2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Hogfighter]

I'm cautious right now. ER likely will show serious losses. The 3 reveal didn't reveal anything that we didn't already know. Production hell for the next 6 months. I sincerely hope we get some color on the Tesla Energy ramp....really thought that we'd have more information by now. Possible lightening of S sales due to Osbourne Effect will have analysts falling all over each other to bash TSLA.

Long term, super bullish. Short term, cautious. NOT an advice

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Long term, super bullish. Short term, cautious. NOT an advice

I'm yet to see someone say anything different. Bears' mouths are watering while Bulls are "cautious." Some have written puts below $300 in hopes to grab shares after tonight's earnings, some are buying puts to protect against the short-term dip while staying long-term "super bullish."

And everyone is ignoring that SP is already 20% below ATH.

 

[bdy0627]

When Bulls are feeling very cautious is often a contrarian indicator.

 

[KnowLittle]

When Bulls are feeling very cautious is often a contrarian indicator.

I think there is already the Hog Negativity Index... Anyone know what it currently is at?

 

[Bobbyducati]

dont like playing during ER week, but i wrote weekly puts well below 300. I feel pretty safe with those.

 

[winfield100]

How come when I ask Elliot Wave questions, everyone runs away?!?....

OT/begin
Elliot waves have larger And smaller Elliot waves that seem to ride upon them, at all larger and smaller scales, ad infinitum.

Ie, they seem to me to be confirmatory, not predictive.

"Was that wave x ???, YES! Maybe, I'll know in a while, just a bit more data pls, or it could be....."
OT/end

 

[bdy0627]

Very jittery market overall. It's nice not to be very leveraged right now.

 

[Starno]

A close under 308 wouldn't surprise me

 

[viKtor slamet]

Since Friday, TSLA is down -$25 in 3 trading days. At this rate, in 30 more trading days TSLA would be $63. Would pick up as many shares as I could when it reached there in about a month

 

[winfield100]

Some commentary related to shorts.
I view them as largely three kinds, with three different arguments.

4) Bonus: Some people believe that there are oil companies, oil regimes etc. that are short Tesla just to suppress it's stock to make it harder to grow. Personally I think of this as conspiracy theory and don't buy into it. But if you were to believe this theory, these folks might get out ever further out after the third set above (valuation folk).

Riddle me this please.
Set aside conscious conspiracy theory, but more an "unconscious" unease.
In 2015 revenue of 10 largest fossil fuel companies on planet was over $3 trillion, $3,000 Billion.
Think of the planetary fossil fuel industry as an entity. "Doc, I got this tiny cancer of EV's, I need to excise before it grows too big" all at a mostly unconscious level.
EV's need to grow as aggressively as possible to survive and overwhelm and cure the disease of fossil fuel

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Since Friday, TSLA is down -$25 in 3 trading days. At this rate, in 30 more trading days TSLA would be $63. Would pick up as many shares as I could when it reached there in about a month

Why don't you wait another 30 days so market makers pay you to buy the stock?

 

[Waiting4M3]

Riddle me this please.
Set aside conscious conspiracy theory, but more an "unconscious" unease.
In 2015 revenue of 10 largest fossil fuel companies on planet was over $3 trillion, $3,000 Billion.
Think of the planetary fossil fuel industry as an entity. "Doc, I got this tiny cancer of EV's, I need to excise before it grows too big" all at a mostly unconscious level.
EV's need to grow as aggressively as possible to survive and overwhelm and cure the disease of fossil fuel

In 2015 maybe EV was too small on their horizon but looking at the change in OPEC's EV projection in 2016, yes for sure they're waking up to the threat. Too bad though in 2015 oil price was $100/brl, now it's under $50, their profitability probably is 3-5X lower than in 2015, and it's taking increasingly more $ to hold TSLA down

 

[viKtor slamet]

Why don't you wait another 30 days so market makers pay you to buy the stock?

Exactly my point, be patient my very young padawan. PINK:TSLA would be great to own in 60 days! I would purchase as many shares as I could and I would name myself board of directors. That way I would have a shot at Model Y VIN #1

 

[jbcarioca]

... be patient my very young padawan...

FWIW, padwans are by definition adolescents, thus all are very young.

Exactly my point, be patient...

As for the specific advice, 'longs' if they are really 'longs' are inherently patient. They also will tend to avoid trading on peaks and dips as a general rule.
Otherwise we are, after all, in a Market Action sub-forum, thus become preoccupied with the topic at hand, short term movements. By definition the topic is fraught with emotion. Unchecked emotion is the enemy of The Force IIRC.

 

[Irishjugg]

I'm yet to see someone say anything different. Bears' mouths are watering while Bulls are "cautious." Some have written puts below $300 in hopes to grab shares after tonight's earnings, some are buying puts to protect against the short-term dip while staying long-term "super bullish."

And everyone is ignoring that SP is already 20% below ATH.

It's probably going to be 40% below ATH before this down cycle is done. New floors has an outsized effect on TSLA normally.

 

[geneclean55]

It's probably going to be 40% below ATH before this down cycle is done. New floors has an outsized effect on TSLA normally.

Anything special about ~233?

 

[Intl Professor]

It's probably going to be 40% below ATH before this down cycle is done. New floors has an outsized effect on TSLA normally.

Not to pick a fight (I'm a coward), but why "probably" and not "possibly," with which I would agree being a novice investor.

 

[Hogfighter]

I think there is already the Hog Negativity Index... Anyone know what it currently is at?

It's at 5. Neither overly positive nor negative. Head and shoulders over the past few months doesn't help, though.

 

[Irishjugg]

Anything special about ~233?

Nah, I was just saying I highly doubt 20% from ATH would be the end going into this cycle. I doubled his number at random. I guess I don't expect below 250 for any reason, with a 220 worst case if things really go of the rails.

Macro could change things in strange and aggressive ways of course.

 

[Irishjugg]

Not to pick a fight (I'm a coward), but why "probably" and not "possibly," with which I would agree being a novice investor.

Because I think continued downward movement is significantly more likely than upwards or flat and I'd rather be straightforward and wrong than pretend I have a less convicted view and be "right."