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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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Really, these shorts are so f'ing dumb.

It's going to make a nice dissertation for an aspiring grad student in a few years. I had a lengthy conversation with a high net worth short last November (when sp was $180). He's the CTO of a small-medium size tech company and he's a sharp guy, but he was *so* emotional about his short position/TSLA; of course I'm guessing here but it seemed to me like he was jealous of Elon's success. He'd successfully started and sold a number of tech companies and somewhere deep down he seemed to believe that he was "better than" Elon and thus deserved all the accolades etc.

Just one story but something I always think back to when I find myself dumbfounded by the shorties.
 
It's going to make a nice dissertation for an aspiring grad student in a few years. I had a lengthy conversation with a high net worth short last November (when sp was $180). He's the CTO of a small-medium size tech company and he's a sharp guy, but he was *so* emotional about his short position/TSLA; of course I'm guessing here but it seemed to me like he was jealous of Elon's success. He'd successfully started and sold a number of tech companies and somewhere deep down he seemed to believe that he was "better than" Elon and thus deserved all the accolades etc.

Just one story but something I always think back to when I find myself dumbfounded by the shorties.
Misplaced anger from over-inflated and injured egos. There's something categorically wrong with someone who insists on investing energy trying to destroy the work of others instead of improving themselves or their own ideas/products.
 
The fake news and negative bias about renewable boondoggles feeds a convenient narrative. If you get your news from news orgs that present climate change skepticism, which is half of the news, you have a pretty high chance of perceiving Elon as a gravy sucking pig, rather than entrepreneurial disrupter. I think the 4.6 billion dollar subsidy article written by a ghost writer, who immediately disappeared, is one of the most cited articles of the haters. It became an anchor point tying Elon to cronyism. Who knows who paid for that, but it was very effective.
 
Oh really. I wrote several times that it could take until 2020 before the dust is off the Tesla story. I wrote for years that long-range BEV competition and networks will only arrive by 2017-2021 in larger numbers.

The Leaf 2 and the Bolt are just first shots - wait until long-range BEV platforms and CCS/Chademo charging networks at 150kw+ are deployed. Both will happen, there are dozens of long-range BEVs in development (even from former "laggards" such as Toyota or FCA).

Wrong about TSLA stock? I can't be wrong as long as gullible investors pump $ into Tesla. That could take a few more months (in case of an external shock, say a conflict or recession) or even years (if current stock and economic cycle continues).

Wrong about products? Both Hyundai (Ioniq EV refresh) and Honda (new BEV unveil in late 2017, Honda will unveil a new all-electric vehicle this autumn ) will likely have mass-market BEVs with longer range ready by the time the Model3 goes on sale internationally (apparently "late 2018", but likely slipping into 2019 given Tesla's history of missed deadlines).

Meanwhile, Elon Musk keeps pumping hot air and fake deadlines...

Just two examples:

1) FSD promises: Elon, Where is the FSD features you promised?

"6 months definitely" / "FSD within 2 years" (back in 2015)

2) Tesla / Solarcity annual build capacity: Tesla Energy and utility scale projects

"10 GW" or "1GW" - which one is it?

Competition:

"BMW AG and Nissan Motor Co. are offering big discounts in the San Diego area that can knock $20,000 off the cost of a new electric car when combined with state and federal incentives.

In a promotion with San Diego Gas & Electric, the brands are dangling a $10,000 discount, on top of a federal tax credit worth as much as $7,500 and a state rebate worth $2,500. When combined, those cut the cost of a base BMW i3 nearly in half and slash the price of a Nissan Leaf by almost two thirds."

Here's How to Get a $20,000 Discount on an Electric Car
 
In a promotion with San Diego Gas & Electric, the brands are dangling a $10,000 discount,

That is nice and they even say that they have all of 40 i3s available for the promotion. :)

And then the $10k is off of MSRP. How much are the dealers normally discounting these cars? $5k? So this is actually only $5k more of a discount than was available before.
 
I don't know about custom orders, but I've been watching the inventory cars across Europe the last few weeks and they've reduced by at least 50% in that time - P100D's in particular are becoming scarce. Very lucky to have reserved the one I've got pending trade and delivery.
This could be an indication of a refreshed interior coming soon.
 
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