By 2030, 100% of cars will be electric & 100% of power will be from solar. True or false?

[Kandiru]

Nukular, as the Texan presidential dynastics would say.

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

there are trends and assymptotes . 100 percent? even if that is the direction, you don't get there. Tony Selba at Clean Disruption makes a good case for trend but these trends never make it to 100%

and- trends seem to ignore the rest of the things. happening in the world-

 

[wdolson]

We will be lucky to hit 35% by 2050, given the rate of adoption and transitioning away from fossil fuels. Most of the automotive industry is just paying lip service (compliance numbers) to appease the governments request for improved fuel efficiency, they have not real vested interest in helping accelerate that transition unlike Tesla Motors which is in this for the long haul and has invested greatly to make this happen faster sooner rather than later.

I think the landscape will change when public demand changes and that will happen after the Model 3 gets out there and people check out their neighbor's car. 400,000 reservations is a lot, but it's still less than 0.5% of yearly car production worldwide. The car companies are sitting back telling themselves that most of those 400,000 will cancel when Tesla disappoints them and doesn't deliver on time, but if they come in anywhere near on schedule and the problems with the car aren't any more severe than any other new car, demand will skyrocket even further and the race will be on to catch up with Tesla.

The problem is the world will need 200 more Gigafactories (or the equivalent) to replace yearly car production and that's going to take a lot of capital and a lot of time to build out.

50% of new car production being BEVs might be achievable by 2050, but there will still be a lot of ICE on the road for many years after that. We will also have ICE enthusiasts and collectors who will want to take their old cars out and drive them, but it will be like the old classic aircraft world. There is a following for WW II aircraft, but the remaining WW II vintage planes are only a small fraction of the aircraft flying in the world.

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

WWII aircraft is a better analogy than mine. I still have my sliderules. They are y2k compliant and never need batteries. Never 100%, bt asyemtototic (sp?)

 

[neroden]

Greetings,

I am a documentary filmmaker based in Portland, Maine. I do not currently own a Tesla, but am planning to buy a used Model 3 after they become available in a couple of years.

For my first post on this forum, I would like to share this 2-mintue video that I produced about the future of solar power and electric cars. It is seeking an answer to the above question.

walker.tv/blog/solar-powered-cars

What do you think? Is it true or false?

False, but barely.

I think by *2035*, 99% of *new* cars will be electric (but there will still be "classic" cars on the road), and at least 95% of electric power will be from renewable sources (but there will be niche corner cases, and some of the renewables will be wind and hydro).

You overstated your case.

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

One more kink...Solar collector farms intercept sunlight that has been warming the earth forever. Now that desert is in the shade, and critters that made their living off that energy are being starved. The energy is siphoned into another eco system, leaving a energy depleted wasteland behind. Putting collectors on a roof ignore the fact that the building itself displaced nature. We can only displace nature so far - its not unlimited.
We can say "so what - its just snakes and kangaroo rats" or "drain the swamp, its better for Man".
So - a complete energy balance does not just capture energy and pipe it elsewhere, it looks at the consequences. Engineers are good at this. Management guys who do are few and far between.

 

[cpa]

One more kink...Solar collector farms intercept sunlight that has been warming the earth forever. Now that desert is in the shade, and critters that made their living off that energy are being starved. The energy is siphoned into another eco system, leaving a energy depleted wasteland behind. Putting collectors on a roof ignore the fact that the building itself displaced nature. We can only displace nature so far - its not unlimited.
We can say "so what - its just snakes and kangaroo rats" or "drain the swamp, its better for Man".
So - a complete energy balance does not just capture energy and pipe it elsewhere, it looks at the consequences. Engineers are good at this. Management guys who do are few and far between.

Amen to that. Capitalism looks only to the here and now; it only concerns itself with any unintended consequences if and when they arise. Kangaroo rats and snakes are "disposable" to many (not me.)

We need look no further to the water issues confronting us here in California. Sixty years ago when I was small we had plenty of water for everyone. Now the population of California has increased over 250% (if I recall correctly.) Farming acreage has increased by a lot as well. Water is no longer plentiful. Yet many people say to dam every possible river and stream. Let the fish die--it is only a fish. Let the SJ/Sac River delta become brackish all the way to Stockton. I do not believe in speciesism. Sorry if I offended anyone.

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

Amen to that. Capitalism looks only to the here and now; it only concerns itself with any unintended consequences if and when they arise. Kangaroo rats and snakes are "disposable" to many (not me.)

We need look no further to the water issues confronting us here in California. Sixty years ago when I was small we had plenty of water for everyone. Now the population of California has increased over 250% (if I recall correctly.) Farming acreage has increased by a lot as well. Water is no longer plentiful. Yet many people say to dam every possible river and stream. Let the fish die--it is only a fish. Let the SJ/Sac River delta become brackish all the way to Stockton. I do not believe in speciesism. Sorry if I offended anyone.

We are soul mates on this water balance issue. Perhaps even enemies - as I want my full ration of colorado river water and you want your ration to be higher priority than mine, so you can take from my share (?).
I have published plans that can do a salt balance to preserve the farmland draining into the salon sea, stabilize and remove salt from the salon sea, dispose of the excess salt from the municipalities of Phoenix and Tucson. Nobel cause - but requires cooperation from farmers, municipalities, Californians Mexicans and Arizonans. Because of the political and self interests - a good engineering plan collects dust on the shelf while we kill the soil.
The solution? Hope an asteroid/epidemic/war resets the human population? Expect politicians to agree on a fair and balanced plan (yeah, right). Grab my share while the grabbing is good?
Maybe I should go live with the kangaroo rats...getting depressed with this view of the future.

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

We are soul mates on this water balance issue. Perhaps even enemies - as I want my full ration of colorado river water and you want your ration to be higher priority than mine, so you can take from my share (?).
I have published plans that can do a salt balance to preserve the farmland draining into the salon sea, stabilize and remove salt from the salon sea, dispose of the excess salt from the municipalities of Phoenix and Tucson. Nobel cause - but requires cooperation from farmers, municipalities, Californians Mexicans and Arizonans. Because of the political and self interests - a good engineering plan collects dust on the shelf while we kill the soil.
The solution? Hope an asteroid/epidemic/war resets the human population? Expect politicians to agree on a fair and balanced plan (yeah, right). Grab my share while the grabbing is good?
Maybe I should go live with the kangaroo rats...getting depressed with this view of the future.

{damn spell check - I was saying Salton Sea - just north of El Centro Calif. Don't know there is a salon sea - perhaps a drunk tank?}