Articles/megaposts by DaveT

[PeterW]

I would like to add my voice in thanking you Dave for an awesome series, I really enjoy reading them. For me posts 11 & 12 have been the best yet.

On the subject of verticle intergration; I remember Elon complaining about the cost of aluminium a while back. Do you think an aluminium smelter could be on the cards at some stage?

 

[EVNow]

Gen4 and competitors - 3/22/14

What I'd like to see is your take on Gen 3 competitors as we know more about next gen EVs from Nissan, Infiniti & GM.

Seems to me we'll see in 2017
- 150 mile range $35k Leaf
- 200 mile range $40k Infiniti
- 200 miles range $?? GM BEV

 

[Chickenlittle]

I would like to add my voice in thanking you Dave for an awesome series, I really enjoy reading them. For me posts 11 & 12 have been the best yet.

On the subject of verticle intergration; I remember Elon complaining about the cost of aluminium a while back. Do you think an aluminium smelter could be on the cards at some stage?

Could be. Alcoa has patented the technology for use in preparing the aluminum in bonding it for cars. They ran into concern companies had in using a single supplier for the aluminum, so they licensed it to other firms with royalties to Alcoa

 

[Larken]

Also the possible collaboration between Tesla and BMW which will hopefully result in BMW letting Tesla use its carbon fiber patents in exchange for Teslas (vastly better) patents. Imagine the weight reduction improvements and all the subsequently amazing benefits to the Tesla vehicles.

 

[RobStark]

Seems to me we'll see in 2017
- 150 mile range $35k LEAF
- 200 mile range $40k Infiniti
- 200 miles range $?? GM BEV

In this scenario Infiniti does not charge a premium for the added features of the LE like wireless charging and premium interior. Only a premium for bigger battery.

My guess
- 120 mile range $35k Leaf
- 150 mile range $45k Infiniti LE

Infiniti will charge a premium for being a premium brand, premium service plus the added features.


- 200 miles range $35k GM BEV

My guess here is a highly compromised compliance car.

A sub-compact with a non-dedicated EV platform with cramped interior and very little storage area because the battery has eaten it up.

It will probably be very quick and a kick in the pants to drive though.

 

[dalalsid]

In this scenario Infiniti does not charge a premium for the added features of the LE like wireless charging and premium interior. Only a premium for bigger battery.

My guess
- 120 mile range $35k Leaf
- 150 mile range $45k Infiniti LE

Infiniti will charge a premium for being a premium brand, premium service plus the added features.


- 200 miles range $35k GM BEV

My guess here is a highly compromised compliance car.

A sub-compact with a non-dedicated EV platform with cramped interior and very little storage area because the battery has eaten it up.

It will probably be very quick and a kick in the pants to drive though.

How would a 150 mile $45k infiniti compete with a Tesla Model 3? Great lease deals making the monthly payment a lot lower than Tesla? Features? Bigger volume for lower wait times (very unlikely)? Or just brand recognition?

 

[Mitthrawnuruodo]

At a Fremont tour, I was told by my host, an assembly line manager, that Lathrop is intended to be a lights out RDU factory. I believe this is Rear Drive Unit and the same component will be used in both X/S. These will effectively ship out to Fremont and be plugged into each car. I might have the component description slightly wrong, this was a while ago, but the RDU's are meant to be made entirely there and free up space at Fremont.

 

[Lessmog]

What I'd like to see is your take on Gen 3 competitors as we know more about next gen EVs from Nissan, Infiniti & GM.

Seems to me we'll see in 2017
- 150 mile range $35k Leaf
- 200 mile range $40k Infiniti
- 200 miles range $?? GM BEV

It seems that only yesterday the zombie Saab company Nevs presented four prototype electric cars based on the 9-3 model in Trollhättan.
(Great pity super sports car enthusiast and maker (and ModelS owner!) Christian von Koenigsegg was stopped from buying the original Saab company!)
This one is limited to 120 kph and said to have a range of 200 km or ~125 miles. Nevs was also a hairswidth from disaster because some Chinese debtor failed to pay and some customer threatened to file for bankruptcy over some $15k, but that seems to have cleared out. NEVS el-SAAB - Tesla Club Sweden <--Sorry, in Swedish, try googletranslate :redface:
Aaa-nyhow, if this company manages to survive yet again and if it is capable of exports from Sweden to other countries than China, then perhaps it will also become one of thos also-rans for Gen3 competitors.

Just some more dust for the grist mill (or mist for the dumb grill) :tongue:

 

[FluxCap]

Dave, I posted this over in the Long-Term thread, but I'm very curious to hear your thoughts on an article by someone whose analysis I've been impressed with. The style of this article and its thoroughness remind me of your own analysis. I think this article reveals a ton about why Tesla has peers, but also has no peers. Thoughts?

Risk Laboratory: Ophir Gottlieb: * Tesla (TSLA) - A Depth of Analysis Like Never Before & 10 Charts That Will Blow Your Mind

 

[chickensevil]

Since I found the post here first, thanks for linking it, I will go to the LT thread and post a response on it there. I actually really like this

 

[RobStark]

How would a 150 mile $45k infiniti compete with a Tesla Model 3? Great lease deals making the monthly payment a lot lower than Tesla? Features? Bigger volume for lower wait times (very unlikely)? Or just brand recognition?

IMO they don't. Infinit will say that the LE is a luxury vehicle with lots of standard luxury equipment and they seem to think wireless home charging is a very big deal plus the fact that their Chademo network has many more charge points than the Supercharger network.

Plus they think their dealership network across the US is an advantage. They will say the car is available and service is available in every single state.

And Yes lease deals. Eventually. Because they will have no other choice.

 

[chickensevil]

IMO they don't. Infinit will say that the LE is a luxury vehicle with lots of standard luxury equipment and they seem to think wireless home charging is a very big deal plus the fact that their Chademo network has many more charge points than the Supercharger network.

Plus they think their dealership network across the US is an advantage. They will say the car is available and service is available in every single state.

And Yes lease deals. Eventually. Because they will have no other choice.

Sounds like a great bashing of Tesla... You should work for their advertising team (and yes, I realize this was all written in a tongue-in-cheek fashion... but it really is the crap they will try to claim, so please don't take this as me being against you...)

 

[RobStark]

Nissan(well technically the Chademo Association) came out with new map of Chademo network.

They don't show how many are out of order today.:tongue:

 

[DaveT]

On the subject of verticle intergration; I remember Elon complaining about the cost of aluminium a while back. Do you think an aluminium smelter could be on the cards at some stage?

I don't know much about the aluminum process so can't really give an educated reply on this.

- - - Updated - - -

What I'd like to see is your take on Gen 3 competitors as we know more about next gen EVs from Nissan, Infiniti & GM.

Seems to me we'll see in 2017
- 150 mile range $35k Leaf
- 200 mile range $40k Infiniti
- 200 miles range $?? GM BEV

I'll have a post in the series to give my take on the competition to Gen3.

- - - Updated - - -

At a Fremont tour, I was told by my host, an assembly line manager, that Lathrop is intended to be a lights out RDU factory. I believe this is Rear Drive Unit and the same component will be used in both X/S. These will effectively ship out to Fremont and be plugged into each car. I might have the component description slightly wrong, this was a while ago, but the RDU's are meant to be made entirely there and free up space at Fremont.

This makes sense for Tesla to make their rear drive units at Lathrop and probably explains why there were so many CNC job list is for Lathrop.

- - - Updated - - -

Dave, I posted this over in the Long-Term thread, but I'm very curious to hear your thoughts on an article by someone whose analysis I've been impressed with. The style of this article and its thoroughness remind me of your own analysis. I think this article reveals a ton about why Tesla has peers, but also has no peers. Thoughts?

Risk Laboratory: Ophir Gottlieb: * Tesla (TSLA) - A Depth of Analysis Like Never Before & 10 Charts That Will Blow Your Mind

Thanks, I wasn't impressed with the article. It seemed like they just put the obvious into graphs, namely that Tesla looks like a high-growth company while the other auto makers don't.

 

[The Blue Owl]

Thanks, I wasn't impressed with the article. It seemed like they just put the obvious into graphs, namely that Tesla looks like a high-growth company while the other auto makers don't.

It looks obvious to us, but not necessarily to others, especially those who are used to evaluate companies by looking exclusively at financial metrics. I liked the write-up because it is an easy link to send to people who are skeptical about the stock because "the market cap of TSLA is 1 million dollars per car produced". It speaks their language.

 

[Wenche]

Tank you very much for sharing, Dave. I have followed your postings from October 2012, and find your posts always very interesting to read

 

[mershaw2001]

At a Fremont tour, I was told by my host, an assembly line manager, that Lathrop is intended to be a lights out RDU factory. I believe this is Rear Drive Unit and the same component will be used in both X/S. These will effectively ship out to Fremont and be plugged into each car. I might have the component description slightly wrong, this was a while ago, but the RDU's are meant to be made entirely there and free up space at Fremont.

What is meant by "lights out"? Is that just a colloquialism that means "only RDU"?

 

[FluxCap]

Thanks, I wasn't impressed with the article. It seemed like they just put the obvious into graphs, namely that Tesla looks like a high-growth company while the other auto makers don't.

Well I'm not saying it's complete by any means. The guy who wrote it pulled out some ratios and plotted them graphically vs others in industry, and though we here may take some of these metrics for granted, many do not. I think it's useful to visualize data like this at times to present the stark differences to a wider audience.

 

[aronth5]

I would like to add my voice in thanking you Dave for an awesome series, I really enjoy reading them. For me posts 11 & 12 have been the best yet.

On the subject of verticle intergration; I remember Elon complaining about the cost of aluminium a while back. Do you think an aluminium smelter could be on the cards at some stage?

The cost of aluminum certainly has gone which would explain why Elon was complaining. Not good as they try to improve margins.

http://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/aluminum/6-month/

 

[chickensevil]

Well I'm not saying it's complete by any means. The guy who wrote it pulled out some ratios and plotted them graphically vs others in industry, and though we here may take some of these metrics for granted, many do not. I think it's useful to visualize data like this at times to present the stark differences to a wider audience.

That is certainly why I enjoyed it. Many of us have tried telling others to stop comparing Tesla to any other car company but no one has ever done it in such a clear way. Visual representation (if done correctly) can tell a story so much better and concisely than words can.

"A picture is worth a thousand words"