China Market situation and outlook

[maoing]

I think I count the super charger station number manually from the http://www.tesla.cn/supercharger, it's 48 in mainland China, plus 3 in Hongkong, so total is 51.
A couple of days ago, the Cangzhou (between Beijing and Jinan) super charger station was up with 4 stalls.

河北沧州
河北省沧州市迎宾大道18号，沧州金狮国际酒店

So there is no stretch traveling with Model S from Beijing to Shanghai, even further to Hangzhou or Zhoushan. This the first corridor which enables all electrical fast long distance travel in China.

Thank you for your posts maoing. Where do you get the most up-do-date info?
All I can see is second-hand info from users on autohome.


I wouldn't call the Beijing-Shanghai "up and online" just yet.
A owner did a range charge drive in a 85 from Jinian to Beijing and arrived with 16 km left.
That's not a lot of buffer for bad conditions and impossible to do in the 60.
They need one more near Jining and Bengbu to bring it in line with US/Norway route distances.

 

[ScepticMatt]

I think I count the super charger station number manually

Thanks.

So there is no stretch traveling with Model S from Beijing to Shanghai,

While it's possible in a S85, I think it's still a bit of a stretch right now.

In ideal conditions, a P85 346 km drive between Nanjing and Xuzhou superchargers needs 57.3 kWh.
Superchargers networks elsewhere are spaced much closer to enable S60 long distance driving,
to have a bad weather buffer and to avoid much longer range charge times.


Beijing-Shanghai (circles=100 km)

US coast to coast route. (circles=100 km)

SC in hilly terrain and in Europe are spaced closer together still

 

[chickensevil]

For all intentions as soon as someone is able to make the trip with just superchargers the route is considered online. That was at least how people were following it in North America. The Coast to Coast trips that were well publicized happened under less than ideal situations both in terms of the spacing of chargers and weather conditions. But there was certainly a couple long stretches there where they originally had to do an almost full charge to make it from one to the next.

Same with the original route from DC to Boston, there was originally only like 2 chargers that got you the whole length and there was no way anyone in a 60 could dream of making the trip.

Norway, if you followed some of the early trips Bjorn took you would see he made some daring crosses as well in his 85 due to weather and distances between chargers.

So if you are looking for "possible" it would seem that Beijing to Shanghai is online. If you want practical, then yes, you will have to wait a bit longer. I know it is hard to remember what the US or Norway used to look like in the early days of supercharging, but China seems to be following a similar (if faster) path.

 

[maoing]

+1.

From Beijing to Shanghai, all the leaps are under 350KM (218 miles) or so, so it's considerably doable with 85kwh vehicle. But we do need more density to make people feel more comfortable of doing all electric travel. Here I list all the distance (from Baidu map) for each leap between Beijing and Shanghai.
Beijing --> Cangzhou : 215km
Cangzhou --> Jinan: 224km
Jinan --> Xuzhou: 316km
Xuzhou --> Nanjing: 344km
Nanjing --> Shanghai: 300km

Note between Nanjing and Shanghai, there are 3 super charger stations in between, Changzhou, Suzhou and Wuxi. From Shanghai heading south, we have
Shanghai --> Hangzhou: 176km
Shanghzi --> Zhoushan: 287km

So above super charger stations not only covers the symbolic route between Beijing and Shanghai, but also pretty much covers the most affluent Yangtze river delta metropolitan area. The next big thing is to connect Yangtze river delta metropolitan area to Pearl river delta metropolitan area (Southern China around Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hongkong). The corridor is almost there just missing 2 super charger stations and I hope it can be online before Chinese New Year in Feburary.

For all intentions as soon as someone is able to make the trip with just superchargers the route is considered online. That was at least how people were following it in North America. The Coast to Coast trips that were well publicized happened under less than ideal situations both in terms of the spacing of chargers and weather conditions. But there was certainly a couple long stretches there where they originally had to do an almost full charge to make it from one to the next.

Same with the original route from DC to Boston, there was originally only like 2 chargers that got you the whole length and there was no way anyone in a 60 could dream of making the trip.

Norway, if you followed some of the early trips Bjorn took you would see he made some daring crosses as well in his 85 due to weather and distances between chargers.

So if you are looking for "possible" it would seem that Beijing to Shanghai is online. If you want practical, then yes, you will have to wait a bit longer. I know it is hard to remember what the US or Norway used to look like in the early days of supercharging, but China seems to be following a similar (if faster) path.

 

[Ingenieur]

Can anyone confirm it?

Pictures from Dealer operating official experience center in Xuzhu, selling Tesla alongside other brands

å¾å·žå”¯ä¸€â€œç‰¹æ–¯æ‹‰â€ä½“验中心盛大开业

 

[ScepticMatt]

That would be great. After that connect to Sichuan Basin.
Maybe in time for Chinese new year by the rate they currently going :tongue:

 

[maoing]

Yes， 3rd party reselling is around many cities in China. I think this won't be gone until Tesla has service centers in every major city.

Can anyone confirm it?

Pictures from Dealer operating official experience center in Xuzhu, selling Tesla alongside other brands

å¾￾州唯一“特斯拉â€￾体验ä¸*心盛大开业

 

[jhm]

I wonder if folks here could untangle the FUD in this piece? Tesla Tries To Jump-Start China Sales - Forbes

For one, the author says that while Tesla has "exported" 3500 to China, only 2000 have been registered, and he surmizes that the remainder is stuck in customs or something. This strikes me as FUD, but I do not have a firm enough grasp of the facts to refute it. I am thinking that Tesla actually says that it has delivered 3500 to paying customers, not merely "exported", and that the registration gap is a matter of timing and a large number being scalped by dealers. Scalpers would be willing to hold out for a high price which would induce a delay in registration. Do we know what the magnitude of scalping could be? Or is there some better explanation of what is going on.

If scalpers are sitting on substantial inventory, I would expect much of it is pre-autopilot. So they could be up for a world of hurt trying to unload obsoleted inventory. But hey, Tesla never invited them to sit on inventory and jack up prices for impatient customers willing to pat top dollar for the latest & greatest. The sclaper's target customer probably cannot wait to get their hands on a P85D.

 

[geturchiru]

Sorry, the page you requested could not be found - TheStreet
Can anyone confirm this?

(TSLA) shares are down 0.6% to $224.37 in early market trading on Tuesday following reports that the Chinese government is planning to extend its electric vehicle subsidies to 2020. However, the subsidies will only apply to domestically made electric vehicles while excluding imports like Tesla, according to Reuters.

Consumers who purchase pure electric vehicles, not hybrids, will be eligible for a 55,000 yuan ($8,834) subsidy, while buyers of pure electric buses will be eligible for a 500,000 yuan ($80,624.35) subsidy.

 

[sundaymorning]

Sorry, the page you requested could not be found - TheStreet
Can anyone confirm this?

The lack of subsidies didn't bother BMW or Mercedes, which charges about $300k for a 7series or S class, I don't think this will bother Tesla much. The Chinese love US imports, and having a car like Tesla only elevates one's status symbol, especially if one doesn't need subsidies to purchase it

 

[maoing]

The challenges of Tesla growth in China is not subsidies and not price tag. Instead it's charging infrastructure and service center deployment. We'll see a big leap in 2015, so I wouldn't worry about Tesla demand in China at all given there is sufficient supply from Fremont factory. Of course TM needs to execute their promise to deliver fatastic "D" model (currently has glitches) and on time delivery of "X" model.

 

[Ingenieur]

Maoning, what makes you so sure regarding demand in China?

I see China as Teslas Achilles Heel, from what i hear from my friends (mind you they quite biased anti-tesla as all work for German Car mfg in China), the demand was exagerrated by hidden bulk buyers(which is the reason Mrs Wu fired if my sources are to believed, as she actively enabled it while providing illiosion to Mgmt that it was all "normal" buyers demand), Tesla now has 9 Stores (some are called Exprience center with Service and Sale 2 in 1) in China and 2 in Hong Kong and the car is being sold by dozens of third party reseller dealers, although illegal, they are still gaining company some customer exposure. So if the demand was through the roof, wouldnt they all be reordering new cars? Currently you can still order Model S and get S60/85 in Feb, or Ds in March / April, same as europe.

My sources believe Tesla will switch to dealer model for China, using luxury car dealers selling Tesla along with other smaller luxury brands like Maserati, Aston Martin, Bentley & co, having regional service outposts with attached ranger service.

Now you can beat up the messanger with FUDster sticks

 

[sundaymorning]

Maoning, what makes you so sure regarding demand in China?

I see China as Teslas Achilles Heel, from what i hear from my friends (mind you they quite biased anti-tesla as all work for German Car mfg in China), the demand was exagerrated by hidden bulk buyers(which is the reason Mrs Wu fired if my sources are to believed

I love that you're not a bit bias. LOL One doesn't need to look too far to gage demand. Just look at the super charger networks. The more they expand, the more demand there are in that region. No one has better insight to this than Tesla, and by that I also would include your bias friends over at the German factories pumping out ICE. Of course, their best weapon against Tesla isn't a comparable EV, it's spreading FUD. And no, I couldn't care less about you spreading FUD, so there's no need for a beating, that happens naturally in the market as Tesla continues to rise

Maoing is right in this regard, I've seen Chjna first hand, the country is massive, with lots of people scattered throughout various provinces. Connecting them via supercharger network should be first priority, and Tesla is doing just that.

 

[maoing]

Ingenieur,

First, in 2014 Tesla is likely to delivery more than 5000 Model S to China market. Even it's off some investors' hefty expection to 10K level, but it's inline with Elon's initial estimate. And it makes sense not to delivery too many model S to China while infrastructure is not ready yet (per Elon from Q3 conference call) and TM is production constrained;

Second, Compared to EU, China market has much less super chargers, stores, service centers and TM only delivered for 9 months. So China market, in my opinion, is doing much better than EU in terms of efficiency (no offense, I know you are from EU );

Third, As I reiterated many times in this thread. China government is the most pro-EV government, so Tesla got good traction of growth in China. Otherwise you won't see the super charger stations grow so fast in China and many incentives from local governments;

Fourth, per my reading from WEIBO by searching "Tesla". The most concerns for affluent Chinese to buy Tesla is charging infrastructure (both destination and super charger), long distance driving (just opened up first route connnecting Beijing and Shanghai), service availability, inferior seat, fit and workmanship (improved a lot from P85D). I think Tesla is progressing fast on resolving those issues.

Without China market sucess, I think the Tesla story will be a lot faint. We'll see how it goes in 2015!


Btw, regarding FUDster stick. It's ridiculous because I'm 100% long TSLA. But the lesson I learned from 2014 is that investors should be "cautious" instead of blindly trust TM and Elon, otherwise easily got trapped.

Maoning, what makes you so sure regarding demand in China?

I see China as Teslas Achilles Heel, from what i hear from my friends (mind you they quite biased anti-tesla as all work for German Car mfg in China), the demand was exagerrated by hidden bulk buyers(which is the reason Mrs Wu fired if my sources are to believed, as she actively enabled it while providing illiosion to Mgmt that it was all "normal" buyers demand), Tesla now has 9 Stores (some are called Exprience center with Service and Sale 2 in 1) in China and 2 in Hong Kong and the car is being sold by dozens of third party reseller dealers, although illegal, they are still gaining company some customer exposure. So if the demand was through the roof, wouldnt they all be reordering new cars? Currently you can still order Model S and get S60/85 in Feb, or Ds in March / April, same as europe.

My sources believe Tesla will switch to dealer model for China, using luxury car dealers selling Tesla along with other smaller luxury brands like Maserati, Aston Martin, Bentley & co, having regional service outposts with attached ranger service.

Now you can beat up the messanger with FUDster sticks

 

[chickensevil]

Maoning, what makes you so sure regarding demand in China?

I see China as Teslas Achilles Heel, from what i hear from my friends (mind you they quite biased anti-tesla as all work for German Car mfg in China), the demand was exagerrated by hidden bulk buyers(which is the reason Mrs Wu fired if my sources are to believed, as she actively enabled it while providing illiosion to Mgmt that it was all "normal" buyers demand), Tesla now has 9 Stores (some are called Exprience center with Service and Sale 2 in 1) in China and 2 in Hong Kong and the car is being sold by dozens of third party reseller dealers, although illegal, they are still gaining company some customer exposure. So if the demand was through the roof, wouldnt they all be reordering new cars? Currently you can still order Model S and get S60/85 in Feb, or Ds in March / April, same as europe.

My sources believe Tesla will switch to dealer model for China, using luxury car dealers selling Tesla along with other smaller luxury brands like Maserati, Aston Martin, Bentley & co, having regional service outposts with attached ranger service.

Now you can beat up the messanger with FUDster sticks

It is interesting because "importers" are not just in China. There was someone here that is a rather active member who bought their car from an importer in Europe (It is our Estonian brother, can't recall the poster's handle off hand though), simply because Tesla had not (and I think still has not) expanded into his country. I am sure that the importers will drop when Tesla adequately expands into the regions. But whether or not Wu enabled the 3rd parties or not wouldn't incline me to think that Tesla is going to be more apt to switch to a dealer model. They care very deeply about the customer experience and as such don't want to trust that to a 3rd party to muck it up.

As a customer, if Tesla had not enabled the ability for me to easily (mostly) get my car here in the US, I would have likely sought the car out through other avenues. It is very likely that China is much the same way. Tesla has stated a couple times that they are not going to deliver to certain Chinese cities until they can ensure charging is available.

 

[RobStark]

It is our Estonian brother, can't recall the poster's handle off hand though.

Mario Kadastik

 

[maoing]

Added another 3 super charger stations in the last day of 2014! Now China has 51+4(Hongkong) = 55.
Besides that Japan has 4 and Australia has 2 in Asia-Pacific.

It's really exciting to watch how fast China super charger network grow, I think another 12 months from now it will have 150-200 super chargers stations across China and cover all major cities and long distance travel routes. It's truely revolutionary and it'll fundementally change the "bias" towards EV and thus stimulus much more demand.

 

[Ingenieur]

Tesla missed the 5000 target for 2014, just over 4000 sold according to this source (via AAStocks)

ÌØ˹À­ÔÚ»ªÀÛ¼ÆÏúÁ¿³¬4000̨ Äêµ×»òÒý½øSUV³µÐÍ|ÌØ˹À­_ÐÂÀ˲ƾ­_ÐÂÀËÍø

They may have imported more but not all could be sold, some are loaners/Test drives, btw another store/service center was opened somewhere in South, with Chengdu its 2 new centers in December

Q4 2014 11200 sales miss looks likely imo, depends on US as to how much

 

[techmaven]

Tesla missed the 5000 target for 2014, just over 4000 sold according to this source (via AAStocks)

ÌØ˹À*ÔÚ»ªÀÛ¼ÆÏúÁ¿³¬4000̨ Äêµ×»òÒý½øSUV³µÐÍ|ÌØ˹À*_ÐÂÀ˲ƾ*_ÐÂÀËÍø

They may have imported more but not all could be sold, some are loaners/Test drives, btw another store/service center was opened somewhere in South, with Chengdu its 2 new centers in December

Q4 2014 11200 sales miss looks likely imo, depends on US as to how much

Thanks for the update.

I'm not sure it's a miss according to the article. It says they sold more than 4,000. As of November, Tesla imported 4,344 into China. Therefore it doesn't include December, although there is some delay between imports and actual deliveries. It is normal for Tesla to import 700-800 vehicles on the 2nd and 3rd months of a quarter in China. Therefore, it is quite possible that Tesla imported more than 5,000 for 2014 - the question is how many are considered delivered to recognize the revenue.

 

[ScepticMatt]

Tianjin and Kunming superchargers are under construction and should open soon.
(according to Autohome user nogas who spotted the cangzhou supercharger)

edit: Chinese EV subsidies for 2015:

translation (with my poor chinese):
top row: range R in km. 80<R<150, 150<R<250, R>250, R>50
next three rows: subsidies for pure EVs for 2013,2014,2015
last three rows: subsidies for plug in-hybrid EVs for 2013,2014,2015.

values in wàn yuan, i.e. 10,000 yuan

Example: A model S produced in china would receive a 54,000 yuan (~$8,700) subsidy.