Are you also investing in Tesla?

[NigelM]

Conspiracy theories aside - the govt should do something to prevent $5 from happening.

Almost impossible for the govt to do anything in the short/medium term in a free market economy. Global factors play a much larger role in determining price and even if, god forbid, we opened up all our national parks to oil drilling the time-lag would still be years.

However, promote EV's and support companies like Tesla and as demand for oil drops so will the price.....

 

[AnOutsider]

However, promote EV's and support companies like Tesla and as demand for oil drops so will the price.....

Haha, the higher gas goes, the better EVs look. The more EVs around, the lower gas goes.

 

[NigelM]

Haha, the higher gas goes, the better EVs look. The more EVs around, the lower gas goes.

 

[Citizen-T]

Their view is that once the wealthy EV enthusiasts have bought, then the company is going to come to a screeching halt, wrt sales.

I have a thesis that every Model S that makes it into the wild will create some number of new buyers that weren't there before.

Think about it, Roadster owners are always saying that they get stopped all the time and people ask about the car. I mean, you are a walking, talking, driving advertisement for Tesla. How many of those people will go home and look up the car? How many of your friends and family will ride in it a couple times, and be impressed, and add it to their shopping list? They won't all buy it, but of the, let's say 25 people that you rub elbows with in the car (and I don't know if that is a reasonable number or not), what if one of them does? If every Model S sold can create 1 new buyer, then 20,000 units a year is sustainable. But what if it creates 2? Well, then maybe we've just created the market for the Model X. What if it creates more? Then we have a serious lack of supply problem.

Yeah, right now if you ask people if they would consider buying an EV, they will likely say no, but I'm sure if you asked people in the early days of flight fly in an airplane, they would have said no too. But, once you know someone that has an EV, and realize that they've never been trapped on the side of the road, and experience the performance, and see for yourself how good they can look, etc. etc...then maybe it at least makes it onto your list.

I just don't know what the number is. How many new potential customers will each Model S create? I feel like it is a number greater than 1, but less than 5. This is why I'm not concerned with the pool of buyers running dry in 2014. Even given that the Model X will double the number of customers we need to find.

 

[EVNow]

Almost impossible for the govt to do anything in the short/medium term in a free market economy. Global factors play a much larger role in determining price and even if, god forbid, we opened up all our national parks to oil drilling the time-lag would still be years.

Oil isn't a "free market". Ofcourse "should do" doesn't mean they will or even they can do something. I'm just saying there is an over-riding govt interest in keeping gas prices low.

However, promote EV's and support companies like Tesla and as demand for oil drops so will the price.....

Zero chances of that. More than 10 million first time car owners are buying cars every year in China/India.

 

[ckessel]

Wonder if Elon's (apparent) impending divorce will have any stock impact. Whatever happened, it'd be a short lived impact I'd imagine.

 

[JRP3]

He's getting divorced again?

 

[ckessel]

He's getting divorced again?

Apparently so.

 

[Larry Chanin]

And, to state the obvious, gas needs to hit $5 too for EVs to take off - Big Oil and the Govt. will try to do whatever they can to prevent that from happening so, there's one reason for the pessimism.

This morning CNN reported that some analysts are predicting $5 gasoline in California by Memorial Day. They also stated that the average American car is 10.8 years old.

Larry

 

[engle]

He's getting divorced again?

Yes, according to Forbes who reported on his tweets:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/hannahelliott/2012/01/18/elon-musk-to-divorce-wife-talulah-riley/

 

[AnOutsider]

That man just doesn't have the whole "timing" thing down, does he?

 

[JRP3]

This morning CNN reported that some analysts are predicting $5 gasoline in California by Memorial Day.

Larry

I think gas prices are being held artificially low by OPEC because of real fears that we will push harder for alternatives if prices rise back up. A Saudi prince basically said as much. At some point prices will have to rise up again.

 

[Larry Chanin]

Almost impossible for the govt to do anything in the short/medium term in a free market economy. Global factors play a much larger role in determining price and even if, god forbid, we opened up all our national parks to oil drilling the time-lag would still be years.

However, promote EV's and support companies like Tesla and as demand for oil drops so will the price.....

Hi Nigel,

I agree, but tax subsidies for oil companies can artificially depress gas prices, IF the companies decide to pass on some of those savings. Judging from the size of their profits, and executive compensation, I doubt if much is being passed on to the consumers.

Larry

 

[Norbert]

Zero chances of that. More than 10 million first time car owners are buying cars every year in China/India.

I'm not sure what your point is. One of the goals of developing EV market share is in fact to replace oil, and sooner or later there will be a noticeable effect on the oil price. And a not so noticeable, but existing relative effect for every EV sold instead of an ICE, whether that is in China or in the US.

We already heard that the progress of EVs triggers some oil princes (or whatever the title) to think in terms of keeping the oil price low in order to avoid encouraging alternative technology. So who knows, maybe without this potential competition from electricity, perhaps oil prices would already have been driven up to $4 or $5...

I'm kind of with Nigel on this one, nothing the government can do (such as ruining our landscape) will do more than postpone the problem, except for alternatives to oil such as EVs, which will actually *solve* the problem for good, together with renewable energy.

 

[Mycroft]

Emerging markets like India and China are growing far faster than the pace of EV takeup. True, there's the tiniest relief of upward price pressure with some EV sales, but the numbers aren't even a rounding error.

Unfortunately, it's not just gas prices for personal vehicles that are impacted. Also fuel oil prices are going to be hit very hard. I feel for all the folks who have to heat their homes with fuel oil. We're going to be seeing inflation as well in the near future, with the increasing cost of transportation added to the increase in the money supply from the Fed.

 

[JRod0802]

Yeah, right now if you ask people if they would consider buying an EV, they will likely say no, but I'm sure if you asked people in the early days of flight fly in an airplane, they would have said no too. But, once you know someone that has an EV, and realize that they've never been trapped on the side of the road, and experience the performance, and see for yourself how good they can look, etc. etc...then maybe it at least makes it onto your list.

I also think that consumers don't always know what they want. If you asked someone three years ago if they wanted a huge iPhone that isn't a phone and doesn't fit in your pocket, they'd probably laugh at you. Then they'd try out the iPad and go "oh yeah, that is pretty cool, I think I do want this". The same might very well be true of EVs.

 

[Fr23shjive]

I also think that consumers don't always know what they want. If you asked someone three years ago if they wanted a huge iPhone that isn't a phone and doesn't fit in your pocket, they'd probably laugh at you. Then they'd try out the iPad and go "oh yeah, that is pretty cool, I think I do want this". The same might very well be true of EVs.

To quote Henry Ford "If I’d asked my customers what they wanted, they’d have said a faster horse".

People don't know what they want. In their minds EVs are slow, ugly golf carts that cant travel more than 100 miles. Once they start to learn about the advantages EVs offer they'll be in line trying to get theirs too. That's why I dont really trust these polls where they say people arent ready for EVs. People dont even know what they're capable of.

 

[Norbert]

I think gas prices are being held artificially low by OPEC because of real fears that we will push harder for alternatives if prices rise back up. A Saudi prince basically said as much. At some point prices will have to rise up again.

You beat me to it on this one... sometimes I'm a bit offline between reading and posting...

 

[WhiteKnight]

I have a thesis that every Model S that makes it into the wild will create some number of new buyers that weren't there before.

Think about it, Roadster owners are always saying that they get stopped all the time and people ask about the car. I mean, you are a walking, talking, driving advertisement for Tesla. How many of those people will go home and look up the car? How many of your friends and family will ride in it a couple times, and be impressed, and add it to their shopping list? They won't all buy it, but of the, let's say 25 people that you rub elbows with in the car (and I don't know if that is a reasonable number or not), what if one of them does? If every Model S sold can create 1 new buyer, then 20,000 units a year is sustainable. But what if it creates 2? Well, then maybe we've just created the market for the Model X. What if it creates more? Then we have a serious lack of supply problem.

Yeah, right now if you ask people if they would consider buying an EV, they will likely say no, but I'm sure if you asked people in the early days of flight fly in an airplane, they would have said no too. But, once you know someone that has an EV, and realize that they've never been trapped on the side of the road, and experience the performance, and see for yourself how good they can look, etc. etc...then maybe it at least makes it onto your list.

I just don't know what the number is. How many new potential customers will each Model S create? I feel like it is a number greater than 1, but less than 5. This is why I'm not concerned with the pool of buyers running dry in 2014. Even given that the Model X will double the number of customers we need to find.

Your thesis has been proven by Tesla to be correct. I talked with Alex, the manager of Tesla's Santana Row store, and he said they see a clustering phenomenon where once someone buys a Tesla in a particular area, then they will begin to see new customers popping up in the same general area. They might not even know each other, but they see the car on the road, they do a little research and then get hooked. I would expect the same phenomenon for the Model S but even stronger.

I would bet the growth rate is greater than 2 new buyers for every 1 owner.

 

[smorgasbord]

Then they'd try out the iPad and go "oh yeah, that is pretty cool, I think I do want this".

And, let's not forget that even when everyone knew what iPad 1 was going to be, many analysts doubted its eventual success. "Just a big iPod Touch" was a common refrain. Actually using the thing and seeing others use it was the revelation to many. So, we should not get discouraged that even though everyone knows what Model S is going to be and doubt its success. I believe that once people see these things in action, sales will multiply.

Model S owners will quickly get to know the meaning of "Tesla Time." (Go ask a Roadster owner if you don't know what that is)