2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[JRP3]

Secondarily, any requirements set by the board for whether or not conversations are allowed should be set by the moderators within the administrative panel, even if it requires custom code changes.

I believe conversations are enabled by default.

 

[Thumper]

I'm long since $23.80 but suggest we not drink so much of our own Kool aide that we get a hang over. SPs ratchet don't forget caution.

 

[Waiting4M3]

So far the evidence does not seem to point to that. Short interest has if anything increased, not decreased, since we've been playing in ATH territory (which makes sense, its at the ATH, must be going to go back down again).

Love it, the higher we go, the thicker the short cushion gets.

 

[AnneBoleyn]

MODERATOR NOTICE:

This is specifically to TT007: Make available your TMC account profile at once to permit "Conversations" or you will be either:

* Banned from posting on TMC, or

* Subjected to in-thread questions & discussions, and were you not to answer these open displays you will be banned regardless.

This notice goes more generally to ALL Investor Sector participants: You also need to ensure your TMC account profile is set so that you can participate in the "Conversation" mode; you also all must so comply or you too will face banishment if a Moderator attempts to initiate a Conversation but finds it blocked.

====> There is NO 'publicity' or any other kind of information leakage that occurs when a "Conversation" mode is set to open. It simply is an unfortunate glitch in the platform TMC uses.<=====

FIRST, LAST & ONLY WARNING

I strongly disagree. There are people that private message and shouldn't, and it places people in a vulnerable spot. Every media platform allows you to disable PMs if you choose. I don't think a ban is very kind nor is it professional. See if someone can PM Elon Musk? People deserve to participate but have autonomy

 

[jbcarioca]

The Raris agreement is mostly a PR agreement, I doubt if it gets enforced or if there
are any serious consequences for violators.

But the point being its that it is good PR for the USA to get along.
You go along to get along especially if their is little cost associated with going along.

Whatever, i am not touching my long position in tesla.

The Paris agreement is voluntary. By definition there are no formal penalties for non-compliance; political consequences, yes. Dropping out is a seriously brain dead move but there are those who want to create destruction. Mr. Bannon has been explicit about that desire to destroy the state, and mr. Trump has been in agreement. That is not comment on my part but represents their own statements. Thus, the symbolic value to them of destroying common trans-national goals is in fact the goal, explicitly so.

Either way the net consequence on TSLA will be minimal precisely because of the strong positive image among the Paris Accord strongest supporters. Within the US Tesla has most sales already in CARB States, which may even accelerate following this catastrophe.

 

[MitchJi]

@vgrinshpun thanks for posting this:

Morgan Stanley maintains Equalweight on Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) price target of $305.00.

Analyst Adam Jonas believes it is now time to ponder if Tesla is the Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) of autos given its valuation is above that of Ford (NYSE: F) and General Motors (NYSE: GM) and the company begins to challenge the characterization that it is just a car company.

He comments in a research note that investors he has spoken with see Tesla as more than a car company and points toward shared mobility, autonomous driving and electric transportation capabilities. He writes "We believe the market is increasingly coming around to the idea of giving Tesla a low chance of success in a far larger addressable market (transport network, data, time) rather than a high chance of success in a smaller addressable market (cars/machines)."

Jonas further believes that the market may price in the value of Tesla as a strategic or trophy asset as the company builds out infrastructure and unveils its "Tesla Network". He believes given this potential that it is possible for Tesla to reach his bull case PT of $511.

Now is the time to ponder? A classic example of not looking forward! Sounds like Jonas's main concern is not looking foolish when the SP shoots past his target and issued what analysis technically call a CYA note.

Might be a good time to ponder Solar and TE!

We all know that $500 is going to happen. Why $511?!

When does Nostradamus I mean Jonas think that we might reach $511?

 

[Mike Smith]

Not a short squeeze, but I think we're starting to see short adjustment. Remember, as the share price rises a short has to buy shares just to maintain the same sized position. There were around 30 million shares sold short at the spiegel bottom, just like today, which means the shorts have actually added around 80% to their positions.

edit: had mistakenly said sell instead of buy shares

 

[erthquake]

Jonas on Bloomberg:

Morgan Stanley Takes a Pause on Tesla With Downgrade

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I strongly disagree. There are people that private message and shouldn't, and it places people in a vulnerable spot. Every media platform allows you to disable PMs if you choose. I don't think a ban is very kind nor is it professional. See if someone can PM Elon Musk? People deserve to participate but have autonomy

I also would like to point out that disabling the PM feature is not against the forum rules: Forum Rules

It is inappropriate for a moderator to alter the forum rules and then threaten people with bans based on a rule that they had no authority to create in the first place.

 

[D-egg-O]

I also would like to point out that disabling the PM feature is not against the forum rules: Forum Rules

It is inappropriate for a moderator to alter the forum rules and then threaten people with bans based on a rule that they had no authority to create in the first place.

I've disabled the conversation feature in my profile in silent protest to the mod being a bad dog. Apologies to anyone who tries to PM me. I'll enable it when the time is right.

 

[Drax7]

The Paris agreement is voluntary. By definition there are no formal penalties for non-compliance; political consequences, yes. Dropping out is a seriously brain dead move but there are those who want to create destruction. Mr. Bannon has been explicit about that desire to destroy the state, and mr. Trump has been in agreement. That is not comment on my part but represents their own statements. Thus, the symbolic value to them of destroying common trans-national goals is in fact the goal, explicitly so.

Either way the net consequence on TSLA will be minimal precisely because of the strong positive image among the Paris Accord strongest supporters. Within the US Tesla has most sales already in CARB States, which may even accelerate following this catastrophe.

My concern in not tesla per se, but the overall market, which in turn may drag tesla down.
Trump might be right in calling Europeans free loaders when it comes to Nato, and not
care about the consequences. However this climate issue isolates him and creates further friction
which may undermine his other positions.

Two risk factors, business risk inherent to tesla business, and market risk inherent to the overall mkt.
Teslas is obviously making a positive contribution to sustainability and that is a huge marketing advantage.
but a market correction will not spare them .

 

[larmor]

Jonas on Bloomberg:

Morgan Stanley Takes a Pause on Tesla With Downgrade

Just went down to 340... Must be the Jonas pause-- Adam don't miss the bus, hint it is electric.

 

[Yuri_G]

Sqeeze will start at 500, not a $ lower.

Or when there is a big positive catalyst, like a huge product launch...

 

[Runarbt]

I've disabled the conversation feature in my profile in silent protest to the mod being a bad dog. Apologies to anyone who tries to PM me. I'll enable it when the time is right.

I have also disabled the function now, in support of Trendtrader.

As long as it is an option, and not against the rules of TMC.. ? If I was a prominent poster, and got a lot of unwanted attention and private Messages.. the P in PM stands for _Private_.. and if you want to be left alone privately, it should be ok to turn off the function.

 

[Starno]

Or when there is a big positive catalyst, like a huge product launch...

No, the big shorts (Jim Chanos ...), are fundamentalists and financial people. They only look at the raw accounting numbers. They don't care about the price and they know that a price can be irrational for a very long time. Everytime the stock goes up it hurts but they only think the bubble is getting bigger and bigger.

So, knowing that, what is going to trick a short squeeze ? I'd say 3 things :

- 1. How many products does the company is SELLING. Not " going to sell ", they don't care. Remember : accounting. So they only look at the balance sheet and income statement. There is no " going to " on an income statement.

- 2. What are the profits and margins on the products selling, and what is the growth over time of the number of products sold.

- 3. How do the competitors respond.

______________________________________________


According to those criterias,the 3 major milestone that going to blow the shorts are those ones :

- When the first statements of M3 sold will appear.

- When Tesla will see a profit

- When competitors don't have any significant impact

 

[FredTMC]

Jonas on Bloomberg:

Morgan Stanley Takes a Pause on Tesla With Downgrade

Love how Bloomberg implies today was a fresh downgrade

Think how much better financial journalism would be if the "journalist" was required to always reference the date stamp of when the actual event occurred.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I'm gonna go ahead and say that $55B is too high of a valuation. 5 weeks from now maybe, but today???

I guess the insiders know the Model 3 launch is going off without a hitch.

 

[The Blue Owl]

Jonas on Bloomberg:

Morgan Stanley Takes a Pause on Tesla With Downgrade

Bloomberg's title doesn't match the thrust of their own interview. Jonas responds to the perennial "why TSLA bigger than F and GM, har-har" with a patient and cogent explanation that Tesla is skating to where the puck is going to be, while traditional automakers are still playing water polo. He actually defends the valuation and the core reasons behind it.

 

[hoang51]

Jonas on Bloomberg:

Morgan Stanley Takes a Pause on Tesla With Downgrade

I find it somewhat of a bs tactic, but it's the opportunity to buy in more before Model 3 reveal in July.

 

[Runarbt]

I closed two june17 call options today (expiry 16.jun). Will buy one or two 2018/2019 deep in the money calls for the same money tomorrow morning. And then I'll be all set for the long and steady run-up for the next year or two. :-D

Any advice on which options I should choose to buy when I have 15k USD available? one deep itm, or several just ITM? Which exp.dates?