Are you also investing in Tesla?

[Iamthecaliflower]

I understand. You are right. It's a bad habit of mine. I will try to stay more on topic regarding the products, and focus less on the stock. This will be my last post regarding the stock for a while :biggrin:

I hope Tesla is as successful as Apple over the next 20 years. That is my thesis. I am betting that it will be valued at 10x where it is now in 5 years. Possibly 20x if it can get a PE of 20. Once the Model S takes off, there will be no stopping them. However, somewhere in my stomach I am getting a bad feeling that someone or something may cause a "delay" in getting the Model S out, or something may prevent it from getting a 5 star rating. If either if these things happens, the company/ the stock may be in for a tough time and could collapse. This is something that we will likely know about within the next 2 weeks. Possibly sooner. Out of curiosity, what percentage of your portfolio did you put in Apple 20 years ago? How did you manage waiting for the company to do well, knowing it might not show for 5-10 (or in your case 20 years) or that it might fail?

 

[dsm363]

I only bought a token number of shares and then basically never looked at it again. I wish I had invested something each month in them but oh well. People predicted Apple's doom on a yearly basis throughout the 1990s as well.
I'm not sure Tesla's stock will go up 10 times in the next 5 years but anything is possible.

 

[Iamthecaliflower]

Only reason I say 10x the current price is that the current valuation is almost completely arbitrary. Some analysts are predicting an earnings of about $2-3EPS for 2015 implying at the current price the PE of 10x 2015 estimates. However, I again feel this is a mistake since it ignores new deals that will come about, as well as the 3rd Generation car, and any further derivatives of the Model S platform. In my opinion to value Tesla one needs to look to at-least 2016-2017, at which point at-least 200-300k of the 3rd generation in addition to any further derivatives of the Model S/future cars they come up with will be sold annually if all goes as planned. The Tesla facility has the capacity to produce 500k cars annually. Basically, assuming Tesla succeeds with the Model S launch, I predict it will be smooth sailing through 2015. After 2015, we will need to see if enough people will buy the 3rd Gen to sell 200k annually. Will also be interesting to see where battery tech is at that time.

I will try to hold and not look :biggrin:

 

[JRP3]

Just remember that APPL wasn't a great investment for the first 15 years or so. I expect TSLA to do better in that time period.

 

[AnOutsider]

Well - I'm interested in both the stock and the company. Also, this is the investing topic
At this moment in time, understanding how the company is operating is directly impacting the stock. There are no fundamentals to go on, since Tesla needs to prove to investors that it will be around in 1 year, which can only happen once they have successfully delivered the first round of cars, and are raved about as the best car of the year.

I don't know enough about the technical aspects of Teslas cars to say much in the discussion, aside from the reason that they are revolutionary, but I am familiar with the events that should impact the stock. I am planning on buying a Tesla with profits from the stock, thus the stock is pretty important to me

Most of us here aren't worried because we're not just stock players, we're actually following the company so we know the risks and upside. We know their plans. Perhaps you should spend a bit more time here learning about the company instead of just biting your nails over the stock. You might sleep better, and we won't have to witness another meltdown.

As an aside, you keep mentioning your thesis. Are you investing for a school project? do you fail if it hits a certain number?

Regarding the insider trading, not sure how Tesla the company would be liable, but it definitely feels like something fishy went down.

 

[Kipernicus]

Just remember that APPL wasn't a great investment for the first 15 years or so. I expect TSLA to do better in that time period.

Yes, I bought some Apple shares on the simple notion that "Steve Jobs is da MAN" when he rejoined the company. But after several years of nothing I sold out, a year or two before the iPod came out . I will hold strong to my faith in TSLA so that doesn't happen again!

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

Yes, I bought some Apple shares on the simple notion that "Steve Jobs is da MAN" when he rejoined the company. But after several years of nothing I sold out, a year or two before the iPod came out . I will hold strong to my faith in TSLA so that doesn't happen again!

I don't think there's ever a "good time" to sell any given stock. AAPL's at ~$450 these days and many might think that it's a good price to sell at (as some probably did at $120 or at $300) but, some want to hold on till $800!

My point is that it's best to 'fire and forget' (much as dsm363 said) until you badly need the money or you truly feel that the company's going to tank. Easier said than done though: I suspect a lot of us are a bit like califlower to varying degrees :smile:

 

[NigelM]

I don't think there's ever a "good time" to sell any given stock.

A good time to sell is when you've got a profit you're happy with.

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

A good time to sell is when you've got a profit you're happy with.

True! Although happiness is such a subjective thing :smile:

What's up with this btw? Oil industry sees no threat from electric car - Yahoo! Finance

...the U.S. Energy Information Administration ...
... predicts that neither consumers, nor carmakers, will get over 'range anxiety'. By 2035, the agency sees few, if any, electric vehicles on U.S. roads that can travel for 200 miles without recharging.

Huh?! Last I checked, it's 2012 and we are going to have a ~300 mile range EV by July?!

 

[Mycroft]

The article also says that EVs will always cost more than their petrol equivalents. The oil industry is driving while looking in the rearview mirror. There has yet to be an EV produced that has been able to take advantage of economies of scale. In the next year or two, that's going to happen. EV technology is improving and decreasing in cost every year.

If you drive while only using the rearview mirror, you end up hitting something very hard.

 

[NigelM]

The comment in that article is not based on the report extract but seems to be based on the available excel calculations available from the E.I.A. This spreadsheet looks to be full of way too many zero's and makes no sense of even today's numbers....Me thinks Reuters didn't do their homework:

View attachment suptab_63.xls

 

[GSP]

The article also says that EVs will always cost more than their petrol equivalents. The oil industry is driving while looking in the rearview mirror. There has yet to be an EV produced that has been able to take advantage of economies of scale. In the next year or two, that's going to happen. EV technology is improving and decreasing in cost every year.

If you drive while only using the rearview mirror, you end up hitting something very hard.

Reminds me of a story about a railroad funded "future of transportation" study in the 1930's. It predicted all sorts of passenger rail advancements, with good reasons those new-fangled flying machines would never be economical or safe.

GSP

 

[AndrewBissell]

I've copied this across from another thread where I first highlighted the story:

Oil industry sees no threat from electric car - Yahoo! Finance

Essentially Exxon and BP believe that by 2030 and even 2040 EVs will only represent 5% or less of the road vehicle fleet and that oil will supply 87% (balance being biofuels and natural gas).

As the article says the oil companies' projections are self-serving. I hope politicians and public are not deceived by them into inaction. I also hope for the article's view that the projections might spur politicians to more incentives for EV adoption.

Finally - I recall sectors past that have made projections like this: gas lighting, typewriters, long-distance passenger trains in the US (though that one just may make a comeback).

 

[Robert.Boston]

A good time to sell is when you've got a profit you're happy with.

Agreed - I bought AAPL at ~$120, sold at about ~$375. Yes, I've missed the latest run up, but tripling my money seemed good enough, and I was (and remain) concerned about AAPL's prospects without Jobs.

 

[Robert.Boston]

This isn't Reuter's problem, it's the EIA's. They have *no* hybrids in the model?? Sheesh.

 

[daniel]

I've always believed that these so-called 'analysts' pulled these stock price targets out of.... thin air! :wink: They almost help make it happen too with their upgrades and such barring any catastrophic failure of the company.

Sorry if I'm offending any stock pickers here but, if they are really smart enough to figure out where there's money to be made, they'd get rich without having to sell their 'advice' and stock picks to the rest of us!

Yep! It would be interesting to see a study (maybe a possible subject for a thesis here?) looking at the historical reliability of stock advice from the major analysts.

There's laws against insider trading....

There's no law against investing by professional analysts. Only against using information not available to the public.

I hope Tesla is as successful as Apple over the next 20 years. That is my thesis. I am betting that it will be valued at 10x where it is now in 5 years. Possibly 20x if it can get a PE of 20. Once the Model S takes off, there will be no stopping them.

I hope you are right, since I want EVs to succeed, and I think Tesla is a well-managed company that has a good chance if there is sufficient acceptance of EVs. But I note two significant comments in your post:

1. You are betting that Tesla will succeed. Since you are pinning your purchase of a Model S on the stock, I get the impression you may be gambling with money you cannot afford to lose. This is never a good idea. I think maybe you do not understand the degree of risk here. I own some shares of Tesla, but in my case it's a token investment, a tiny blip in my portfolio.

2. You state that "Once the Model S takes off, there will be no stopping them." While the success of the Model S will be a significant milestone and a great boost to the company, there is no guarantee that competition from bigger companies entering the EV market will not put Tesla out of business. I think Tesla will make it, but there is a very real possibility that I'm wrong. There are no sure things.

In my opinion it is unwise to invest a significant part of your savings in any one company, especially when your strategy is based on the prediction of a ten-fold increase in the value of its stock. Such phenomenal success is rare.

 

[dsm363]

I agree with daniel. For anyone depending on Tesla stock going up in order to buy a Model S, you could end up with no car and a loss on the stock. If you can cash out now with the stock above 30, that would probably be wise. You can always take out a car loan to close the gap in purchase price or put the money aside in a more conservative fund until you save enough to buy the car.

 

[Robert.Boston]

It's nice to see TSLA above $30 again, and putting in a nice start to the day. I'm certainly not planning on closing out my position, but it does offer an off-ramp to those with less risk tolerance. I have no doubt that TSLA is going to remain a highly volatile stock for the next 24 months.

 

[NigelM]

There's no law against investing by professional analysts. Only against using information not available to the public.

And every professional analyst has information not available to the public.

 

[ckessel]

For anyone depending on Tesla stock going up in order to buy a Model S, you could end up with no car and a loss on the stock.

Well, I'm not depending on it exactly. If Tesla crashes badly then I'm probably not able to buy, but if Tesla crashes badly then there are quite probably some significant reasons I wouldn't want to buy anyway.