2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Tslynk67]

Exclusive: Tesla Model 3 First Drive Review - Motor Trend

There's some good info in there, some nuggets:

"The prototype’s trunk opening was criticized as too small; now it’s yawning."
"The ride is Alfa Giulia (maybe even Quadrifoglio)–firm, and quickly, I’m carving Stunt Road like a Sochi Olympics giant slalomer, micrometering my swipes at the apexes."
"The Model 3 is so unexpected scalpel-like, I’m sputtering for adjectives."
"Magic, I’m telling you. Magic. And this is the single-motor, rear-wheel-drive starting point. The already boggled mind boggles further at the mention of Dual Motor and Ludicrous."
"Magic, I’m telling you. Magic. And this is the single-motor, rear-wheel-drive starting point. The already boggled mind boggles further at the mention of Dual Motor and Ludicrous."
"a 2.0-liter Alfa Romeo Giulia..." "...feels like a wet sponge by comparison."

I guess they like it

And from Car Advice (Australia):

Tesla Model 3 quick drive review | CarAdvice

"Frankly, we were blown away with how impressive this car feels at this price point. It's a consumer electric car that offers impressive performance and a generous interior. It's loaded with features and gives everyday people access to an electric vehicle."

 

[RobStark]

Where do you plan on charging the Bolt if you are travelling more than 100 miles, 1 way?

What was the cost to get autopilot on the Bolt again?

Acting like a clown gets you clowned on so yeah...

GM offers SuperCruise on the $92K Cadillac CT6 Platinum but not on the CT6 PHEV because the plugin does not offer the Platinum trim level.

 

[RobStark]

The Model 3 is 35K with the Supercharging network but no clue what that will cost to use.
.

 

[D-egg-O]

For what it's worth...night folks.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

''With the Tesla Model 3’s performance, slinky style, fascinating creativity, and, critically, its Supercharger safety net, I think this is truly where it begins.''

 

[MXWing]

The media is far happier with the car than TMCers.

Based on all the whining in the 3 forums, might as well pack up the stock and give up the dream.

It's the best car you can buy for 35k (not even counting incentives).

Standardized DCFC networking making the M3 your sole vehicle possible with nation wide travel.

Access to the only real semi autonomous software game in town.

People here know more than Tesla store employees so obviously anything on the reveal is going to be disappointment. I'm just hanging on to if you order a car today you will get it at end of 2018.

That implies 400k reservations and 25k monthly average volume from here on out.

You get half a million Tesla's on the road at the start of the 2019 and the exponential awareness that comes with it, bears are cooked.

Next week might still be painful however.

 

[Krugerrand]

Hummm, 50 cars, with max range of 310

AND, the rear seats fold!!!!

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm going to keep at this one for awhile - you build a car for the "masses" and the only color they can have is black? and then you expect them to pay $1,000 extra for a different color? **** that. What the hell are they thinking?

Only color choice to the ones able to afford the S or X eh? hahaha. wow.

I'm cool with it. Was getting black anyway and then wrapping it in - yeah, black.

 

[Krugerrand]

I was underwhelmed. And why even mention "going through hell" for next 6 months. Even if it's true, and I'm sure it is, there's really no upside (for stock or model 3 buyers) to saying that. Bad salesmanship on that part there.

Good thing then that he's been trying to unsell the car for over a year.

 

[Tslynk67]

And just to remind that in bringing the car to production now, Elon & Tesla have hit a time-line that many nay-sayer considered impossible... So yes, Tesla CAN delivery on time and that must be terribly worrying for the other manufacturers...

 

[MartinAustin]

Overall, Tesla appear to be executing perfectly on a schedule they hinted at as long ago as last year. (during the "we're telling out suppliers to plan for a production start of July 1st. We expect to miss this due to slow suppliers etc." ER call) This is a departure for Tesla... usually they're running late by the time they get to the first revealed schedule. Clearly they've been bending over backwards to stick to their published schedule.

Car looks good, panel fit & finish looks good, reviews are great. This could serve to dampen any sell-the-news effect on Monday.

EDIT just noticed Lycanthrope said basically the same thing. Must be the Silver P85...

 

[techmaven]

I do believe there is a sell the news action that is going to happen, especially with this upcoming ER. After that is done... well... if the Motor Trend first drive review is any indication, the Model 3 reviews will come in hot and heavy. The car won't disappoint and those that are bitching tonight will look like the people that bitched about the iPhone and the iPad when they first released, quibbling about this or that.

Major buying opportunities coming up. My biggest fear was that the car wasn't going to be good. And I'm not afraid of that anymore.

The stock will shoot up based on these two most critical items... cash levels and Model 3 production ramp. If the ramp is sufficient such that they don't need cash to get to 5k/week, the stock will be above $400. The issue is when the climb starts and when we start to understand this. There is a production ramp level for 2017 that likely gets them to gross margin positive in 2017, which means no additional cash necessary. Once we have hints that the Model 3 production has crossed over the 1,000/month level, we will know that the production ramp is really moving and they won't need cash if it is early enough in 2017. And guidance right now is for September. But Musk acknowledges he's sand bagging, so exceeding a hundred by a healthy amount in August can give us an early sign.

 

[anon]

LAtimes article says new plan is only 150 in September and that Musk said it could take 9 months for 5000/week ramp. I haven't seen other articles mentioning this though, so I'm a bit sceptical.

 

[techmaven]

LAtimes article says new plan is only 150 in September and that Musk said it could take 9 months for 5000/week ramp. I haven't seen other articles mentioning this though, so I'm a bit sceptical.

Likely a mistype... it's 1,500+ in September, they just left off a zero. Of course, it's the LA Times who hates Musk, so that might be intentional.

 

[Lessmog]

Likely a mistype... it's 1,500+ in September, they just left off a zero. Of course, it's the LA Times who hates Musk, so that might be intentional.

Another mistype: it's the LAte Times ... ?

 

[BornToFly]

I too was unhappy with the reveal. But the initial reviews of the car from Motor Trend couldn't be better. Basically saying it is the best driving/performing car in its market. "Have I ever driven a more startling small sedan? I haven’t. At speed, it gains a laser-alertness I haven’t encountered before. By happenstance, associate road test editor Erick Ayapana had penciled me into a 2.0-liter Alfa Romeo Giulia to get here, and it feels like a wet sponge by comparison." "The Model 3 is so unexpected scalpel-like, I’m sputtering for adjectives." Did they say that about the Bolt?
As more of these reviews come out this weekend, the stock may jump up on Monday....

 

[madodel]

The event went pretty much as I expected. I'm not sure why all the gnashing of teeth, hand wringing and reaching for the razor blade. This is not Apple and he is not Steve Jobs. He did what he has done for a while now and undersold the M3. "You can get an S or X in one to two months". I've seen no mention of Elon saying they will TRIPLE the number of Superchargers by the end of next year. Hopefully I can sell one of my children over the weekend to buy more TSLA from the unhappy folks on Monday.

 

[DragonWatch]

First, I am a long horn bull ~ not the variety used in Spanish bull fights ~ not that stupid.

And just to remind that in bringing the car to production now, Elon & Tesla have hit a time-line that many nay-sayer considered impossible... So yes, Tesla CAN delivery on time and that must be terribly worrying for the other manufacturers...

Overall, Tesla appear to be executing perfectly on a schedule they hinted at as long ago as last year. (during the "we're telling out suppliers to plan for a production start of July 1st. We expect to miss this due to slow suppliers etc." ER call) This is a departure for Tesla... usually they're running late by the time they get to the first revealed schedule. Clearly they've been bending over backwards to stick to their published schedule.

Car looks good, panel fit & finish looks good, reviews are great. This could serve to dampen any sell-the-news effect on Monday.

EDIT just noticed Lycanthrope said basically the same thing. Must be the Silver P85...

Second, everything this stock was building up too just came with a ribbon. It is like every denier possible came out of the woodwork to pee on the public handoff of what Tesla/Elon has been touting.

I realize most humans have no clue what took place, but from a similar experience I can tell you my "gut" feeling is that Tesla just kicked the auto industry in the testicles; the very same way I ~ as a Captain in the army put it to the Russians. Unlike Generals of today that get paid by the Russians I was one they had to watch had the balloons gone up during the Cold War.

Now, the auto industry just like my hand off of the first MLRS battery in Europe and my designed manual field trading MLRS war game; now, now Tesla is coming of age and you can bet your lack of alcohol they are scared including the fossil fuel snort brothers. Kinda funny when they tried adding alcohol to fuel about the same timeframe as my fielding the battery

With this battery I experienced elitests prejudice (both the academy from the west, and the south), lack of adequate funding by higher commands, lack of private vendor parts (no HUMMVs as scheduled) first drug testing with teeth, non-existent family support, a disloyal first seargent which almost caused a mutiny, and I will not bore with the rest. Cannon soldiers and officers alike hated our battery because they inwardly knew the writing was on the wall that their 8" cannon jobs were about to become history due to technology. I was in pure hell with one road out ~ stay alive and hope I still get promoted.

Just like my experience in '83 the ICE auto industry is facing a slowdown, fossil fuels are seeing the writing on the bathroom walls, and bears are looking for fresh meat. Sound familiar? Did you see at the chart ramp up, did you? I did and without question it will be the next six months of hell trying to pump out at lightning speed and lazer precision thousands of cars. Did the option for 310 miles get missed by your radar? The European US army did not miss my GPS mounted in the back of a jeep or in each of my million dollar copy launchers in '83, nor did the Russians.

If you did not see the light last night, well check your vision ~ it may not be the same as Tesla's; maybe a new prescription would help. If you love ICE cars or fossil fuel, the brothers grim have something for you. Or, maybe Germany's auto industry's honestly is more your thing instead of rolling out the newest and brightest technological mass market car.

Did the little guy just walk away with the ball? My gut feeling is that he did

Oh, and my MX100D is blue; would have been a deep forest candy green if I'd had my way.

 

[Navin]

Interesting observation - if you look at mark Spiegel's postings on twitter - they are very similar in terms of tone argument and timing - I'd be willing to bet a velvet jacket they are the same person.

 

[bdy0627]

I do believe there is a sell the news action that is going to happen, especially with this upcoming ER. After that is done... well... if the Motor Trend first drive review is any indication, the Model 3 reviews will come in hot and heavy. The car won't disappoint and those that are bitching tonight will look like the people that bitched about the iPhone and the iPad when they first released, quibbling about this or that.

Major buying opportunities coming up. My biggest fear was that the car wasn't going to be good. And I'm not afraid of that anymore.

The stock will shoot up based on these two most critical items... cash levels and Model 3 production ramp. If the ramp is sufficient such that they don't need cash to get to 5k/week, the stock will be above $400. The issue is when the climb starts and when we start to understand this. There is a production ramp level for 2017 that likely gets them to gross margin positive in 2017, which means no additional cash necessary. Once we have hints that the Model 3 production has crossed over the 1,000/month level, we will know that the production ramp is really moving and they won't need cash if it is early enough in 2017. And guidance right now is for September. But Musk acknowledges he's sand bagging, so exceeding a hundred by a healthy amount in August can give us an early sign.

Totally agree. This is THE car we were all hoping it would be. There is no longer any question about it. The model 3 is now real and it's a game-changer. Tesla told us last year that's what we should expect. Musk didn't talk it up too much yesterday but the reviews coming out are universally clear that Tesla has definitely not disappointed with model 3. So, that's one less thing to worry about as an investor. The model 3 IS an awesome car. I have a model S and after reading the early model 3 reviews, I want a 3!

Second, it is clear that margins are going to be very very good. Period. Another thing we don't need to worry about as investors.

From an investing standpoint, what more could we want? A super fast ramp. Sure, that would be awesome. But, in 12 months, the speed of the ramp won't matter. Whether it takes 3 months or 6 months to get to 5,000 cars per week is immaterial for long term investors. The other 2 factors - how is the model 3? and what are the gross margins on it? - are HUGE long term factors. If the stock dips in the short term, this would be the PERFECT time to add shares or leverage in my opinion since it is truly now just a matter of time until Tesla's finances turn golden. Not if, but when. 3 months? 6 months? 9 months? Smart institutional investors are going to see all of this as well.