40kwh Model S canceled

[Zythryn]

It only makes sense. With 80% charging capacity that would leave the 40kwh on the same level as the Nissan Leaf.

I also don't see how that works. Even if you are talking about only range and not performance, longevity, etc, look at it. 160 mile 'perfect 55mph conditions', probably a 140 mile EPA range. Standard charge would be about 125.
100% charge on a Leaf is 73 (although I think that is now going to be 84?).

50% more is on the same level?

 

[jdevo2004]

Since the 40kwh version is just a software limited full 60kwh car which we know has supercharging built in, supercharging the 40kwh model should be completely feasible. I wonder if Tesla will allow the 40kwh owners to upgrade to supercharging for $2000.

 

[dsm363]

Since the 40kwh version is just a software limited full 60kwh car which we know has supercharging built in, supercharging the 40kwh model should be completely feasible. I wonder if Tesla will allow the 40kwh owners to upgrade to supercharging for $2000.

Tesla Model S Sales Exceed Target | Press Releases | Tesla Motors

They will but it sounds like if you do it after production, they will change $2,500 instead of $2,000 although it is still a software update.

 

[aaron0k]

I'm a bit floored by this news. I am a "4 percenter".

I've been holding a reservation for quite some time; when it came time to commit in January due to the price increase.. I had wanted the 60k w/SC, however the math didn't work. I let the dream fade, but kept the reservation… 'maybe next year'.

In March, I got the 'second chance' email... the ability to commit at 2012 pricing. I played with Excel for days, and decided I couldn’t pass on the opportunity; "I'll eat Ramen for the next 5 years and go for the 60!"

However, in the final hour in the deadline to sign, I panicked .. the math made me do it... changed it to a 40k - I could hear the disappointment in my advisers tone. I told myself I would just use it for my 90 mile commute. I'll visit the parents with the leased Volt.

I've been living with 40k range anxiety since then. Would the 40k even make my 90 mile RT commute? What would the EPA numbers look like? What if I need to pick up something... in the middle of winter? I'm stuck with the 40k! No way to upgrade. Did I make a huge mistake?

The news alleviates all that. While I expect they'll somehow calculate the range to be the same as it would be under the 40k, at least I now have OPTIONS... and I can take a breath.

Luck was on my side, and I do feel fortunate. However, I also feel it's also due to a great company doing the right thing, which made me comfortable making this decision in the first place.

For me the Model S is not a car. It's a statement.

Thank you Tesla.

 

[dsm363]

Welcome aaron0k! I agree, I really think this is the best of both worlds. People going for the 40 kWh version don't have to feel trapped if they underestimated the range they need. They have options now.

 

[yobigd20]

Am I the only one that interpreted their press statement as "the 40kWh car is *not canceled*, just the 40kWh battery pack" meaning that anyone can still purchase the 40kWh today, tomorrow, next week, next year, etc. it's just that the battery pack your getting is the 60 that is software limited to 40. From the sound of all the above posts it makes it seem like everyone thinks that nobody can purchase a "software limited 60 to 40kWh" anymore and this option is only given to those who already reserved. That's not the way I'm reading their announcement....to me it seems the 40kWh will always be available for purchase.

 

[Banahogg]

Looks like design studio was just updated with "No longer available" text under the 40 kWh, which I think answers the forward availability question.

 

[gregincal]

I think this mentality that "nobody will risk their $50k car" mentality is kind of funny given the huge number of companies out there that tune and modify Porsches, BMW Ms, and AMGs (and to a lesser extent GT-Rs - ever seen an AMS Alpha 12?). These are cars that are often priced over $80k and yet the owners still have them tuned and modified to squeak out a little more performance. It wouldn't surprise me to see some of the tuner shops start developing ways to interface with the model S, especially if we find out that the cars can be modified to P85 levels of performance with (handwaving here) simple software modifications.

Yes, but that's for money-no-object people, who aren't buying a 40kWh car to begin with. The only reason to buy the 40kWh is to save money, and buying one and then hacking to a 60 to save 10K but lose the warranty doesn't really seem like something one would do. However, when the cars are out of warranty anyway and you're talking about the enthusiast restoration crowd, who knows.

 

[yobigd20]

Looks like design studio was just updated with "No longer available" text under the 40 kWh, which I think answers the forward availability question.

lol ok then. Never mind haha

 

[JRP3]

Good point. If you get one of these 40 kWh cars with the 60 kWh battery there would be absolutely no reason not to do a "RANGE CHARGE" every day since it isn't actually a full charge for the 60 kWh battery pack.

We don't know that. As I said earlier in the thread I think the most logical thing for Tesla to do would be to limit use of the bottom portion of the pack. That means a Range charge is still fully charging the pack, which should be avoided. If I'm right what this does mean is you can routinely drive the pack closer to "zero" and not have any worries about cell wear. Of course you still might have to worry about miscalculating your range and getting stuck on the side of the road if you push it.

 

[gregincal]

Looks like design studio was just updated with "No longer available" text under the 40 kWh, which I think answers the forward availability question.

Yeah, it's makes for a funny experience currently. You have a "base price" but can't actually order it. I assume they will update it again after a while to remove the 40 altogether and increase the base price.

 

[jskenney]

Looks like design studio was just updated with "No longer available" text under the 40 kWh, which I think answers the forward availability question.

This is so depressing, I have been looking at the 40kwh version for some time now, but wanted to wait until I had ~20-25k to put down to keep the loan reasonable (less than 50k) with plans to order late summer. Time for a new plan...

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

this is a great deal for poor people like me. I was waiting for the 40kwh leasing program but now very tempted to buy the 40kwh as i can upgrade and no worries about the battery. I still haven't finalized my order i am going to wait till tomorrow to see tomorrows announcement. Who knows Gen III coming in December and Model X test drives start next week.

I'd assume you can't get this deal unless you have already finalized a 40kWh order.

- - - Updated - - -

As a 40kwh reservation holder, I am emotionally drained. This announcement does nothing for me. When is Tesla building my car? I am more ticked off about the communication process regarding the 40kwh owners. This is twice I have had to find out about the drama of 40kwh issues via press releases or quarterly statements. I would have expected news like this in the form of a targeted email. I will probably still hold out and wait for the car, but as for the other 18 people in my office who are watching this soap opera, they will most likley never be Tesla customers.

Tesla is legally required to make announcements of this nature in the manner they have done. A "targeted email" of the type you described would constitute material non-public information which could land folks in jail if they traded stock based on it. Regardless, there would likely be multi-million dollar fines for Tesla and an SEC investigation if they did as you suggest.

As to the rest, you are just incorrect. You are getting a much better car, sooner than you otherwise could have, at no additional cost to you. How do you not see this?

 

[pete8314]

Does anyone think that there was never really a true intent to launch the 40kWh car? That is was just a (very) elaborate PR exercise to tout an all-electric premium car below $50k?

I don't tend to think of Tesla as being sophisticated in terms of marketing (engineering - yes, marketing, hell no), but now I'm not so sure. Maybe they kept their options open, just in case 20% of us ordered the 40kWh, but their gamble paid off, and they're permanently shelving it?

I find it really interesting. Either way, I think Tesla has done the right thing, but I cannot help but to be slightly suspicious of the initial intent.

Given the new focus on Superchargers, I'm assuming Elon's big announcement tomorrow will be a much accelerated rollout of Superchargers.

 

[Grendal]

Does anyone think that there was never really a true intent to launch the 40kWh car? That is was just a (very) elaborate PR exercise to tout an all-electric premium car below $50k?

How could Tesla have predicted that only 4% of the people buying a car would choose the 40 kWh? That's completely absurd. This is a low cost solution to a problem created from that ridiculously low reservation number. You're essentially saying that Tesla pre-planned giving away 20 kWh worth of additional batteries for free so they could advertise a low starting price. Nope. It didn't happen.

Around 400 people are getting a gift of 20 kWh of batteries so Tesla doesn't have to do an entirely new round of costly EPA testing and production retooling. This is a very smart move for Tesla and I am very pleased with their solution. I just wish I was a 40 kWh reservation holder right now.

 

[vfx]

...
Around 400 people are getting a gift of 20 kWh of batteries ....

Wouldn't it be 800 people? Plus all the ones who frantically ordered today?

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Whoever reserved a 40 kWh model... lucky!!! :biggrin:

Upgrade to 60 kWh level performance. Lower initial cost, but upgrade +20 kWh and +Supercharger possible at later date without any need for components swap. If I had reserved a 40 kWh I would be dancing with glee right now!

 

[Grendal]

Wouldn't it be 800 people? Plus all the ones who frantically ordered today?

True. With 20K reservations then it would be 800. I was thinking in terms of current reservations and cutting out European reservationists since they never had access to a 40 kWh car in the first place. I don't think anyone was able to sneak in under the wire today. Tesla would have prevented it.

Though I will throw the question out there. Was anyone able to place a reservation on a 40 kWh car today? Please let us know if you did?

And I just quickly did the math. This bold move cost Tesla $4 million or more depending on what they actually buy their cells for. I calculated at $250 per kWh and 800 reservations.

 

[stopcrazypp]

We don't know that. As I said earlier in the thread I think the most logical thing for Tesla to do would be to limit use of the bottom portion of the pack. That means a Range charge is still fully charging the pack, which should be avoided. If I'm right what this does mean is you can routinely drive the pack closer to "zero" and not have any worries about cell wear. Of course you still might have to worry about miscalculating your range and getting stuck on the side of the road if you push it.

I don't know about that, there is little to no longevity advantage to avoiding low SOC (independent of shallower cycles which you would get either way). There is however a significant longevity advantage to avoiding higher SOCs (all the battery tests I have seen point to lower average SOC = longer life, although there's diminishing returns of course). The Roadster already limited SOC into a window of 2%-95% (3V to 4.15V vs 2.5V to 4.2V for 0%-100%) and balancing still works properly. So maybe balancing can still work out limiting some more of the top of the pack.

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/wiki/index.php?title=Battery_Capacity_Loss
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/bit-about-batteries

 

[SuperCoug]

They probably still have to get an EPA rating on the software limited version, wouldn't you think?

No, I think it's much more straight forward to simply allow for 40 kWh of consumption regardless of how far that happens to take you. You won't be guaranteed "X number of miles" but rather 40 kWh of battery (however far that takes you based on driving style and environmental factors).

- - - Updated - - -

This was predicted over a year ago by my alter ego:

Is the 40 kWh pack “dead on arrivalâ€￾? | Forums | Tesla Motors

Wow, that is one Hell of a good prediction! Well played sir.