2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[TrendTrader007]

i was extremely lucky to have raised my position significantly between last week and at the open this morning
i will make one last buy at the open tomorrow and that's it
my thinking is that $364 is really a great buy. in fact anything below $400 is a great buy long term
in about 5 to 6 years TSLA will be 7 or 8 or 10 or even 16 times the current SP so to me personally it makes total sense to buy as much as i possibly can. i dunno if I'm one of the biggest individual shareholders of TSLA outside the company officers or not but i suspect that my individual position in TSLA far exceeds the bounds of rationality and prudence. however, i totally believe that buying TSLA now is similar to buying AAPL back in 2009 or NVDA in late 2015. in any case 7 to 10 X ROI seems reasonable in a relatively short time frame of 2 to 6 years
i am placing my bets accordingly
oh, and driving MX that Anne Boleyn and i bought less than a month ago is pure joy. scarcely a day goes by that onlookers don't want to check out the car. make no mistakes, Tesla brand is in the same category as AAPL
shorting this stock is financial mistake of epic proportions

 

[Ulmo]

You don't think the world's most populous country planning to ban gasoline cars may have been seen as bullish to the world's most popular all electric car manufacturer?

Really? They're counteracting what they did this week to my Bitcoins; fair . (Interestingly, the Bitcoins thing was more FUD, and the EV thing, while distantly related to Tesla because of stiff domestic competition over there, in my view could have a lot of efficiency of marketplace adoption synergies, such as market experience and supply chain experience. Although I'm surprised at the SP jump from just that, it seems at least plausible. It also seems like other news helped the SP other than just this EV push. Plus, Tesla does do sales over there.)

 

[D-egg-O]

listen... i really don't give two cents about what you think... but I plotted that line on 07/07 at an SP of $322... I "historically" stated many times that it's a $1/day slope... there's been 44 trading days since then... that's $366 today... the high today approached $364 after a $20 move... I've posted plots showing a $20 channel... and of the last 44 sessions... 26 of them traded within 1% of this line.

if that smacks you in the face as "fiction"... then that's simply evidence of your delusion.

OBVIOUSLY you don't care.

 

[Ulmo]

OBVIOUSLY you don't care.

I'm still a bull on TSLA long-term. I'm starting to worry about some existential issues (such as the lack of innovation, follow-through, and overall comprehensive product completeness and quality, possibly from a lack of interested, visionary, and involved leadership (and similar problems with sufficient workers of sufficient interest and abilities), including specifically the CEO which may or may not be fully vested and jumping ship soon), but if those come through OK, there's no reason for it not to double within less than a decade. I've finally decided to not look at every day as my strategy, but do have to sometimes look at it for balance issues, which of course is bad, but I'm working on building up my war chest enough to not have to look at that in the future.

I think my time horizon on my Bitcoin is double to quadruple that of my TSLA.

 

[dw4ngg]

i was extremely lucky to have raised my position significantly between last week and at the open this morning
i will make one last buy at the open tomorrow and that's it
my thinking is that $364 is really a great buy. in fact anything below $400 is a great buy long term
in about 5 to 6 years TSLA will be 7 or 8 or 10 or even 16 times the current SP so to me personally it makes total sense to buy as much as i possibly can. i dunno if I'm one of the biggest individual shareholders of TSLA outside the company officers or not but i suspect that my individual position in TSLA far exceeds the bounds of rationality and prudence. however, i totally believe that buying TSLA now is similar to buying AAPL back in 2009 or NVDA in late 2015. in any case 7 to 10 X ROI seems reasonable in a relatively short time frame of 2 to 6 years
i am placing my bets accordingly
oh, and driving MX that Anne Boleyn and i bought less than a month ago is pure joy. scarcely a day goes by that onlookers don't want to check out the car. make no mistakes, Tesla brand is in the same category as AAPL
shorting this stock is financial mistake of epic proportions

One last time my ..............

 

[myusername]

i was extremely lucky to have raised my position significantly between last week and at the open this morning
i will make one last buy at the open tomorrow and that's it
my thinking is that $364 is really a great buy. in fact anything below $400 is a great buy long term
in about 5 to 6 years TSLA will be 7 or 8 or 10 or even 16 times the current SP so to me personally it makes total sense to buy as much as i possibly can. i dunno if I'm one of the biggest individual shareholders of TSLA outside the company officers or not but i suspect that my individual position in TSLA far exceeds the bounds of rationality and prudence. however, i totally believe that buying TSLA now is similar to buying AAPL back in 2009 or NVDA in late 2015. in any case 7 to 10 X ROI seems reasonable in a relatively short time frame of 2 to 6 years
i am placing my bets accordingly
oh, and driving MX that Anne Boleyn and i bought less than a month ago is pure joy. scarcely a day goes by that onlookers don't want to check out the car. make no mistakes, Tesla brand is in the same category as AAPL
shorting this stock is financial mistake of epic proportions

are you mocking me?... or are you being serious?... didn't you see my rants this morning?

10X = $3600 or a $600b mkt cap... 2 years... 2019... best estimate is 750k/yr auto manufacturer... 1/15th the size of today's auto companies... with the highest mkt cap being Toyota at ~$150b.

i think you're mocking me... or else my banter was spot on.

 

[ZsoZso]

zsozso... look what you just did. you called the closing price... well, you were off by 69c... and I was off by $1.31... but as I mentioned this morning, I had already described the lower end of the channel it was trading in here:

OK, I admit, this was a bit creepy.
I did not expect the SP to rise this high today. But clearly, for the past 7 trading day it was far below this magic line, and if the price is generally going up because the company is executing on the Model-3 plan, then it is not unexpected that it will get close to a rising trend every now and then. The fact that the price spends 7-10 times as much time away from the line than close to it, should point more towards coincidence than a rule.

2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

of which it bounced off Friday... and now we have:

...

now let me clear up one of the points you had made in your review regarding the changing of the downward trendline... I had accidentally dragged it prior to taking the screen shot but didn't realize it until I had taken the screen shot and put it into the post... but thought "meh... nobody should be concerned about that anyway" and had only left that lower trendline in to keep consistency in the chart.

so yes... that lower trendline is gone and replaced by the triangle... and before you go: "see... you just change stuff"... read that linked post above and you'll see that I was well aware of the triangle and had already been plotting it in other charts.

so, now that we're here... what do you think was the driver today?... macro?... news?... or technicals?

to me this is purely technical... but what do you think about the fact that you called the closing price in the stock today after a $20 6% run in the stock based on my numbers?

EDIT: what's important though is... the trendline it just snapped to is the SAME trendline I posted on July 7.

As pointed out by others, there was some major catalyst news (China) and the macros also had a big recovery day from Friday's red, probably due to political background and less catastrophic effect of the Huricane on Florida than feared.
This combination trigered a strong opening, and then trend-algos piled on to amplify it. Once the stock broke out of the triangle, then TA traders also jumped in, since the break was on the upside.

So, in total, I am still not convinced that it is more than coincidence...

 

[sunhelm]

and my point is... there is no "market"... this stock is being moved on a far too incredibly predictable trendline.

but, but, isn't the trendline what makes a market? What I find incredulous with all your phantasms is you refuse to acknowledge the market and continue to do so at your peril. The market may be irrational but it's what drives the share price. The market prices TSLA to a valuation that you may not agree, so you helplessly rant and rave how it's not fair like a petulant child. Just realize you have no power over the market so just accept it and be at peace...and possibly stop your financial hemorrhage in the process.

 

[myusername]

but, but, isn't the trendline what makes a market? What I find incredulous with all your phantasms is you refuse to acknowledge the market and continue to do so at your peril. The market may be irrational but it's what drives the share price. The market prices TSLA to a valuation that you may not agree, so you helplessly rant and rave how it's not fair like a petulant child. Just realize you have no power over the market so just accept it and be at peace...and possibly stop your financial hemorrhage in the process.

i made another 400% trade against this pattern again this morning... i'm in general short the company, but I'm not a fool in how the market functions... my general opinion is this stock hype will eventually hit a brick wall... and I always hold extreme OTM puts... but today... I was a long... I'm not sure what tomorrow will bring.

 

[doctoxics]

Haven't read all of today's investment threads. Perhaps others have already said this, but the Chinese move to all electric is the biggest development for electric cars since the creation of the Model S. Already we hear that major auto manufacturers are going all electric, for all models. Many are rushing to sign agreements with Chinese companies to make electric cars in China. The dam has broken. There is no going back now. The future is all electric transportation. Just a matter of time now. Government mandates can be powerful forces in the economy. China is the largest automobile market. Just as California dictated fuel economy and pollution control technology for all of the US for decades, China will now dictate electrification of transportation for all of the World.

The trade today seemed to be a confirmation of the above. The final realization that the electrification of transportation is imminent brought in new longs and convinced shorts that their position has no hope. This was not a trading day, the volume was modest for the gain, just a steady upward grind. The China story will be a new stream of positive sentiment that will contribute to the other positive themes pushing the stock price higher.

Even more important than the semi reveal and the Q3 deliveries will be reports from owners of Model 3 who are not employees (employees have agreed not to comment on the Model 3). These reports from non-employee owners will create additional strong positive sentiment for TSLA.

 

[vgrinshpun]

So we obviously had a classic break out on high volume today, with the closing price at the top of the regression channel. Thinking about @austinEV three soldiers speculation and the NHTSB expected non-consequential in a big picture finding of Autopilot not being strict enough in policing driver's behaviour, but likely causing knee-jerk reaction nevertheless, it would not be unreasonable to expect a morning dip. Does not feel like it will come all the way down to $355 which is intersection of the middle of regression channel and triangle former resistance and now support line, but my gut feel that we might see a dip down to $358-ish. Overall trend looks good, with sma(5) to cross sma(10) tomorrow and MACD crossover today on a daily chart...

I was able to set up time delayed free bull spread for this week: bought $350 calls at $4.45 on Friday, sold $360 calls at $4.45 today - so $350-360. If we dip in the morning, I am considering buying back the short leg and then selling the $365 weekly call, hopefully at the same price. Expanding my free bull spread to $350-$365 for this week would be nice...

EDIT: Alright, alright - fixing 2s to 3s...

 

[austinEV]

So we obviously had a classic break out on high volume today, with the closing price at the top of the regression channel. Thinking about @austinEV three soldiers speculation and the NHTSB expected non-consequential in a big picture finding of Autopilot not being strict enough in policing driver's behaviour, but likely causing knee-jerk reaction nevertheless, it would not be unreasonable to expect a morning dip. Does not feel like it will come all the way down to $255 which is intersection of the middle of regression channel and triangle former resistance and now support line, but my gut feel that we might see a dip down to $258-ish. Overall trend looks good, with sma(5) to cross sma(10) tomorrow and MACD crossover today on a daily chart...

I was able to set up time delayed free bull spread for this week: bought $250 calls at $4.45 on Friday, sold $260 calls at $4.45 today - so $250-260. If we dip in the morning, I am considering buying back the short leg and then selling the $265 weekly call, hopefully at the same price. Expanding my free bull spread to $250-$265 for this week would be nice...

View attachment 247154

Lol, Vlad change all your 2s to 3s

 

[geneclean55]

The stock will jump a minimum of 3 dollars from closing price today during the first few minutes after the open tomorrow.
It may or may not dip after that.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Just to note, describing today's trading volume as low is misleading. It is more than *double* of yesterday's volume and *double* of the 10-day average volume. One should not ignore the overall context, namely that TSLA was in a consolidation for more than two month with steady reduction in trading volume. This is a classic break-out, no question about that.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Lol, Vlad change all your 2s to 3s

Not going to happen, get used to it!

Will go directly from 2s to 4s.

 

[austinEV]

Stock futures are way the heck up.

Premarket Stock Trading - CNNMoney

 

[myusername]

Stock futures are way the heck up.

Premarket Stock Trading - CNNMoney

i saw this too... i think the site is broken... happens sometimes:

Futures

 

[geneclean55]

Investing.com - Stock Market Quotes & Financial News

This site is the best IMO. Most others are delayed on Futures.

 

[T34ME]

jesus f... yeah... that sounds pretty stupid doesn't it...

but can you pick a line today... on Sep 11... and watch it be the closing price day after day all the way until Nov 15th?... BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT I DID.

Serenity now, serenity now.

 

[30seconds]

i made another 400% trade against this pattern again this morning... i'm in general short the company, but I'm not a fool in how the market functions... my general opinion is this stock hype will eventually hit a brick wall... and I always hold extreme OTM puts... but today... I was a long... I'm not sure what tomorrow will bring.

So basically all your arguments were drivel, and if the stock is going up you will be there as well.

I'll remember your awesome level of conviction next time you bring something up.