Advice Needed: To sell or not? Leaving country for 14 months

[jbcarioca]

This is a hard decision but I tend to agree with the 'sell' crowd. I have kept a couple cars under those circumstances. One was a BMW Z1 the other a Morgan +8. Both appreciated. Somehow I don't think the P85D, much as I love mine, will do the same.

 

[Qbenjamin]

Depreciating asset that isn't increasing in price over time, I'd sell it now. As others have already pointed out, the value on the S may slightly drop once the 3 hits the market. Not to say that anyone looking for a Tesla would choose the 3 over the S, but now there will truly be a market for someone on a $35K budget looking for a luxury electric sedan.

 

[ggr]

I had a commercial company store a car along with our furniture and personal stuff for a year while I was on an overseas assignment. It was not a good experience. I later found out that they disconnected the odometer cable and just drove it around. If you can't lend it to a friend, definitely sell it.

 

[ddimit]

I would keep it, You have already taken the biggest depreciation hit in the 1st year. You can reduce your insurance to just covering comp losses while in storage. You have a car that has unlimited supercharging, and if you buy new when you get back you going to be in the depreciation cycle again.

It boils down to how cheap the loan rate was. What will loan rates be when you get back. If its been like my 15, 85D its a solid no issue car. I might be biased but the non P versions of the 85D have probably been one of the most reliable ones built.

 

[whitex]

I had a commercial company store a car along with our furniture and personal stuff for a year while I was on an overseas assignment. It was not a good experience. I later found out that they disconnected the odometer cable and just drove it around. If you can't lend it to a friend, definitely sell it.

I assume you reported that (messing with an odometer is actually a crime in most states) and charges were filed. Then, after the criminal case was over, you have a surefire case against the commercial company. A bit of hassle, but could be a nice payday.

 

[whitex]

Depreciating asset that isn't increasing in price over time, I'd sell it now. As others have already pointed out, the value on the S may slightly drop once the 3 hits the market. Not to say that anyone looking for a Tesla would choose the 3 over the S, but now there will truly be a market for someone on a $35K budget looking for a luxury electric sedan.

The problem is whether the depreciation, storage cost and saved interest will offset the cost (and maybe risk) of selling and then finding and buying the same item back. If you were to sell your 1 year old car today, and then buy it back the next day, there would be a cost involved (if you do it through Tesla CPO, $10K-$15K, possibly more if the new loan will be at higher interest (as used car loans usually are). Typically cars depreciate most of the 2 year depreciation as soon as you drive them off the lot, so if you have a 1 year old car, the 2nd year is not going to depreciate much more. This typically is drop caused by the difference between cost and sale price. So if the car sells for $100K but costs Tesla $70K to make, as a trade-in it will not be worth more than $70K in pristine condition with 0 miles on it, which will probably come after 2 years. Same applies to the dealership model, except the trade-in ceiling is not the manufacturer cost but dealer cost.

 

[henderrj]

@goldenbyte
I don't think it's as straightforward as some people here think. A lot of people here suggest that once Model 3 is available nobody will be buying a Model S, which is not true (just because there is a 3 series BMW doesn't mean people don't buy 5 or 7 series ). I would be pragmatic and do the math.

The cost of keeping it is:
1. Storage insurance (you have to tell the insurance company the car will not be registered to be on the road)
2. Interest on the loan (not the whole payment, just interest)
3. Cost of storage (may be free if you are leaving an empty garage anyways)
4. Opportunity cost on any money you could get back (interest you could make on what you sell the car for minus the amount you owe today)

Cost of selling it is how much will you have to pay in 14 months to get back into a similar car. For this calculation, assume buying the very same car, upgrading to new is always extra. So, how much would it cost you to buy the exact same year, model, options, mileage in 14 months (find a similar car as yours that it 14 months older - how much less is it than yours). Subtract how much you can get for your car today (net after any sale costs), and you have your cost of selling and buying it again.

Without doing the numbers it's hard to tell which one is more beneficial. Also, there is always some risk as you are predicting future car value, which always has some margin of error.

If it was a longer period, I would think the difference would be greater. With only 14 months, hard to tell. As a point of reference, I sold my 2013 MS two years ago for 61K, a year later comparable cars sold for $50, so $11K depreciation in a year (another $10K depraciation for the year after that). So in your case, the depreciation may be ballpark $12K (discounting the "Model 3 will be the Model S killer" theories). That could be about the hit you would take by selling and buying the same car again (sale_price - trade_in_value).

Important note, if you were planning to upgrade to a new Tesla in 14 months anyways, then by all means, sell the one you have today rather than wait to trade it in 14 months from now.

This is a great way to look at it with one more addition to the cost to sell and buy. Tax and Licensing. In Washington, really surprised whiteX missed it, the sales tax on a new car can easily exceed 5,000, probably be closer to 8 for this car. Still probably in the sell it and buy another camp but, that'll make it close if you live up here!

 

[whitex]

This is a great way to look at it with one more addition to the cost to sell and buy. Tax and Licensing. In Washington, really surprised whiteX missed it, the sales tax on a new car can easily exceed 5,000, probably be closer to 8 for this car. Still probably in the sell it and buy another camp but, that'll make it close if you live up here!

No kidding, you are right. Completely missed this rather large cost of selling and buying it or even a brand new car in the future - lost trade-in sales tax credit.

 

[NeverFollow]

I later found out that they disconnected the odometer cable and just drove it around.

How did you noticed it? Did you have a GPS tracker?