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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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Can't figure out who would be selling right now.

Individuals or institutions that bought in just a couple months ago at $180-190 that wish to take profit. Some that might want to rotate money around in ER season. If you can sell now, rotate into AMZN, then rotate back out into TSLA before ER.

I am not advocating that strategy but I know people who do it.
 
Individuals or institutions that bought in just a couple months ago at $180-190 that wish to take profit. Some that might want to rotate money around in ER season. If you can sell now, rotate into AMZN, then rotate back out into TSLA before ER.

I am not advocating that strategy but I know people who do it.
This is definitely a thing...even with my relatively small holdings...seriously contemplating moving trading money from TSLA into BABA earnings play next Mon/Tues. I was hoping to sell at 250 so might not go through with it. But the thinking is there.
 
Individuals or institutions that bought in just a couple months ago at $180-190 that wish to take profit. Some that might want to rotate money around in ER season. If you can sell now, rotate into AMZN, then rotate back out into TSLA before ER.

I am not advocating that strategy but I know people who do it.

Are we expecting Tesla's earnings report to be a beat? How will it be possible since Tesla missed on deliveries by a couple 1000 vehicles? Even guidance may be a bit weak as Tesla transitions to M3 production. Is it possible Tesla energy and solar offset the vehicle miss?
 
TSLA weekly 13 EMA just crossed over 34 EMA which is long term extremely bullish, however often leads to short term pullback
for me the only trade is to stay super long

Whoa, those are some really obscure metrics there. I know people commonly look at the daily 200 and 50 day crosses, but who the heck looks at weekly 13 and 34 averages? Could you explain the thinking of picking those metrics?
 
Some articles with very "selectively chosen" headlines were published today about NHTSA and new Autopilot.

I suspect the headlines about the NHTSA findings confused algos looking for news to trade on. o_O

Also, some random article was published by a blogger attempting to claim that MS is delusional if MS believes Trump won't be horrible for Tesla and all companies involved in Solar and/or Electric Vehicles. :rolleyes:
 
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Are we expecting Tesla's earnings report to be a beat? How will it be possible since Tesla missed on deliveries by a couple 1000 vehicles? Even guidance may be a bit weak as Tesla transitions to M3 production. Is it possible Tesla energy and solar offset the vehicle miss?

TE is a giant question mark. We heard about several big installs that happened in 4Q16, and Tesla themselves were very quiet about them. I believe this is on purpose - they want to dazzle the market without incredible expectations already on the table. 76k vehicle deliveries, 84k produced is huge when you remember that 2015 only delivered 51k.

SCTY is also a giant question mark, but we know there are reporting changes to the way that a lot of SCTY's financials look to make them better reflect reality (the old way made it look like they're hemorrhaging cash all the time even though they're not).

We sold about 4k vehicles less than guidance, and about 3k less than 3Q16, but the vehicles we sold should have been higher margin due to discontinuing X60, a high mix of P100D, increasing fees and raising the price of AP.

I think its gonna be good.
 
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Are we expecting Tesla's earnings report to be a beat? How will it be possible since Tesla missed on deliveries by a couple 1000 vehicles? Even guidance may be a bit weak as Tesla transitions to M3 production. Is it possible Tesla energy and solar offset the vehicle miss?

I have NO idea what to expect from the next TM ER/CC. I will personally decide what I would like to do once the date is announced and I can see what the SP/trend is at that time.

The point of my post you quoted was to give an example of why people might be selling TSLA today. There are people that rotate money around during ER season in an effort to maximize profits.

Of course if you are incorrect in your rotation strategy you might also maximize losses :eek:
 
"Matt Unterman, director of the financial analytics firm S3 Partners, pegs short interest in Tesla stock at around 37.5 million shares as of Wednesday. That amounts to $8.9 billion, an all-time high, he tells ValueWalk. Interestingly, S3 picked up an additional 1 million shares of Tesla stock being shorted today after Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas revealed his upgrade."

Tesla Short Interest Rips To A New High Following Morgan Stanley's Upgrade
 
"Matt Unterman, director of the financial analytics firm S3 Partners, pegs short interest in Tesla stock at around 37.5 million shares as of Wednesday. That amounts to $8.9 billion, an all-time high, he tells ValueWalk. Interestingly, S3 picked up an additional 1 million shares of Tesla stock being shorted today after Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas revealed his upgrade."

Tesla Short Interest Rips To A New High Following Morgan Stanley's Upgrade
Keep digging that hole shorts. Some day in the not so distant future you'll be buying me a car.
 
TE is a giant question mark. We heard about several big installs that happened in 4Q16, and Tesla themselves were very quiet about them. I believe this is on purpose - they want to dazzle the market without incredible expectations already on the table. 76k vehicle deliveries, 84k produced is huge when you remember that 2015 only delivered 51k.

SCTY is also a giant question mark, but we know there are reporting changes to the way that a lot of SCTY's financials look to make them better reflect reality (the old way made it look like they're hemorrhaging cash all the time even though they're not).

We sold about 4k vehicles less than guidance, and about 3k less than 3Q16, but the vehicles we sold should have been higher margin due to discontinuing X60, a high mix of P100D, increasing fees and raising the price of AP.

I think its gonna be good.

Also, worth considering that even if Q4 report is a mixed bag due to delivery miss and 6.5k in transit. We could see some really good guidance for Q1 and TE and maybe even some bullish comments on Model 3 progress - the market may care a lot more about these factors.
 
Whoa, those are some really obscure metrics there. I know people commonly look at the daily 200 and 50 day crosses, but who the heck looks at weekly 13 and 34 averages? Could you explain the thinking of picking those metrics?
In the stock market any thing that everyone knows is not worth knowing
Everyone uses 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200 SMAs or EMAs. While I do look at those they seldom give you an edge
It's all about having an edge on the masses
To be a successful trader you've got to think like the crowd and at the same time be an outlier
 
I have NO idea what to expect from the next TM ER/CC. I will personally decide what I would like to do once the date is announced and I can see what the SP/trend is at that time.

The point of my post you quoted was to give an example of why people might be selling TSLA today. There are people that rotate money around during ER season in an effort to maximize profits.

Of course if you are incorrect in your rotation strategy you might also maximize losses :eek:
Isn't rotating money the same as playing multiple hands at the same blackjack table?
 
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"Matt Unterman, director of the financial analytics firm S3 Partners, pegs short interest in Tesla stock at around 37.5 million shares as of Wednesday. That amounts to $8.9 billion, an all-time high, he tells ValueWalk. Interestingly, S3 picked up an additional 1 million shares of Tesla stock being shorted today after Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas revealed his upgrade."

Tesla Short Interest Rips To A New High Following Morgan Stanley's Upgrade

Great info -- thanks!

Probably unknowable but interesting to speculate how much of the additional short interest is from "true believers" who think "if it was a good short at $180 it is a great short at $240," versus hedge funds with big options exposure shorting to try to manipulate the SP down to protect their options/do some damage control on bad option bets.

Either way, SP going up fast, and short interest rising -- this is getting very interesting ....
 
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