Brexit

[Singer3000]

'Delusional' for Brexit Britain to expect US trade deal

Larry Summers : "In the same way, establishing absolutely that, as a matter of sacred principle, your leaving Europe has to be the worst way to give you leverage with any new potential partners."

If I may add, "Brexit" is almost a partisan issue in the US because Dems associate Brexit with Trump (who supported it). They also look at Brexit win as similar to Trump win - for similar reasons. I can't see anything around Brexit passing the House - even though, conceivably Trump will be sympathetic.

There is still too much emotion wrapped up in Brexit because it is yet to occur. Therefore people still think there's value in debating its merits and whether it should go ahead, and they then take strong political stances based upon their assessment of this.

Once Brexit becomes a historical fact, this will soon change. Congress will be presented with a trade deal that not only is quite likely to be weighted in favour of US producers and consumers, but also that enhances the relationship with the USA's key security partner. Whether it's Donald Trump or Donald Duck as President, or a Red or Blue Congress, something will get wrapped up pretty quickly.

The security angle is also the primary reason why there are doubts in some European capitals about pushing the UK towards a cliff edge exit. A messy Brexit could sour social and geopolitical relations for a generation and the EU (for now) still needs the UK in its security orbit. So whether there will be an exit along the lines of the Withdrawal Agreement , or a "No Deal", the reality is that the exit is likely to be far smoother than most imagine.

In the days of May and Hammond, there were plenty of doomsday predictions of UK visitors needing visas, overseas British students being kicked out their courses, science projects being cancelled mid way through, UK hauliers being unlicensed to travel on European roads, UK-based airlines being restricted from EU airspace (even making direct UK-US flights practically impossible!) etc... These scenarios and many more have already been averted:

The EU cannot afford a no-deal Brexit. Luckily, it has a parachute handy
"At the last count, there were 100 “preparedness notices” published and 109 contingency measures approved, with 46 no-deal laws proposed or adopted".

Larry Summers quite predictably misses the point. The UK has outsourced its trade policy for decades to a central bureaucracy, that has been only weakly motivated to conclude a formal trade agreement with the USA (especially so on terms that are favourable to the UK's services based economy). The UK's position will therefore certainly be stronger than now, as it will finally have the choice of whether to agree a deal with the US (it's single biggest export destination) based upon whatever negotiated terms, or walking away and sticking to the status quo.

 

[EVNow]

Once Brexit becomes a historical fact, this will soon change. Congress will be presented with a trade deal that not only is quite likely to be weighted in favour of US producers and consumers, but also that enhances the relationship with the USA's key security partner. Whether it's Donald Trump or Donald Duck as President, or a Red or Blue Congress, something will get wrapped up pretty quickly.

This is likely as true as Melton Mowbray export pork pies to Thailand and Iceland.

 

[Singer3000]

This is likely as true as Melton Mowbray export pork pies to Thailand and Iceland.

So very true in that case?

I guess you missed that the debunking of Boris's comments that Melton Mowbrays have been exported to Thailand and Iceland has itself been debunked by the UK's largest producer:

"Walker and Son now makes almost 90% of the UK's Melton Mowbray pork pies...exports are less than 1% of annual turnover, with small shipments being sent to Iceland, Thailand, Singapore and the Caribbean".​

Either way this is a totally inane story symptomatic of the increasingly deranged loss of perspective from swathes of the UK's media. All it has achieved is to play into Boris's hands, as it has taken us one day closer to the Brexit deadline without serious interrogation of what follows.

 

[EVNow]

So very true in that case?

I guess you missed that the debunking of Boris's comments that Melton Mowbrays have been exported to Thailand and Iceland has itself been debunked by the UK's largest producer:

"Walker and Son now makes almost 90% of the UK's Melton Mowbray pork pies...exports are less than 1% of annual turnover, with small shipments being sent to Iceland, Thailand, Singapore and the Caribbean".​

Either way this is a totally inane story symptomatic of the increasingly deranged loss of perspective from swathes of the UK's media. All it has achieved is to play into Boris's hands, as it has taken us one day closer to the Brexit deadline without serious interrogation of what follows.

I'd put the chances of House quickly approving a trade deal at around the same 1%

BTW, debunked is a weird term.

Chairman of the Melton Mowbray Pork Pie Association @MeltonMatthew says his pies are not sold in Thailand or Iceland. Boris Johnson claimed they were sold there but not in the US, when he was giving an example of an American trade restriction #r4today bbc.in/2zpMUUI
​

And because Walker and Son says they don't export to Thailand.

Telling porkies? Boris Johnson’s Melton Mowbray pork pie claim fails truth test

It is understood that a small number of pies were sent to Iceland and Thailand as part of a trial in 2015, but Walker and Son have not exported pies to either country for at least a couple of years.
​

That Johnson gives such a weird example is emblematic of how deceitful the Brexit campaign has always been.

 

[Cherry Wine]

So this turned into even more of a shitshow. Interested in the thoughts of the regulars in this thread.

 

[EVNow]

So this turned into even more of a shitshow. Interested in the thoughts of the regulars in this thread.

Looks like -
No Second Referendum - because they know people won't back it next time
Suspend Parliament - because they know parliament will not back a no deal Brexit

At this point it is not clear what sovereignty or Democracy Brexiters were talking about. So, here is the obligatory Hitler reference.

Jan 30th 1933

Hitler asked president Hindenburg to dissolve parliament to bypass those trying to stop because of "the will of the people"

28th of Aug 2019

Johnson ask the Queen to suspend parliament to stop it preventing a no Deal Brexit because of "the will of the people"​

 

[RobStark]

It's rogue ones vs. prorogue ones as MPs fight to seize control of Brexit

 

[Singer3000]

Hitler references. Give me strength.

We’re in the endgame now basically. Seems to me Johnson / Cummings will do their best to force through an exit in Oct and there are persuasive arguments from constitutional experts that they’ll succeed. But even if every convention is thrown away to block them from doing so, they’ll be quite happy as it sets up the narrative they want for the election.

Labour’s policy if they win the election, is:
1) to renegotiate a new deal
2) to hold a second referendum on that deal vs Remain
3) but to campaign for Remain.

All over the place.

Lib Dem policy is:
1) to hold a second second referendum on Remain vs some sort of Leave
2) if Leave wins then to Remain anyway.

All over the place.

And as a consequence these two parties are eating each other’s potential vote share. If the Lib Dems dropped the second ref lie and just said they would immediately revoke Article 50 and never return to the issue, they’d probably come in second place but there’s a ceiling probably in the high 20 percents even to that.

All of which means Johnson can likely get a majority on about 35% of the vote, whereas May lost her majority despite getting 42%. If so he will also have much greater control over Parliament, because he will deselect those unwilling to stand on a No Deal If Necessary platform. Could see a good handful of Tories leaving the party as soon as this week so they can vote against the government.

This is all fighting economic and political gravity anyway and Hammond and Grieve and co can’t fight it forever. We are reaching the end of this latest phase of globalist capitalism, based upon low barriers to unskilled immigration, offshoring of jobs and supernormal untaxed profits for MNCs, resulting in very high household debt. Either the EU becomes a country or it will fail, it cannot last much longer as a supranational body without being crushed by its own contradictions. Culturally there is no way the UK ever fits in with that model. So it’s Leave now or Leave after the sugar hits the fan.

 

[Buckminster]

I don't see a general election being very likely but you never know - Boris is unpredictable. Boris has backed himself into a corner by choice. Following G7 where the leaders were suggesting changes to the deal were possible, Barnier has now stated - no changes again. I think Boris may well settle for a no deal, he certainly believes EU will cave eventually but by then will they be able to agree on changes?

Proroguing not a big deal - there won't be anything to debate anyway until the last few days. Boris still has momentum which counts for a lot.

My update (agnostic on elections, timelines, referendums, leadership contests):
No deal - 45%
Hard Brexit (Canada or similar) - 15%
Theresa May deal with alterations (including removal of backstop) - 30%
Norway/Soft Brexit - 5%
Remain following referendum - 5%

 

[busaman]

as far as i can see it has only ever going to be a no deal and as for all thes whingers like there having there toys taken away on the ballot paper to vote there were only 2 options

REMAIN or LEAVE

LEAVE won so lets just get on with it if any government decides to go against the will of the people they would never be trusted again and most likely NEVER re-elected.

 

[Buckminster]

 

[EVNow]

as far as i can see it has only ever going to be a no deal and as for all thes whingers like there having there toys taken away on the ballot paper to vote there were only 2 options

REMAIN or LEAVE

LEAVE won so lets just get on with it if any government decides to go against the will of the people they would never be trusted again and most likely NEVER re-elected.

There is nothing sacrosanct about one referendum. As time and circumstances change, it is perfectly democratic to want to have another referendum. Irrespective of how many all-caps are used.

 

[busaman]

so why did the USA not have another vote when trump was elected to see if they could get the vote THEY wanted(hilary clinton) on the second go

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

as far as i can see it has only ever going to be a no deal and as for all thes whingers like there having there toys taken away on the ballot paper to vote there were only 2 options

REMAIN or LEAVE

LEAVE won so lets just get on with it if any government decides to go against the will of the people they would never be trusted again and most likely NEVER re-elected.

But what if the will of the people now is to stay in the EU? Maybe even by a larger majority than the leave vote got last time? And this time based on much better information about what a Brexit implies? If it really is about the will of the people, then there should be no objection to a second referendum.

 

[EVNow]

so why did the USA not have another vote when trump ...

We will soon in '20. BTW, we did have a mid term in '18 that put a big obstacle to whatever Trump may want to do.

Clearly a "no deal" doesn't have a mandate.

 

[RobStark]

But what if the will of the people now is to stay in the EU? Maybe even by a larger majority than the leave vote got last time? And this time based on much better information about what a Brexit implies? If it really is about the will of the people, then there should be no objection to a second referendum.

Polls show a general election held today would result in a ~25 seat Tory majority. A Tory MP contingent deselected of Remainers and excluding DUP seats.

Given the EU unwillingness to budge on the Irish backstop a No deal Brexit is a done deal IMO.

EU traditional policy of delaying,badgering and bullying a rebellious populace until they vote the way the EU wants them to vote appears to have failed this time.

 

[Singer3000]

Polls show a general election held today would result in a ~25 seat Tory majority. A Tory MP contingent deselected of Remainers and excluding DUP seats.

Given the EU unwillingness to budge on the Irish backstop a No deal Brexit is a done deal IMO.

EU traditional policy of delaying,badgering and bullying a rebellious populace until they vote the way the EU wants them to vote appears to have failed this time.

I agree. If the referendum result isn't carried by this parliament, it will ultimately be done by the next following an election.

This is actually the trap that Cummings/Johnson are laying, because elections are fought under First Past the Past, which gives them a structural bias compared with a new referendum (most of the Remain vote was piled up in a few areas, Leave was geographically spread). That said, there will be some really odd results at a local level. I know previously ardent Remainers that now want No Deal because they just want it over so there is certainty for their business. I know life long Tories and former (quite senior) Labour members that will either not vote or vote Lib Dem. And then there's the Brexit Party element in Labour's heartlands.

Try polling all of that. Johnson is calculating that when it comes, the Leave vote at the election will be less split than the Remain vote, and that he'll still keep a good amount of his own Remain vote because of the Corbyn SPECTRE.

 

[Dutchie]

as far as i can see it has only ever going to be a no deal and as for all thes whingers like there having there toys taken away on the ballot paper to vote there were only 2 options

REMAIN or LEAVE

LEAVE won so lets just get on with it if any government decides to go against the will of the people they would never be trusted again and most likely NEVER re-elected.

It is just that the whole leave campaign was one big lie! They were talking about the Norway Model or Canada Model relation with the EU. There would be a great deal in the making which would be the easiest in history. One beautiful deal because Europe would be on their knees for Britain to remain in the customs union. The leave campaign never talked about a NO-seal scenario. Nobody voted for that. That was never the intention.

 

[Buckminster]

You people are as bad as the media - polarised views. A third, middle way must be found which the British people have come around too. Aiming for a deal, with the risk of a no deal is legitimate, as long as the risk is small. Taking the deal on offer is also legitimate.

 

[busaman]

It is just that the whole leave campaign was one big lie! They were talking about the Norway Model or Canada Model relation with the EU. There would be a great deal in the making which would be the easiest in history. One beautiful deal because Europe would be on their knees for Britain to remain in the customs union. The leave campaign never talked about a NO-seal scenario. Nobody voted for that. That was never the intention.

talk about lies did you actually listen to some of the crap the remain camp was spouting we would go back to the dark ages
anyway we got on just fine before we joined the common maket(to trade with europe) which was later ramped up to be the EU.

leave means leave so that to me means a no deal.