2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[D-egg-O]

Customer features don't tend to be catalysts. If the surprise today is nicer interior, bells, whistles, spare tire whatever, that is good for the company long term, good for consumers etc. But not a catalyst for short term trading.

What WOULD be? High reservation numbers, a bullish update on the ramp, gross margin comments, etc. None of which I expect at the handover event. It will be a consumer focused party, its not a make shareholders happy party. Those things would come out in the ER in 3 days not tonight. These parties tend to be about congratulating the team for making what they said they would and getting lots of applause for stuff we basically know.

You make a very compelling argument. Maybe there won't be any SP catalyst tonight, and we'll get something next Wed. instead. Personally, I don't think Elon will share the reservation count tonight. I think they will save this for when they are very optimistic the production ramp is about to go vertical. I don't think they are at that point yet, but who knows. They might surprise us.

 

[22522]

You make a very compelling argument. Maybe there won't be any SP catalyst tonight, and we'll get something next Wed. instead. Personally, I don't think Elon will share the reservation count tonight. I think they will save this for when they are very optimistic the production ramp is about to go vertical. I don't think they are at that point yet, but who knows. They might surprise us.

Somehow I think back order data comes out coincident with model y reveal.

 

[Doit]

It worked fine for me yesterday through Chrome and Windows 10, when I sent hopes for a better audio system than what was used at past earnings report conference calls.

Just now I again successfully opened the form, but had no reason to send a message.

EDIT: Please let us know if you get through. If not, I'll send your message for you.

No, still can't do it. Please send it for me if you deem it's proper, Just delete 2), not that critical anyway. Something is wrong with my system

Thanks, Curt.

 

[Papafox]

Customer features don't tend to be catalysts. If the surprise today is nicer interior, bells, whistles, spare tire whatever, that is good for the company long term, good for consumers etc. But not a catalyst for short term trading.

What WOULD be? High reservation numbers, a bullish update on the ramp, gross margin comments, etc. None of which I expect at the handover event. It will be a consumer focused party, its not a make shareholders happy party. Those things would come out in the ER in 3 days not tonight. These parties tend to be about congratulating the team for making what they said they would and getting lots of applause for stuff we basically know.

I'm in general agreement, but I think the surprise will be range available with the Model 3. That positive surprise may be enough to get analysts and automobile reviewers excited about the reveal. We'll see. If the range is indeed a very positive surprise, expect a new wave of orders, and Elon could share the reservations numbers on Wednesday.

 

[Ameliorate]

No, still can't do it. Please send it for me if you deem it's proper, Just delete 2), not that critical anyway. Something is wrong with my system

Thanks, Curt.

not market action / already been addressed

 

[Tslynk67]

If you're referring to the Marques Brownlee video then isn't is more likely because he has 1.3 million Twitter followers?

 

[MitchJi]

Is the Tesla Model 3 launch today the D-Day for electric cars? I think so

<Snip>
Is this the tipping point?
It certainly feels like today is a milestone in the history of automobiles. If Tesla can entice people to buy its cars the way Apple got people to buy its phones, we’re looking at a major disruption for the ages. All of the pieces are in place:

• 
  
  
  • A sexy, disruptive product.
  • A multiple year head start on the competition
  • Autonomy+Ride Sharing+ Electrification+Solar=disruption
  • Customers lining up
  • A battery factory at the scale of earth’s capacity just a few years ago to meet demand

 

[Curt Renz]

No, still can't do it. Please send it for me if you deem it's proper, Just delete 2), not that critical anyway. Something is wrong with my system

Thanks, Curt.

I would have, but since others have shown that Elon has tweeted that he is aware of this, I'll just leave it at that.

 

[Doit]

If you're referring to the Marques Brownlee video then isn't is more likely because he has 1.3 million Twitter followers?

No, it's someone else. I checked Elon's reply and that lady pointed out to the same video - not a coincident.

 

[EinSV]

I'm in general agreement, but I think the surprise will be range available with the Model 3. That positive surprise may be enough to get analysts and automobile reviewers excited about the reveal. We'll see. If the range is indeed a very positive surprise, expect a new wave of orders, and Elon could share the reservations numbers on Wednesday.

There were a whole slew of initial Model X reviews within a day after the Model X delivery event. Model X First Reviews

I assume we will similarly get a bunch of preliminary Model 3 reviews this weekend, along with oodles of positive press (along with some of the usual Tesla bashing). This could impact the SP on Monday, especially early in the day.

 

[bdy0627]

Huge selling going on right now

 

[bdy0627]

If max pain is 335, it looks like it may well end up around there for the day

 

[D-egg-O]

Nasdaq recovering while shorts attack TSLA.

 

[zdriver]

Heavy (relative to rest of day) selling on liquidity, dark pools (mildly) buying the dip.

Best pin was actually 337.50 as of this morning's open interest, but extra call selling to derisk ahead of tonight might be contributing to the gentle push down throughout the day.

 

[Fifield]

I've picked up some lottery tickets for next week. The most likely range for the stock price to finish the week at this point is between $335.00 and $337.50, based solely on OI. I think the relatively light volume has enabled the pps to be suppressed to this range and we will see a bump in early trading Monday, irrespective of new information entering the market tonight. My hope is the news tonight enhances the upward pressure.

 

[BornToFly]

There is no doubt in my mind that Q2 ER next week is depressing the stock. But, I think the event tonight is going to be Yuge, and stock will probably rebound Monday. So I'm probably not going to roll my 340 puts for today, but let them get assigned to me so I can make another quick profit on Monday.

 

[zdriver]

Of note...
TSLA SMALL OPENING SWEEP DETECTED: >> 350 TSLA Aug 4th 385 Calls $0.995

Just a small $35k lotto for tonight, apparently. Delta on that one is currently 0.068.

(for background, a "sweep" is a special order type that can be used when you want a lot of calls *now* - buy on ask orders are sent to every exchange offering the strike at a particular price, allowing the trader to snap up a large quantity of options without progressively worse prices from a widening spread.)

 

[TheMrX]

Does somebody have a link for the handover?

 

[erthquake]

Does somebody have a link for the handover?

It'll be on the Tesla homepage.

 

[BornToFly]

I think this article puts things into perspective perfectly. Makes me want to sell a kidney to buy more stock....
Is the Tesla Model 3 launch today the D-Day for electric cars? I think so