Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Status
Not open for further replies.
NTSB should be a non-event. Hopefully the algo-bots don't choke on the headlines.

Mr. Brown passed over a year ago, and the circumstances surrounding his death are well known and beat to death.

NTSB's job is to examine and name all contributing factors no matter how small. Autopilot was indeed partly to blame for his death, this finding should be entirely expected. NHTSA has already cleared Tesla of any legal responsibility or recall obligation connected to this incident.

The primary causes of his death were the truck's failure to yield, and Mr. Brown's failure to react to that failure to yield. This is undeniable fact. AP however, did contribute by its failure to react to the truck on Mr. Brown's behalf, as well as by breeding the complacency that had Mr. Brown trust the system too much. A small role, but a role nonetheless. NTSB should find AP to be partly to blame. Unfortunately the headlines don't make it clear that AP is contributing factor #17, and not the primary cause.
 
OK, I admit, this was a bit creepy.
I did not expect the SP to rise this high today. But clearly, for the past 7 trading day it was far below this magic line, and if the price is generally going up because the company is executing on the Model-3 plan, then it is not unexpected that it will get close to a rising trend every now and then. The fact that the price spends 7-10 times as much time away from the line than close to it, should point more towards coincidence than a rule.



As pointed out by others, there was some major catalyst news (China) and the macros also had a big recovery day from Friday's red, probably due to political background and less catastrophic effect of the Huricane on Florida than feared.
This combination trigered a strong opening, and then trend-algos piled on to amplify it. Once the stock broke out of the triangle, then TA traders also jumped in, since the break was on the upside.

So, in total, I am still not convinced that it is more than coincidence...
man... i almost just got whiplash this morning... and after all that "market activity"... it's somehow landed again... right on The Line Of Coincidence.
 
  • Funny
Reactions: ValueAnalyst
zsozso... look what you just did. you called the closing price... well, you were off by 69c... and I was off by $1.31... but as I mentioned this morning, I had already described the lower end of the channel it was trading in here:

2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

of which it bounced off Friday... and now we have:

View attachment 247105

now let me clear up one of the points you had made in your review regarding the changing of the downward trendline... I had accidentally dragged it prior to taking the screen shot but didn't realize it until I had taken the screen shot and put it into the post... but thought "meh... nobody should be concerned about that anyway" and had only left that lower trendline in to keep consistency in the chart.

so yes... that lower trendline is gone and replaced by the triangle... and before you go: "see... you just change stuff"... read that linked post above and you'll see that I was well aware of the triangle and had already been plotting it in other charts.

so, now that we're here... what do you think was the driver today?... macro?... news?... or technicals?

to me this is purely technical... but what do you think about the fact that you called the closing price in the stock today after a $20 6% run in the stock based on my numbers?

EDIT: what's important though is... the trendline it just snapped to is the SAME trendline I posted on July 7.

Now that you're long TSLA, are you going to draw one that goes perpendicularly UP?

I bet that'd get ya a lot of LOVE's ;)
 
man... i almost just got whiplash this morning... and after all that "market activity"... it's somehow landed again... right on The Line Of Coincidence.

OK, how about this theory:

The Magic upward pressure actually wants to achieve a steeper rising trend, roughly $2/trading-day as you observed and drew back in Dec-Jan and also for certain segments later on. However, macro troubles, short-manipulations and some panic-selling triggered by fake-news ;) keeps interrupting that trend from time-to-time generating some down-slope sections. The net result is that every once in a while we hit the Line of Coincidence at $1/day. :cool:

PS: of course, based on this theory, yesterday we just broke out of the down-pressure section, so now for the next few days it should resume the "natural $2/day" rising pattern. Today closing around 365-366
 
  • Love
Reactions: everman
OK, how about this theory:

The Magic upward pressure actually wants to achieve a steeper rising trend, roughly $2/trading-day as you observed and drew back in Dec-Jan and also for certain segments later on. However, macro troubles, short-manipulations and some panic-selling triggered by fake-news ;) keeps interrupting that trend from time-to-time generating some down-slope sections. The net result is that every once in a while we hit the Line of Coincidence at $1/day. :cool:

PS: of course, based on this theory, yesterday we just broke out of the down-pressure section, so now for the next few days it should resume the "natural $2/day" rising pattern. Today closing around 365-366

He's buttering you up for "we're too far off the line, SELL!" when TSLA goes perpendicular! Don't fall for it.
 
  • Helpful
Reactions: TMSE
964D5DF4-F4CE-418C-8B11-CF7B44269A74.jpeg


Totally OT, but just wanted to point-out that I’m doing my bit for the 17Q3 delivery numbers. On top of that it will smoke 007’s
 
He's buttering you up for "we're too far off the line, SELL!" when TSLA goes perpendicular! Don't fall for it.

I actually sold a good chunk yesterday @363, I set that sale-order up in the morning when I posted that "prediction", which I did not expect to execute. However, thanks to this morning's dip I managed to buy back those shares @361.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.