no facts, just fantasies. elon's philosophies (open patents, solving worlds problems) do not seem to align very well within the Apple philosophy. I say zero chance of this happening. They might work together, but Tesla likely will work with Apple and Google in the future app/nav/etc game.
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no facts, just fantasies. elon's philosophies (open patents, solving worlds problems) do not seem to align very well within the Apple philosophy. I say zero chance of this happening. They might work together, but Tesla likely will work with Apple and Google in the future app/nav/etc game.
I think instead it would accelerate Tesla's mission of ICE to EV market conversion.
I do see this as a multi year event even if it happens, but I think it's a mistake to position Apple products and markets where they have been or where they currently are. The breadth of vision, scope, manufacturing, design and ability is something many comments are under-appreciating imo.
I won't bother to extract and recontextualize pertanent parts, but suggest a full read and all the way to the end of :
Jonathan Ive and the Future of Apple - The New Yorker
jhm
Well-Known Member
I'm so tired of this meme. Why does this brain nettle stick so stubbornly in people's heads?
I for one do not want to sell to Apple, even at $600/share. Beside Apple can already use Tesla's patents for free. If Apple is such a great technology company, that should be enough. Apple would want to pay $75B for the book value of Tesla? Why would they need the Tesla brand, considering they've already got a perfectly good brand? Do they want their former employees back that badly? Are they looking to bring Musk on as CEO of Apple? Why not just buy Oldsmobile from GM? This makes no sense to me.
The don't have them yet. The next generation of NCM is expected in the 2017/2018 timeframe - the kind of cells that are destined for the Bolt and Leaf 2.0. Right now, with the current generation of NCM battery chemistry, Nissan/AESC and GM/LG/CompactPower plants in the U.S are underutilized. With the next generation of NCM chemistry, due in 2017/2018, it is expected that the vehicles using those products (Bolt, Leaf 2) will be far more attractive and then the plants won't be able to build enough cells to keep up with a strong demand. But in GWh terms, one has to adjust for the change in battery chemistry.
Well, there are a couple of reasons to acquire Tesla in 2016/2017 that do make sense IMO. First, with Tesla's gigafactory Apple could instantly champion battery world market which Samsung and LG, direct competitors to Apple, are already doing good business in. By acquiring Tesla, Apple would enter residential energy storage markets, too. Furthermore, Tesla has a compelling and user-friendly charging network around the world which future Apple cars could use. That was a lot of work for Tesla to get the permissions, find the right spots, etc. . Tesla also has the stores and service centers built up with competent and motivated staff which Apple would need to build up themselves otherwise. Tesla has also the experience to sell and roll-out EVs (dealing with regulations, fleet customers, etc.) in a considerable amount of world markets which Apple would have to build up themselves, too. So, in these terms, time is the crucial factor. Through an acquisition of Tesla, Apple would simply buy time, to conquer EV markets around the world in a short time span, like a sudden earthquake and tsunami. Otherwise, the necessariy incremental steps in Apple EV development would give the old players (GM, Daimler, BMW, VW, Toyota) time to adapt.
Now, why would Tesla sell? I think it comes down to cash. Tesla is the fastest growing automobile company in the world but I guess it will need a lot more cash to keep up the pace of that growth: Think European Factory for Model 3, Think Chinese Factory for Model 3, Think GF 2, what have you. They need capital to keep up this fast growth. Apple is able to deliver exactly that. To sum up, having the ultimate goal of Tesla in mind, namely to accelerate the advent of electric vehicles, Apple acquiring Tesla in 2016/2017 is a superb idea IMHO.
I agree that the only company that could buy TM is Apple. I disagree with some doubters here though, in that I think that Apple does benefit hugely from buying TM. They have conquered mobile. They need to defend from competitors, but they can be said to own the phone and tablet markets. They do OK in laptops and PC's, markets which are not growing as fast anyway. They are messing with TV's, which is a logical place for them but hard to get just right. What's next? wearables, home and auto.
Wearables are a ways off and may not ever really happen. Google Glass shows that the first rule of wearables is that it must not look dorky. The second rule of wearables is that it must not look dorky. Rules 3-27 are the same. The current defacto model of a powerful computer in your pocket with maybe body networked peripherals like a watch or bluethooth earphone set might actually look a lot like what the end game works out to be.
Home I think they should get into. Google is making a play with Nest, and I presume they will be rolling out everything from security to lighting control in 2 years. Apple could probably do this even better.
Auto... Cars ARE just computers on wheels. Go shopping for an ICE car next weekend. Ask yourself what you are really shopping for. 4 wheels. Some loud thing under the hood. styling and category (suv, sedan etc). After that it is the dashboard stack, controls screen. You will spend more time discussing what the bluetooth connectivity is like and the wireless service includes than anything about the seat heaters or anything. (source: bought my wife a car 3 years ago). The brilliance of the Model S is that it is way ahead on this trend. The Model S was designed from the ground up to be a cell phone on wheels. Current cars are sort of like Blackberries on wheels, but you will see the trend continuing toward where the Model S is now.
I tend to believe the rumors that Apple is working on a Car or a car ecosystem. They know this market is coming. There will be huge first mover advantages. Once an incumbent is in place it will be really hard for a second to get in. They benefit because they really know design and software. It would be very hard for them to repeat what TM has done over the last few years, and would cost nearly as much as buying them. TM would benefit because, let's face it, while the unix based OS is fine, it is not great and is dog slow. Apple brings fast Arm processors and software infrastructure. TM brings factories and manufacturing.
If Apple really wanted to make a slick home infrastructure too, I think it includes solar power generation and storage, slickly integrated with climate control, security, lighting. Synergy there too.
TM gets access to cash for further building. TM's plans for expansion have always included some question marks on how to fund multiple factories. (Newb said it first)
I am fine with TM going alone, but I see the advantages in a merger!
Wearables are a ways off and may not ever really happen. Google Glass shows that the first rule of wearables is that it must not look dorky. The second rule of wearables is that it must not look dorky. Rules 3-27 are the same. The current defacto model of a powerful computer in your pocket with maybe body networked peripherals like a watch or bluethooth earphone set might actually look a lot like what the end game works out to be.
Home I think they should get into. Google is making a play with Nest, and I presume they will be rolling out everything from security to lighting control in 2 years. Apple could probably do this even better.
Auto... Cars ARE just computers on wheels. Go shopping for an ICE car next weekend. Ask yourself what you are really shopping for. 4 wheels. Some loud thing under the hood. styling and category (suv, sedan etc). After that it is the dashboard stack, controls screen. You will spend more time discussing what the bluetooth connectivity is like and the wireless service includes than anything about the seat heaters or anything. (source: bought my wife a car 3 years ago). The brilliance of the Model S is that it is way ahead on this trend. The Model S was designed from the ground up to be a cell phone on wheels. Current cars are sort of like Blackberries on wheels, but you will see the trend continuing toward where the Model S is now.
I tend to believe the rumors that Apple is working on a Car or a car ecosystem. They know this market is coming. There will be huge first mover advantages. Once an incumbent is in place it will be really hard for a second to get in. They benefit because they really know design and software. It would be very hard for them to repeat what TM has done over the last few years, and would cost nearly as much as buying them. TM would benefit because, let's face it, while the unix based OS is fine, it is not great and is dog slow. Apple brings fast Arm processors and software infrastructure. TM brings factories and manufacturing.
If Apple really wanted to make a slick home infrastructure too, I think it includes solar power generation and storage, slickly integrated with climate control, security, lighting. Synergy there too.
TM gets access to cash for further building. TM's plans for expansion have always included some question marks on how to fund multiple factories. (Newb said it first)
I am fine with TM going alone, but I see the advantages in a merger!
Well, IMO, if Tesla is on track to get out Model 3 in 2017, they're on track to accomplish the mission further down the road without Elon at the rudder. I think Elon would eventually get bored with the main task at hand for Tesla from 2017 onwards, namely scaling up business as fast as possible. This is not Elon. He'll be thinking about next steps, e.g. disrupting long-range transport markets (hyperloop, electric airplanes...).
Some comments from a tech centric / startup forum: Apple will buy Tesla for $75b in 18 months | Hacker News
jhm
Well-Known Member
Ok, I wish them all well with that. I do think this will be really key to building demand for these cars. I'm just eager to see it happens sooner.
I'm not exactly sure why you say to adjust for change in battery chemistry. I am thinking in terms of output, the GWh sold, not nameplate capacity. Nameplate capacity is only interesting when you think they migh run out of floorspace and will need to open new plants.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Ok, if the arguement for Apple to acquire Tesla is that Tesla would be able to grow faster with all the cash Apple could poor into it, then this is simply an argument for Tesla to raise more capital an burn cash faster. Plenty of bond investors are willing to give Tesla cash on favorable terms. But if the cash comes from Apple in the form of ownership, then Apple's management will want not just to supply capital but to tell Musk or who ever runs the Tesla subsidiary of Apple how to run the business. I actually think caution from upper management and board would lead to slower more cautious growth for Tesla, not faster growth. I pretty much think Musk would be out of the picture entirely. He would pocket $25B or so and never look back.
That would really make me sad. Part of Tesla's appeal the fact that is a smaller, nimble company with high energy and innovative spirit. That is why they have been able to recruit top talent from several very successful high growth companies in different industries.
On second thought... Steve Carell: NO GOD! NO GOD, PLEASE NO, NO, NO, NOOOOO (HD) - YouTube
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If Apple sees value in EVs and find a compelling solution for masses, they are fully capable to own (or will acquire) technology and resources. They just won't buy Tesla! Apple is very good at supply chain and understands sources well. Most suppliers want to work with Apple even if that means less margins and tight quality control as it is just too lucrative.
I expect Apple to build GF size of factory even faster if they play the EV game. I would not expect them to announce GF a few years in advance as Tesla did. Knowing their product launches, I would expect Apple to just announce a working car a year in advance and expected release date. The GF and what not would happen silently in the background. Apple did consider building a car (as per Job's autobiography), but recent advances specially the tech of Model S must have made Apple revisit the plans.
Another reason Apple may consider EVs is, it is just a huge potential market ready for disruption. And, it makes a lot of sense at over 700B valuation to find a $1.5T market. A newcomer does not need to have deep knowledge on ICE specifics, but just as Tesla has shown, tech & software is eating more than half of the car and that's where the value proposition will be. It is a lot simpler to build an EV than to build an ICE. Remember the days when one changed silencer of a car to change sound, people will eventually talk about Apps in cars to showoff.
Tesla has other reasons to announce GF in advance as they build reputation and find a working partner while showing they have enough capital (or can raise capital) and tech know-how to build products. Apple's entry will not only mark the acceptance of EVs for masses, it will trigger all other car manufacturers to join EV band quickly or get killed earlier than most expected.
I expect Apple to build GF size of factory even faster if they play the EV game. I would not expect them to announce GF a few years in advance as Tesla did. Knowing their product launches, I would expect Apple to just announce a working car a year in advance and expected release date. The GF and what not would happen silently in the background. Apple did consider building a car (as per Job's autobiography), but recent advances specially the tech of Model S must have made Apple revisit the plans.
Another reason Apple may consider EVs is, it is just a huge potential market ready for disruption. And, it makes a lot of sense at over 700B valuation to find a $1.5T market. A newcomer does not need to have deep knowledge on ICE specifics, but just as Tesla has shown, tech & software is eating more than half of the car and that's where the value proposition will be. It is a lot simpler to build an EV than to build an ICE. Remember the days when one changed silencer of a car to change sound, people will eventually talk about Apps in cars to showoff.
Tesla has other reasons to announce GF in advance as they build reputation and find a working partner while showing they have enough capital (or can raise capital) and tech know-how to build products. Apple's entry will not only mark the acceptance of EVs for masses, it will trigger all other car manufacturers to join EV band quickly or get killed earlier than most expected.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
He only reason why I think there is some merit is because Elon managed to poach several top talent from Apple without repercussion. If I understand Tim Cook's way of doing business from following the GTAT fiasco, this cannot happen without his consent.
But The $75b price tag need to be revised upwards a bit as recent IPO and acquisition in startup suggest. And most of the transaction will be in stock to soften the blow to apple's USA operating cash. I don't know if they can use foreign cash to do this (Stealthy repatriation?), but the current cash hoard is not enough.
I think the telltale sign that this is about to happen is if apple raises cash from debt in the tunes if 10B+ , more than its operating needs. Since it has not happened, It is not anything short term.
But The $75b price tag need to be revised upwards a bit as recent IPO and acquisition in startup suggest. And most of the transaction will be in stock to soften the blow to apple's USA operating cash. I don't know if they can use foreign cash to do this (Stealthy repatriation?), but the current cash hoard is not enough.
I think the telltale sign that this is about to happen is if apple raises cash from debt in the tunes if 10B+ , more than its operating needs. Since it has not happened, It is not anything short term.
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He probably doesn't want to get in trouble again. Apple, Google settle U.S. poaching lawsuit for $415 million
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
A year ago that possibility was all over the Internet. Then it died down. Now it's back. Just wait a week and it will go away again.
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