MartinAustin
Active Member
LOL, Brian Johnson from Barclays just came on CNBC talking about how risky TSLA is and how far it can fall. Stock climbed during the segment and ended higher 
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
Ahh, I get what you're saying. Looking at their Q415 update letter, they guided for full year MS+MX 2016 only after delivering 206 MX in 2015. Makes sense that they will provide guidance for the full product line up (incl M3) in 2H.
Reciprocity
Active Member
As soon as I wrote my response Tesla released a blog post that really talks down the Model 3 vs the S/X. I am starting to think that they are not as concerned with Cannibalization as much as they are the flood of people trading in S/X for Model 3. That would impact new S/X demand as there would be such a glut of CPO and used S/X for sale. That could be a real reason to not give guidance until they know how that is impacting sales in Q3/Q4. With the blog post, they are clearly concerned about something, or they wouldnt be posting.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
$TSLA most analysts are clueless they have no idea And don't make a dime other than giving worthless opinions
I do not listen to them
I do not listen to them
I was feeling pretty clever by selling most of the calls I planned to rebalance today at the peak, and rebuying just over 299. Hour and a half later I was taught yet again that the feeling of doing something clever is almost always paid back one way or another.
Breakeven now, so time to close charts and get some work done.
i know this feeling all too well....I was feeling pretty clever by selling most of the calls I planned to rebalance today at the peak, and rebuying just over 299. Hour and a half later I was taught yet again that the feeling of doing something clever is almost always paid back one way or another.
Breakeven now, so time to close charts and get some work done.
Mike Smith
Active Member
Since the Spiegel bottom there haven't been many times where it has seemed safe to buy TSLA. Other than the brief, sharp pullback to $240 it has gone straight up. Consolidation periods are necessary to allow long term investors to get comfortable with a share price where they feel they can buy in. I really hope we consolidate here for a few weeks, or until there's a news event (like solar roof details).
I'm afraid that if you like short-term options plays on volatile stocks, looking away from the computer is not a good idea hahah.
I was tempted to sell the peak earlier but got greedy.
SW2Fiddler
We Are Cognitive Dissidents
$TSLA Due to the nature of my deployment, I am restricted from closing a position for a profit, within 60 days of opening it.
$TSLA Thus I cannot day trade (or even week trade, fortnight trade, moon trade...)
$TSLA Paradoxically it's had a nice, calming "Seat Belt" effect ... when I buy, I'm strapped in for the ride!
BURMA $HAVE
$TSLA Thus I cannot day trade (or even week trade, fortnight trade, moon trade...)
$TSLA Paradoxically it's had a nice, calming "Seat Belt" effect ... when I buy, I'm strapped in for the ride!
BURMA $HAVE
Why do you imagine there will be "a flood" of people trading in their S or X for Model 3s?? How frequently do people driving high end performance/luxury cars trade them in for smaller and slower cars? Even before full autonomous hardware was added to all S/X cars, both vehicles were already safest cars on the market. Pre fall 2016 owners who want the max possible safety will be more likely to trade in for new S/X than a Model 3. They'll get a HUD display to boot!
I don't know what to think about the '330 mile range gets you from Los Angeles to San Francisco' - each time I go its between 380 and 400+ miles distance.
Reciprocity
Active Member
I wasn't concerned at all about how 3 would impact the S/X until that post for many of the reasons you stated and more. I think it might have to do with the fact that Tesla knows how many existing Model S/X owners have reservations for Model 3 and in fact many have multiple reservations from talking to the guy who sole me my car. Remember that existing owners are first in the queue after employees. I think they are concerned of a glut of trade ins, if they were not concerned, why would they post such a negative forum post if they didnt want people to re-think their plans?
adiggs
Well-Known Member
How often do people that can afford a model 3 scale car stretch and buy an S/X scale car instead? This is the dynamic that I don't think anybody can quantify yet, but which is something being considered by Tesla, and is a dynamic to think about as an investor (wherever you decide to land).
Lots of anecdotes (I'm one of them) of people that can afford an S/X, that would never otherwise consider spending that kind of money on a car (any car). In my case - upgrading from a 24 year old Honda CRX to a $80k used Roadster. How many buyers of S/X are people roughly similar, who love the idea of continuing to drive electric, and doing it in a $50k car instead of a $100k+ car? Is it enough people to change the quarterly delivery numbers for S/X (edit: while simultaneously pushing a lot of used S/X cars into the market)?
I don't have an answer one way or the other, and I'd have a hard time believing anybody who said they had a definitive answer. It looks like Tesla is taking some proactive actions to mitigate possible downsides, while possibly further increasing sales of the premium car due to availability (at least for the next year or 2). That sounds prudent and downright reasonable to me as an investor.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
The video.LOL, Brian Johnson from Barclays just came on CNBC talking about how risky TSLA is and how far it can fall. Stock climbed during the segment and ended higher
Reciprocity
Active Member
Reciprocity
Active Member
For example. If I am a Model S owner and I have 2 Model 3 reservations and there are 20,000+ people like me. I could see Tesla interpreting that as an intention for the owners to trade in the Model S for the one 3 and purchase a second. Tesla has detailed registration data and we are just speculating. That is awesome because there is huge demand for the 3, but that could put a lot of excess used Model S into the market. It could just be that they want to set proper expectations about the type of car the Model 3 is and it is not just a tiny bit smaller Model S.
He probably meant from the edge of LA county to the edge of San Francisco county, which is 320 miles.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Article
