Competing technologies to BEV

[Krugerrand]

Those are some tired looking robots.

 

[Auzie]

Those are some tired looking robots.

These robots resemble humans, after a lifetime of hard work the bright shiny sparkly look is replaced with tired worn greasy bruised appearance.:smile:

Tesla robots will look like that one day, less shiny, more dents and bruises on machines, worn out floor hasn't seen paint for awhile, all evidence of a humming manufacturing plant, churning out cars at a rate of 2700 cars/day.

Fremont space seems to be better designed, with much more light and better color choices. Many older manufacturing plants followed standard color schemes for machinery and guarding, boring green and yellow.

Addition of new assembly lines may make the Fremont plant appear more cramped, with less light and space.

 

[renim]

interesting calculations

a real simple calculation
85kWh / 680wh/l is 125 litre
so a Tesla has 125litres of 18650 cells (approx.)

sanity check calc.
7102 cells x 0.01654 (volume of 18650cyclinder) = 117.5 litre

Hypothetical Tesla using 700bar instead of 18650 li ion
125 Litre * 14/16 = 110 litres (ie use 2 trays for secondary storage Li ion - the 'power' battery)
110 litres tank about 80 litres H2 volume, 30litres shell (very advanced 700bar tank - not cheap)

80 litres H2 x 42 kg/m[SUP]3[/SUP] is 3.4kg H2 (an H2 Tesla would hold 3.4kg H2)
3.4 (tesla H2) / 5.6 (Tucson H2) * 265miles (Tucson range) = 158 miles EPA range

So a 100kW Tesla with 158 miles EPA range, and nearly no where to refuel. It probably also costs $150k to produce. success is not a possible outcome.

a Tesla has a frunk and a boot
the Hyundai H2 vehicle has a generous parcel shelf.
there is a reason why, today's Li ion has considerably better volumetric energy density, than tomorrow's H2 700 bar storage.

 

[Ampster]

I agree with your conclusion, but your analysis is not complete. In the case of the Tesla pack you have to consider the cooling infrastrucure which adds volume. On th other hand, the Fool Cell vehicle needs the infrastructure of a fuel cell, batteries for buffer and of couse, the hydrogen storage volume. The only thing that might be similar in volumestric density would be the motor and inverter.

 

[renim]

I agree with your conclusion, but your analysis is not complete. In the case of the Tesla pack you have to consider the cooling infrastructure which adds volume. On the other hand, the Fool Cell vehicle needs the infrastructure of a fuel cell, batteries for buffer and of course, the hydrogen storage volume. The only thing that might be similar in volumetric density would be the motor and inverter.

I've avoided the fuel cell stack, etc just focusing on the energy storage.
Tesla 18650 cells are hexagonally packed, limit of hexagonal packing is 90%
an array of H2 tanks would be laid horizontally and be 1 layer high, it would be grid packing so the limit of efficiency would about 78%
consider the difference to be cooling infrastructure.

(there is also valves at the end of an H2 cylinder, which would be both expensive, and take space in a hypothetical H2 Tesla. I've ignored those valves.)

 

[Matias]

From these pictures you can see, that packaging is far from 90% efficiency.

Battery interior and Repair of Model S

 

[renim]

From these pictures you can see, that packaging is far from 90% efficiency.

Battery interior and Repair of Model S

now visualise layering optimal 65mm dia 700bar H2 tanks in those trays, even if the width of the tray is optimised for H2 tanks, there still will be a considerable packing penalty, for the cylinder spacing, end caps spacing, valves/regulators

I'm not saying that Tesla is at 90% efficiency, I'm saying that laying H2 tanks along the base of a Tesla will not be able to achieve higher space efficiency than Li ion even though Tesla Li ion 18650 require a coolant system. Real life H2 tanks will have a similar penalty.

 

[renim]

another calc for hypothetical H2 Tesla

A Tesla 'tray' seems about 300mm by 600mm (ie 32 x 18mm is 576mm long)
4 x 65mm is 260mm, so a tray could fit 4 of 65mm dia H2 tanks
4 tanks/tray x 14 trays = 56 H2 tanks (ie 2 trays left for 'power' li ion battery)
65mm = 6.5 cm
total area per 6.5cm tank = 33.18cm2
72% of 33.18 is 23.89cm2 (ie useful inside area is 72%, shell is 28%)

lose only 50mm for valves etc, tanks are 600-50 = 550mm long
55cm long tanks * 56tanks = 3080 cm of tanks
3080 x 23.89 =73,581 cm3 of h2 tank or 73.5 litres

A H2 Tucson Fuel tank is 38 Gal ie 144 litre
73.5/144 = 51%
so a straight conversion of a Tesla to H2 would have about 51% (ie half) the range of the Li ion version.

a more practical conversion would be somewhat better, equivalent to 300/65 =4.6 tanks per tray, and have the tanks across 2 trays lengths.
but even so, the extra 15%-20% of 51% would still be a capacity of 60% of the Li ion battery vehicle.....

the maths keep coming back, 700bar H2 tanks are significantly less volumetric energy dense than today's commodity Li ion battery
that is why, Tesla has frunk and a boot, H2 Tucson only has a large parcel shelf.

 

[renim]

35 MPA refuelling times
View attachment 55088

70 MPA refuelling times
View attachment 55089

There is a direct relation between pre-cooling and fueling speed.
,,,,Liquidfied H2 is already pre-chilled, but you can just sense the costs of handling this stuff is serious.

Consider optimal technical requirements for hydrogen fueling dispensers.–
Eliminate 700 bar requirement: Not necessary. Can double the cost of infrastructure over 350 bar:
Compressors – 2x-3x the cost,
Dispensers – 2x-3x the cost,
Storage – 2x the cost,
plumbing – 2x the cost.
Installation – 30-50% higher cost.
Permitting more difficult. Scares permitting agencies. 700

Bar an impediment to Infrastructure deployment. Designed to fail.

–

Range increase can be achieved by adding another tank. Design into vehicle. Stop putting the cost of vehicle design on the infrastructure. Much less expensive on vehicle cost than in infrastructure cost ... (page 6 )http://www.energy.ca.gov/contracts/...aples_A_perspective_from_a_small_business.pdf

page 18
Eliminate 700 bar requirement: Not necessary. Can double the cost of

infrastructure over 350 bar: If only 350 Bar, I could easily provide
hardware for under $1 mill (100% renewable on-site electrolysis).
Design into vehicle.

so a 100kg/day (20 cars) station is under $1million 2012 dollars, but is doubled in cost for fast refuelling.
a 350 bar station speed varies significantly but is speed approximate to Tesla supercharging (except H2 is 3x less efficient than of BEV for electric energy source)

 

[Auzie]

Ultra Aerodynamic Car with 1.5 drag coefficient

Interesting article on ultra aero dynamic car in wired.

The car is a bit aged, actually not alive any more.:crying:

I am guessing that it did not survive as it had a Russian aircraft engine strapped to it. No offence to Russian engines meant.

 

[RobStark]

VW(Japan Boss) Says Fuel-Cell Cars Doomed to Struggle Beyond Japan


“It may fly within Japan, but not globally,” said Shoji, 51. Fuel cells could become another example of the “Galapagos syndrome” that plagues Japanese companies for making products that are only popular at home, he said.

“It’s an (Japanese Prime Minister) Abe and Toyota deal,” Shoji said. “It’s an industry giant and the most powerful LDP party, and they are working very close. It’s sort of difficult to complain about it, even for me.”


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-07/vw-says-fuel-cell-cars-doomed-to-struggle-beyond-japan.html

 

[SebastianR]

VW(Japan Boss) Says Fuel-Cell Cars Doomed to Struggle Beyond Japan


“It may fly within Japan, but not globally,” said Shoji, 51. Fuel cells could become another example of the “Galapagos syndrome” that plagues Japanese companies for making products that are only popular at home, he said.

“It’s an (Japanese Prime Minister) Abe and Toyota deal,” Shoji said. “It’s an industry giant and the most powerful LDP party, and they are working very close. It’s sort of difficult to complain about it, even for me.”


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-07/vw-says-fuel-cell-cars-doomed-to-struggle-beyond-japan.html

While I agree with the sentiment, I'm a bit disappointed that there is no further discussion why FCV will fail unless they are massively subsidized vis-a-vis electric cars. Then again it is great to hear this from VW...

 

[Auzie]

A short story on my Tesla evangelism efforts with BMW enthusiasts

My car got oil leak so I took it to service. Here is a pic of the competition service center.

The center looks bright and busy, with great non slip floor and good lighting. The floor has some special coating that increases tyres grip on it.

I asked my Service Advisor to get the car out of the reception area as soon as possible, to prevent leak staining the beautiful floor. Few drips were unavoidable, there seemed to be some karma at play here. :wink: Car is under warranty.

My booking was urgent so no loaner was available, but I got courtesy share ride to city, with other drivers that were headed that way. I found myself with four strangers in the car so I thought I will just quietly sit out my short ride. :smile:

The only thing we had in common is that we all drive BMW. Conversation was naturally about BMW latest cars. One driver bragged about low fuel consumption of the latest BMW diesel model. Others made comments on increasingly improving BMW technology regarding fuel consumption and cited consumption numbers, with excitement about low(er) numbers.

Such conversation did not sit well with me as my car consumes at least 20% or 2 l/100km more than the spec. I had discussed the issue of higher than stated fuel consumption with the dealer soon after getting the car, with the expectation to get the issue fixed. The dealer’s response was that there was nothing wrong with my car, all the other cars as mine had the same consumption, so the spec must be wrong. (???)

After hearing all this praise of BMW advances in fuel consumption and my experience of higher actual consumption than the stated car spec, I decided I had to say something on the subject.
It was unwise to bad mouth BMW in a car full of obvious BMW enthusiasts, so I said: "BMW may be making advances in fuel technology, but zero fuel consumption is much better. Tesla is propelled by an AC motor sitting on a battery, no need for fuel. Tesla is coming to Sydney soon".

They all seemed quite interested and started shooting questions, in the tune of: “What is Tesla?”

Only one driver seemed to be vaguely aware of Tesla, he mentioned Tesla deliveries in Japan. Others thought that Tesla was a hybrid similar to Prius, and started praising Prius and its performance. They all seemed genuinely intrigued by Tesla and started shooting questions at me about charging, range, charging stations, time of Australian debut, etc.

I was happy to talk about my favorite subject, so I mentioned few facts about battery, range, charging, AC motor, and few other interesting tid bits.

One driver commented: “You seem to know a lot about that car. Females do not know much about cars, I am so proud of you”.

As such masterful putdown of half the human race was supposed to be a compliment to me, I thought to myself: Whoa, is this guy aware of his offensiveness? Where can such comment come from, from being misogynist, dim witted, or both? I settled on obviously dim witted and unconsciously mean.

I answered few more questions and talked some more about wireless updates of Tesla software and its control tablet, until we reached the destination.

My takeaway from this experience:

Even car enthusiasts have trouble grasping that fully electric car is a possibility. Tesla is still largely unknown even in that population subset

Dim wittedness is a bit of an obstacle to a meaningful conversation, so once it is detected, it might be better not to engage:biggrin:

My driveway would look much better with an electric car

 

[pGo]

Peter Thiel says competition is for losers. He mentions Spacex (he's an investor) and Tesla as an example of creating monopoly. He is a former mafia of Paypal.

Peter Thiel: Competition Is for Losers - WSJ

 

[Cosmacelf]

That Peter Theil article is spot on. And in particular, while you might say the Model S competes against all other cars, if you want a long range electric car (and many people do), Tesla has no competition. This is reflected in Tesla's operating margins which are substantially higher than other car manufacturers.

 

[Krugerrand]

One driver commented: “You seem to know a lot about that car. Females do not know much about cars, I am so proud of you”.

As such masterful putdown of half the human race was supposed to be a compliment to me, I thought to myself: Whoa, is this guy aware of his offensiveness? Where can such comment come from, from being misogynist, dim witted, or both? I settled on obviously dim witted and unconsciously mean.

I haven't gotten upset about a comment like that since I was 8. Seriously. I was doing oil changes by that age because it was easier for me to crawl under the vehicle to take out the oil pan plug than it was for my father (the mechanic). What are kids for, right? First engine change by 16...blah, blah, blah...

There are several ways to approach the situation, but usually it isn't worth the attention or effort. You might simply have answered: "It takes such a brave man to embrace his ignorance and display it for the rest of us."

 

[Auzie]

Seriously. I was doing oil changes by that age because it was easier for me to crawl under the vehicle to take out the oil pan plug than it was for my father (the mechanic). What are kids for, right? First engine change by 16...blah, blah, blah...

There are several ways to approach the situation, but usually it isn't worth the attention or effort. You might simply have answered: "It takes such a brave man to embrace his ignorance and display it for the rest of us."

I have to admit that regarding changing oil I am on the opposite side of you, that was never my cup of tea eek:dirty) and I used to get my 12 yo (at the time) do it under my instructions. He seemed so keen on it.

I have been driving leased cars for the last decade or so. Oil change has been out of my to do tasks, I am so grateful for that.:smile:

Regarding your proposed response, I have to say it is very witty. I needed extra caffeine shot to get on top of it. :biggrin:

There are some downsides to matching dim witted comment with witty response. In some situations it might come across as having a go at the disabled person.

Apart from that, the guys in the car seemed genuinely interested in Tesla

and I was trying to make the most of such rare occurrence and use the brief encounter for the best effect. Usually when I bring Tesla subject (very carefully and only if appropriate) all I get is blank stares, :frown: not much interest, usual signs of low understanding of the subject. So my response was: “I just like good cars and Tesla is the best. Google it.“

 

[RobStark]

Usually when I bring Tesla subject (very carefully and only if appropriate) all I get is blank stares, :frown: not much interest, usual signs of low understanding of the subject. So my response was: “I just like good cars and Tesla is the best. Google it.“

Aye, you don't won't people looking at you like a religious evangelist at your door on a Sunday morning before breakfast.

 

[flashflood]

Aye, you don't won't people looking at you like a religious evangelist at your door on a Sunday morning before breakfast.

Not to be confused with those atheist evangelists who are constantly knocking down my door.

 

[Auzie]

Aye, you don't won't people looking at you like a religious evangelist at your door on a Sunday morning before breakfast.

What can I say, I do not enjoy evangelists and religious discussions and here I am turning into one (Tesla evangelist), must be some life lesson for me here, something like:

Car can speak for itself, no need to preach.

But car is nowhere to be seen:crying: