2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[MXWing]

imo elon totally BOMBED this reveal. 220 miles? you cant even beat gm's bolt?

top it off, 44k for 310 miles, 1k for anything other than black, 1500 for non aero (putrid disgusting wheels, btw, just my opinion) wheels, 5k for autopilot, 3k for fsd, 5k for premium, that's 59.5k for top shelf M3.

this is definitely NOT a car for the masses. even with base M3, 35k + autopilot + fsd is 43k!!!! get the 1500 wheel upgrade and another color and you're talking 45.5k.

(preparing to get raked over the coals)....

Where do you plan on charging the Bolt if you are travelling more than 100 miles, 1 way?

What was the cost to get autopilot on the Bolt again?

Acting like a clown gets you clowned on so yeah...

 

[jhm]

I'm not sure why so much disappointment. I this was a major breakthrough to make the brand down to earth, warm and approachable. This is all quite important to go broad market. This is not a brand for techno-elites anymore. It's not about impressing the hell out of everyone. It's about ordinary people getting their own wonderful car...that just happens to be electric. This is about all the hopes and aspirations of people who waited for years to be able to buy their first Tesla, and specifically this was for all the workers who have been making this happen.

So get off your high horse as an investor. This is not for us and our petty trading opportunities. This is about much more than that. What will move the stock is selling more cars every quarter. So don't worry about some gimmick to move the stock. Tonight we deliver to the employees. Soon we'll deliver to the world.

 

[ggies07]

I'm going to keep at this one for awhile - you build a car for the "masses" and the only color they can have is black? and then you expect them to pay $1,000 extra for a different color? **** that. What the hell are they thinking?

Only color choice to the ones able to afford the S or X eh? hahaha. wow.

 

[austinEV]

I'm going to keep at this one for awhile - you build a car for the "masses" and the only color they can have is black? and then you expect them to pay $1,000 extra for a different color? **** that. What the hell are they thinking?

Only color choice to the ones able to afford the S or X eh? hahaha. wow.

They options are clearly designed to drive up the price. This helps the gross margin. helps sell the S/X. This is good news for shareholders. Maybe not for buyers but the demand will be strong for years. They have room to lower prices later. Why start cheap? This is GOOD news.

And I think the black thing is a reference to the Ford Model T only being available in black. As Electrek observed.

 

[ggies07]

They options are clearly designed to drive up the price. This helps the gross margin. helps sell the S/X. This is good news for shareholders. Maybe not for buyers but the demand will be strong for years. They have room to lower prices later. Why start cheap? This is GOOD news.

And I think the black thing is a reference to the Ford Model T only being available in black. As Electrek observed.

yeah, I get it. I've been a shareholder since 2012 and have been waiting for this since then, as I obviously can't afford an S or X or would have had one by now, and all I can choose without an upgrade is black? I'm just annoyed right now.....sigh..........

 

[LargeHamCollider]

FSD plus bigger battery increases price by 50%, those are some expensive options! But options that no other mfr can offer. I expect stock to drop, hopefully significantly so I can really load up.

Edit: Also very impressed that they got 310 miles out of a 3800lb car.

 

[mickificki]

Where do you plan on charging the Bolt if you are travelling more than 100 miles, 1 way?

What was the cost to get autopilot on the Bolt again?

Acting like a clown gets you clowned on so yeah...

you mean the autopilot that goes from LA to NY?

 

[Vad42]

I was underwhelmed. And why even mention "going through hell" for next 6 months. Even if it's true, and I'm sure it is, there's really no upside (for stock or model 3 buyers) to saying that. Bad salesmanship on that part there.

 

[generalenthu]

For what its worth, I think Tesla will progressively start decreasing the price as incentives dwindle once the 200K limit is breached.

 

[bdy0627]

I predict stock price drop on Monday:

- "production hell" for 6 months
- lowest GM version being delivered first
- 20 of the 50 M3's produced in July to be used for "engineering validation"
- no update to reservation counter

OTOH, I seem to always be wrong calling short term price movements.

EDIT: I got the smaller battery first from the NY Times article. But I see elsewhere it is larger battery first. Anyone know which is correct?

EDIT2: Apparently Elon told the press reservations now exceed 500K

On the other hand, check out Motor Trend's first drive review. I think that's going to create some waves.

 

[Mr_OW]

At first, I was a bit disappointed with today's presentation, but after thinking about it, this is in line with what Elon has previously indicated. They must antisell the Model 3. Getting 1,000,000 reservations now is not good for anyone. There will be more than enough buyers at these prices, although the "long range" version is a little more expensive, it gives more than enough extra range to justify the price. Overall expensive options, but this also helps GM. Color choices should have been 500 or 750 for metalic and 1000 for multi coat, but they will sell to 1000 dollars as well. In addition, it's a good idea to let autopilot / premium be expensive. Those who consider these options will consider Model S or X and get a car much earlier. I think it's smart and it will increase sales of S and X instead of reducing sales. Give it a few months (probably many months?) and prices will be adjusted a little bit - or something new introduced that will allow Model 3 to always be a good choice when demand is saturated a little.

 

[bdy0627]

Institutional investors may come away from this impressed enough to invest further in Tesla. They are doing all the right things to create a very profitable company longterm. This definitely wasn't a flashy event but once you sift through the information, you realize Tesla is going to sell as many M3s as they want over the next several years and they just demonstrated that their gross margins are going to be quite nice. The big bear argument has been that they won't make any money on the M3. Clearly that's not the case. People are going to bend over backwards to stretch to buy the optioned version of this $35k car to the effect of $45k+. That's great news for Tesla. How's the Bolt doing on gross margins for GM?

 

[wnorris]

FSD plus bigger battery increases price by 50%, those are some expensive options! But options that no other mfr can offer. I expect stock to drop, hopefully significantly so I can really load up.

This is odd thinking to me. They have a situation where demand far outstrips supply. Today's offering may increase the average selling price and allow for people to consider the MS.

Over the course of the next year you may see changes to the offering to allow more options at lower prices. Why on earth would they do anything else considering their need for cash and astronomical M3 demand?

They need to prevent orders from exploding into the one to two million range creating an unsustainable backlog.

Edit: It is pretty clear that Tesla is using pricing and options to influence demand for all models.

 

[mickificki]

On the other hand, check out Motor Trend's first drive review. I think that's going to create some waves.

Exclusive: Tesla Model 3 First Drive Review - Motor Trend

 

[MXWing]

you mean the autopilot that goes from LA to NY?

It will get there.

Not sure when, but I'm completely positive it will get there faster than the Bolt...

Tesla is the first car that has really done anything fundamental different than a Model T Ford and you want to nitpick because you don't like the wheels?

 

[Sudre]

I'm not disappointed in the car. I am disappointed in the event. As far as market action goes.... I don't think there was anything in the delivery event that will cause share price to go up. Everything is what has been expected.

The Bolt which is the only thing to compare to at all is about $38K before incentives but it has more EPA rated range.
The Model 3 is 35K with the Supercharging network but no clue what that will cost to use.
Over all just looking at it from a long range EV standpoint they are comparable.

As some may say... Lots of sizzle but no steak.

 

[bdy0627]

I'm not disappointed in the car. I am disappointed in the event. As far as market action goes.... I don't think there was anything in the delivery event that will cause share price to go up. Everything is what has been expected.

The Bolt which is the only thing to compare to at all is about $38K before incentives but it has more EPA rated range.
The Model 3 is 35K with the Supercharging network but no clue what that will cost to use.
Over all just looking at it from a long range EV standpoint they are comparable.

As some may say... Lots of sizzle but no steak.

I feel the exact opposite. This event was all steak and no sizzle. I was disappointed there wasn't more to it since it seemed like such a historic event, and I wanted more details. But, the actual model 3 is definitely all steak. How long have we been waiting for Tesla to give us steak instead of sizzle? Well, here's the steak, very very well cooked.

 

[racer26]

I'm not disappointed in the car. I am disappointed in the event. As far as market action goes.... I don't think there was anything in the delivery event that will cause share price to go up. Everything is what has been expected.

The Bolt which is the only thing to compare to at all is about $38K before incentives but it has more EPA rated range.
The Model 3 is 35K with the Supercharging network but no clue what that will cost to use.
Over all just looking at it from a long range EV standpoint they are comparable.

As some may say... Lots of sizzle but no steak.

Sure you do - look at the pay-per-use supercharging that has been posted for S/X for months. That's what it will be. Probably with the 400kWh/yr free, just like S/X.

That event was pretty much a non-event though. Main news is factory produced 50 in July, which is more than the 30 we expected, and that the long-range one is >300 mi, and the base is 220, which is still > the promised 215, but < Bolt's 238.

Real world, that doesn't matter, because daily driving, 220 is enough for the vast majority of people, and superchargers mean range is essentially irrelevant for long road trips.

 

[FredTMC]

Good event.

Was light on full specs but the media (Electrek) published the specs and option pricing.

Not concerned with 220 mile for standard battery. Happy that big battery gets 310 miles. Nice

Glowing reviews from Motortrend and Yahoo!

Cant believe I actually saw people complaining that $35k base (and $25k after tax credits for Cali) doesn't include unlocked Autopilot. Really people?! Wake up.

$25k for base Model 3 in Cali. That's a steal. And Car Pool Lane access.

 

[Tslynk67]

Haven't seen the event - I'm just up and stream ain't working here in Europe.

But everything looks totally in-line with all the final snippets and speculation from the last couple of months.

My own thoughts, now we see some decent photos, is that it looks fantastic, the sparse interior is really nice. Perhaps a shame they couldn't get 250 range on the smaller battery - that would have been news, but 310 on the larger (as already worked-out by some smart observers) is superb.

The premium option package looks like very good value, but I think they should make the glass-roof possible without the rest.

Finally, it's my personal opinion that Enhanced Autopilot should be included in the base-price of the car. Should certainly do that for MS and X now.

And as for the comparisons (above) versus the Bolt - you're joking, right? Who would chose a Bolt over an M3 on the basis of 18 miles more range, but with nowhere to charge battery...?

And don't forget the S3X appeal...

P.S. please return to your seats and fasten your seat-belts, turbulence ahead