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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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Okay here is the deal about buying on a dip.. buying on a dip makes you feel like a genius (in retrospect) however it is a very risky thing to do in the stock market
Actually, I think this is a difference between:

(a) being short term vs. being long term. If you're investing for the long-term based on a valuation thesis, there's no risk to buying on a short-term dip (except if you're leveraged; see below). If it goes lower, whatever. (A *long term* dip of multiple years due to mismanagement is another matter though -- I could discuss those.) If you're investing for the short term, however, there's a much bigger risk to "catching a falling knife".

There's another way to put this: Momentum trading works over the short term, but stinks over the long term. Value/growth investing works over the long term, but not necessarily over the short term (though it can pay off in the short term sometimes).

(b) being on leverage and not being on leverage. Buying into a falling market with no leverage is not very risky at all! At most, you can lose your initial investment, and you've minimized that. (And you can wait for the stock to recover). Buying into a falling market with leverage, by contrast, is highly risky, because, wait for it, "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent", and you can end up with debt larger than the mark-to-market value. And be forced to close out positions when you didn't want to.

When I loaded up on TSLA in September, October and November, if it had gone even lower, I would have bought even more. But I would have stopped before I had to borrow money.

So we're both right, 007 -- we're just using different investment strategies. What is suitable for one is not suitable for the other.
 
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As a long-term holder, I actually have some desire for the stock to stay lower longer, so that I have more good buying opportunities (Warren Buffett has discussed this)... but I'm not going to get my wish. I was thinking the big runup would be, y'know, September, and instead it started in January. :rolleyes:

Oh well. :p
 
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I believe they are not guiding because they do not know how many 3's they can make in 2017

Unless I'm misinterpreting, I think you're conflating MS/MX non-guidance with Model 3 non-guidance. Not knowing how many 3's they can make should not have any constraint on MS/MX production resource. So it's not the inability to produce them but rather how demand might affect MS/MX once M3 ramps up.
 
As a long-term holder, I actually have some desire for the stock to stay lower longer, so that I have more good buying opportunities (Warren Buffett has discussed this)... but I'm not going to get my wish. I was thinking the big runup would be, y'know, September, and instead it started in January. :rolleyes:

Oh well. :p

I hope it stays around here for a while because it strengthens the ownership pool. I want as many true believers as possible to take shares from the momentum traders before it starts going up again and they feel like they've missed out.
 
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Unless I'm misinterpreting, I think you're conflating MS/MX non-guidance with Model 3 non-guidance. Not knowing how many 3's they can make should not have any constraint on MS/MX production resource. So it's not the inability to produce them but rather how demand might affect MS/MX once M3 ramps up.

Im not conflating anything. I dont think Tesla will report them as different numbers. They will project total car deliveries iresective of weather they are S/X or 3. I also dont see how a person who starts the purchasing process in July or August of 2017 will choose a 3 over a S/X because he wont get the car until the end of 2018 at best. I think this makes the opposite more likely that the lack of the ability to get a 3 will push people into S/X. I know this first hand, as that is what I did. And in the end, I chose to keep my 3 reservation.
 
I suspect that Elon's tweets about the M3 maxing out at 75kwh, and timing of P-D M3 being 6-9 months later, vs not as much details on the base model, is not a coincident. This clarifies expectation at the high end of M3 where it will most likely overlap with the MS, and they will have a quarter (Apr-Jun) to gauge the reaction on MS demand before M3 is even released, and can fine tune their M3/MS product mix and pricing.
Agree, that is probable.
 
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