems to me that the ice car makers will not help their own demise by making good evs. Ironically that might lead to their demise. They are in a very difficult double bind situation.

The only survival maneuver that I see for the ice car makers is to enter the ev space with good ev cars and to phase out ice cars over a number of years. That is a very costly move. So far they seem to be focusing their fight on the different fronts. They might be buying time with these maneuvers and such moves might be effective in prolonging their survival.

If one assumes that the ice cars are safe from the ev competition in most market segments for the next say 10-20 years, as evs are scarce, I just wonder what sort of a CEO is likely to change the course of a business because of a distant threat if his/her alternative is to cruise profitably during his/her tenure.

Tesla CEO put Tesla business on its current course by taking some incredible personal sacrifices and risks. That is something that gives me hope and inspiration, not to mention all the gratitude for investment gains.:cool:
 
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I think the "hydrogen threat" has potential to delay the transition to EVS (which is regrettable) but not severely hamper it. Demand for sustainable transportation grows all around the world, not only in California. Even Big oil cannot bring enough cash to the table to provide free hydrogen to all Chinese, Indian, or Brazilian car owners. And these countries have no natural gas supply on their own. A Hydrogen based transportation system is way too expensive and way too inefficient to appeal to each and every country. Which is our luck here.

- - - Updated - - -

If it existed I'm sure it would be the highest priced 3 series model. That said I don't think BMW will make it anyway. They have their i lineup it seems. I guess the i5 could be a sedan of some kind.

I had a chance to listen to a BMW sales rep ("i Agent") at an EV event the other day. There were 2 Teslas and 3 BMW i3 attending to show to the public. When asked on BMW's roadmap, the iAgent praised hydrogen as the future, and talked about bringing hybrid drivetrains to the complete ICE lineup in the near future. Left the impression of EVs as a stop-gap for me.
We will see if BMW goes all in on EVs if they make a decent i5 sedan. Until that happens, any talk of BMW as a threat to Tesla is nonsense.
 
It would be awesome if Elon would publicly discuss the absurdity of Hydrogen. It might be worth the time and money to put a team together and sock it to all the corporations and politicians involved in the hypocrisy. Land the first punch. Unfortunately, in America having the facts on your side often isn't enough.
 
Auszie, Volker

I am not being a naysayer, far from it. I believe there is tremendous advantage in anticipating and exposing this rubbish.

I expect what Tesla will do is to launch the Gen III with the metal air range extender and just blow FCVs out of the water no matter which way you look at it.

That does not change the fact that the PR and lobbying budget aimed at Tesla to try to drive them off the block is much greater than Tesla's total budget, probably significantly more than Tesla's market cap when one includes the development cost of bogus green vehicles.

This is where the war is at and it is not the one usually postulated. Big Auto will not be coming at Tesla with brilliant low cost EVs, it will aim a multi $billion low blow at the media and political landscape to try to divert interest in EVs, solar and grid storage into a faux green product of Natural Gas. They are also rushing this stuff to market in 2015 in a bid to head off Tesla's Gen III vehicle.

Tesla will be able to counter that to an extent with an unveil and the opening of Gen III reservations - but the war in the media whether Hydrogen is Green or EVs are dirty will be fought HARD.
 
That does not change the fact that the PR and lobbying budget aimed at Tesla to try to drive them off the block is much greater than Tesla's total budget, probably significantly more than Tesla's market cap when one includes the development cost of bogus green vehicles.

This is where the war is at and it is not the one usually postulated. Big Auto will not be coming at Tesla with brilliant low cost EVs, it will aim a multi $billion low blow at the media and political landscape to try to divert interest in EVs, solar and grid storage into a faux green product of Natural Gas. They are also rushing this stuff to market in 2015 in a bid to head off Tesla's Gen III vehicle.

Tesla will be able to counter that to an extent with an unveil and the opening of Gen III reservations - but the war in the media whether Hydrogen is Green or EVs are dirty will be fought HARD.

Thanks for your posts Julian - much appreciated. I think I understand a bit better what your are trying to say - please correct me if I'm wrong but essentially it boils down to these two aspects:


  • The core threat here is about diversion of attention/funds/resources (away from electric cars towards hydrogen)
  • Tesla is still too small a player to match dollar for dollar the resources pumped into hydrogen

I offer the following thoughts:
  • I think the threat is real and hydrogen has the potential to do a lot of damage
  • I do however also think (and believe you may agree on that one) the "electric car genie is out of the bottle" - I don't think the long term development away from ICE cars to electric cars will be stopped - it may be delayed by plug-in hybrids, hydrogen, natural gas driven and other cars but not more than delayed.
  • I also believe that while Tesla is too small to counter the hydrogen dollars, pretty much anything Elon says is getting out there with amazing speed.

So going back to the initial premise of this discussion: I see no real competition to Tesla right now. (and I concede that I think my assessment holds true for a Northern European location predominantly - the situation may be entirely different in the US)
 
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I don't see hydrogen as a viable competitor to EV's with a >200 mile range.

Reason is the cost of the supporting infrastructure. I think widespread use of hydrogen is going to require new fueling stations or conversion of existing stations plus a significant increase in the number of tanker-trucks able to transport hydrogen. None of this is cheap and I doubt any auto company has the combination of financial resources and will to build out enough infrastructure on its own.

With >200 mile EV's, Tesla is proof that one company can build out enough high speed charging infrastructure to support long-distance driving. Lots of people and companies can and will shoulder the cost of adding home and destination charging. All this is possible because EV recharging can leverage the very expensive power distribution infrastructure we've already built.

Hydrogen is going to work only if governments puts massive amounts of money into the supporting infrastructure for decades. I don't see that happening. EVs will prove out their economic practicality long before then if someone (cough, Tesla, cough) can field a reasonably mass-market EV with a >200 mile range. Gen III will be the tipping point.