Somewhat noteworthy - S3 Partners retweeted @ValueAnalyst's post. Agreeing with it possibly?
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ValueAnalyst
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Fascinating -- shorts selling low and buying high.
Tesla: Shorts Are Covering - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
Seems vaguely familiar. Now where have I heard that before???? ....
Tracking short interest
2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion
Edit: We may be moving the opposite way now -- shorts starting to "sell the dip" -- but hard to tell for sure.
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bdy0627
Active Member
Maybe TT007 is right. Given that everyone is expecting a very negative ER tomorrow, it seems wayyyyyy too easy to buy some protective puts and expect some profits on those while holding onto core shares. Since that feels like shooting fish in a barrel, my gut tells me there might not be any fish in that barrel.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Fascinating -- shorts were selling low and buying high.
Tesla: Shorts Are Covering - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
Seems vaguely familiar. Now where have I heard that before???? ....
Tracking short interest
2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion
It's impossible for me to prove this, but I promise you that I have not previously seen either of your posts on this topic. It makes sense, however, that smart minds think alike.
bdy0627
Active Member
No problem at all -- I thought your article was well written and it is great that you are getting this idea out there.
Shorts seem to be very effective at maintaining the mythology that they make money even when the SP goes up just because they are so darned smart. The data in your article suggests that they actually are doing much worse than would be expected by the rising share price alone, because they are acting irrationally and repeatedly selling low and buying (covering) high on average.
All of the big name hedge fund guys (Chanos, Left, Einhorn, etc.) have all been publicly taking it on the chin and I suspect retail shorts are doing even worse. There may be a few traders who are especially deft at shorting or lucky but they clearly seem to be a small minority.
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A year and a half ago, Tesla bottomed out in the morning of ER at 143 after falling from 240 five weeks earlier. Eight weeks later it was at 265. Macro was weak heading in to the February 10, 2016 Q4 ER, some China stuff, but the report that the ship was right and the upcoming Model 3 unveil in late March directed us to that local 265 high.
This year, we topped out 5 weeks ago around 383 and dropped to as low as 308 or so two weeks later. Now with the ER tomorrow we find our selves at around 320. So where will we be in eight weeks? Perhaps the semi-unveil with extra info in September will create another local peak. 10% above the preceding local high? Would be nice. Then you'll really need my referral code!
jhm
Well-Known Member
My bad. I confused the Bolt with Honda Clarity. The Bolt is doing great, and I hope it continues to sell very well.
Any possibility Dr. Dahn decided to depart academia relatively late in his career for the promised land, and the enterprise can only support one cell jefe?
You may have a point. Since everyone was expecting some type of special announcement during the Model 3 reveal and none occurred. Maybe Elon is holding back for the ER?
Of course anything is possible but on superficial memory of their skill sets, seems Dahn is into research while Kelty was more of a management guy into negotiation and management of battery pack production. Knowledge of Japanese is a unique thing. I once asked a friend, a professor of Asian history, if he knew Japanese. He said he wasn't sure, he only had 11 years studying and learning the language.
You management gurus can assess another WAG. Now that the first stage of the Battery G1 is completed, and there is talk of more to be announced just this year, I hope the negotiation with Panasonic has matured to the point where Kelty's really unique skills are no longer needed. If they are, watch out, fog ahead.
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Although I'm long, I watch the SP relentlessly - has been this since I bought my first shares a couple of years back - and I don't like it going down at any given moment and the last couple of months have been somewhat depressing. Yes, I know I shouldn't look, but I can't help it, I try to understand why it goes up and down on any given day and I've really come to no conclusions whatsoever.
However, Tesla are in a better place than they've ever been. They've actually delivered a product on-time and although it doesn't come with a holographic sex-doll, or whatever some were hoping for, it's getting rave reviews from the few who have driven it - the execution up to this point has been stunning.
I'm incredibly confident and bullish for the future. Keep the faith y'all!
However, Tesla are in a better place than they've ever been. They've actually delivered a product on-time and although it doesn't come with a holographic sex-doll, or whatever some were hoping for, it's getting rave reviews from the few who have driven it - the execution up to this point has been stunning.
I'm incredibly confident and bullish for the future. Keep the faith y'all!
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Fixed it for ya!
OMFG, am I an idiot, or what :-D Fixed my post too... Doh!!
RobStark
Well-Known Member
1) South Korea is not Japan. In Japan only the most premium European models do well. In South Korea the entry level luxury German models do well. S Korea is a target rich environment. Essentially a small dense Island of premium car buyers. Ditto UAE.
2) Entering "Mexico" is entering a handful of wealthy communities in Mexico City, Monterrey, Guadalajara and the "Hamptons" of Mexico Cancun. The supercharger network is,essentially, an extension of the American network. Ditto Poland regards Germany. Handful of stores with supercharger network catering to Germans and West Europeans driving through Poland as much as Poles. Portugal is a Lisbon store and a Supercharger Network for Brits and other North Europeans on Holiday. You can't tell wealthy Northern Europeans they can't drive down South for Holiday forever and expect to grow your business to major OEM levels.
3) Ireland's GDP per capita is higher than the USA. This is not a thin market and should have been penetrated long ago.
4) The government of Jordan purchased ~100 Model S and paid to have infrastructure installed in Jordan.
How would SP react if the loss this quarter is somewhat small, say $500 million or less and Tesla's cash position was still $2 billion or more? Because I think that is a realistic possibility and I think stock would possibly rise in that scenario. I think I may buy back in to 100% today.
Different times, less companies, many fewer market participants, slower change due to slower information etc.
The market was more driven by informed investors then, now is anyone with a Fidelity account, hedge funds, institutions etc.
The trading in Tesla over the last several years particularly with respect to it's movements on "news" and analyst letters alone is enough to convince me that the markets haven't been ideally efficient in years.
Surprised you disagree? Or do you just mean that momentum trading still works? That I agree with, but the guy I responded to presented it as the actual driver of the market and that it came from perfectly efficient markets, which I believe is bunk.
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