It's weird to see Chanos on CNBC talking about shorting TSLA after watching him in the Enron docu on Netflix. He definitely comes off as desperate when talking about shorting TSLA.
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TrendTrader007
Active Member
The problem with success is that it's a poor teacher (as Bill Gates said) so just because he accurately called Enron doesn't mean he will be right on Tesla. History is full of examples of generals including Napoleon and Hitler who were fabulously right at times and subsequently met resounding defeat.
Ron Baron who is worth $2.2 B and on Forbes 400 is superlong TSLA while this other dude is not even on Forbes 400
So whose opinion is worth more?
I'm of course being facetious since your net worth is not directly equivalent to your opinions' worth
But as Sheldon Adelson said
If you're so smart how come you're not so rich
The flaw in your argument is the assumption that someone smart would seek money.
Maybe a smart person realizes what drives you to be rich also prevents you from other things life has to offer.
That said, I agree.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
It is not surprising that whatever Chanos had to say about Tesla does not make much sense - it does not have to, because Tesla, as we all know, is a **cult short stock**.
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I wouldn't be surprised if we see SA articles tomorrow with the claim, "It's September and Model 3 Producttion is only 15/day!!" Maybe it'll trigger the algos, maybe not.
Also, reading the comments in that Reddit post is... entertaining.
There's the possibility that Chanos is doing some "Merchants of Doubt" work. He has all the money he needs, he might just be helping some friends, or maybe he wouldn't agree with me that he has all the money he needs, lols.
Enlisting a billionaire investor famous for calling Enron (from what I gather in this discussion) to emphatically (and smugly as TT put it) talk down Tesla and TSLA in your "Merchants of Doubt" campaign, for cash or merely as a favor, would be a pretty attractive get for the likes of the Koch brothers. More than once I've heard Chanos say things I find it extremely improbable he actually believes, such as this shark jumping attempt to portray Tesla as a company with executives fleeing at basically an unheard of pace. I know that this is speculative, and someone is going to post the "razor" about not assuming malicious intent where ignorance could be explanatory... but I think the scenario I described is a material possibility, particularly given the scale of money at stake in transitioning from fossil fuels/ICE.
Barclay's Brian Johnson gets depressed about future opportunities for the company, slashes 2017 and 2018 EPS, and ... raises PT from $165 to $210. 
via Streetinsider.com:
via Streetinsider.com:
why do you need SA articles to tell you that's 75/wk when the goal is 5k/wk in 100 days?... they should be around 50/day or 250/wk right now... IF this reddit post is true... this is bad news... not good news.
but big deal right?... they're producing and that's all that matters?... well, no... the problem with the "S curve" is when the early stages lag... it affects the curve downstream.
15
30
60
120
240
50
100
200
400
800
see that... the "S curve" is exponentially affected by early misses.
what's wrong with that?... so this drags out a little bit... big deal right?
missing 5k/wk by EOY and coming in instead at 2k/wk means losses will be ridiculous, revenues will be dramatically missed and more debt or dilution will follow very quickly... if possible at the time... if not, bankruptcy... not being dramatic there... this is a moment where they must come through and not F it up... if it gets F'ed up... bankruptcy.
so, when people see 15/day in the early stages instead of 50/day... the likelihood of disaster is much greater.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
There's WAYYY too much emphasis on when exactly Tesla will achieve 1,000 per week, 2,000 per week etc. production rate.
This really doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things. I couldn't care less if we go to $500 per share tomorrow or 2018. Important thing is this company is worth a lot more than where it is regardless of how quickly production moves along the S curve.
The rest is noise. Just be ready for 10-20% swings either way, and sip your pina colada.
This really doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things. I couldn't care less if we go to $500 per share tomorrow or 2018. Important thing is this company is worth a lot more than where it is regardless of how quickly production moves along the S curve.
The rest is noise. Just be ready for 10-20% swings either way, and sip your pina colada.
50/day is the average across the entire month necessary to hit guidance. So 50/day in the 1st or 2nd week of volume production would be way ahead of schedule.
The bigger news is that volume production has started.
They have a 60 day payment terms setup right now.
Bankruptcy is an absolute ignorant projection here.
Also, 450/mo vs 1000/mo is only one digging off, it's also the middle of the month. If they did 35/day for the last 15 days off the month then things would actually be looking really good.
I don't think anyone investing in TSLA cares at all how much they miss the 5k/week by, we all know it was likely to miss. So did Tesla, that's why they said they'd the 17 plan, but only said they have full confidence in the 18 numbers.
Luckily, people like you will raise a hissy fit when Tesla only makes 3k/week to end the year and I'll be able to buy at a discount and make huge returns in a short time just like I did on model X and model S production "delays."
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
That would result in silence, which would be welcomed.
This guy is worth more than 15x what Jim Chanos is.
Didn't prevent him to say this :
Ameliorate
Member
And yet,
Day1 15/day -> 105/week
D2 30 -> 210
D3 60 -> 420
D4 120 -> 840
D5 240 -> 1680
D6 480 -> 3360
D7 960 -> 6720
D8 1920 -> 13440
D9 3840 -> 26880
D10 7680-> 54k
D11 15,360 -> 107k
D12 30,720 -> 215k
D13 61440-> 430k
D14 122,880 -> 860k
D15 245,760 -> 1.7m
Doubling every week for 15 weeks seems a little high
if you start with a 1/day, still end up at 54,000 after 15 weeks. All you had to do was fill in a few more numbers.... I wouldn't write off 5k just yet.ok... i need to clear this up... as was posted I did misrepresent the lists of numbers...
here's what i'm really suggesting... pretty much everyone is looking at y=2^x... because why not... Elon said "Exponential!"... and what I'm suggesting is y=2^(x/c) where c is the thing in question here... are we at 15/day right now because of a time shift?... or are we at 15/day because the curve... while STILL exponential... does not shape to 5k/wk at EOY 2017.
and in all seriousness... W(hy)TF should it?... that was an insane prediction anyway... and so is 10k/wk EOY 2018... and virtually any of Elon's predictions... we ALL know he exaggerates time and comes in way late... and it's not because he was a couple of weeks behind... it's because he uses the terms "Exponential" and greatly exagerates them and comes in exponentially worse than expected.
so if you really want to model this... do not assume every week is 2x the previous... and assume exponential degradation in the S-curve... as I suggested. because that more closely models reality.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Exponential doesn't necessarily mean double every some period. It just means the growth rate is constant.
Also - "exponential" is an approximation in this case. Think of the production ramp as more like a series of step changes as issues are resolved.
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