2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[austinEV]

I stopped lending out all my shares at Fidelity couple of months ago precisely because of Chickenlittle warning about impending short squeeze and potential risk of failure to deliver back shares lent out to short-sellers

Really folks, pulling in your shares is the market equivalent of buying that many shares at this point. That many shares are locked up and unavailable to selling. Public Service Announcement. If a growing number of longs withdraw their lending shares it will further add fuel to the fire.

 

[geneclean55]

Because I have a margin account, Fidelity shifts my shares into margin even though they were bought under the 'cash' option at time of purchase.

Which might mean that they make them available to short without my knowledge. Not sure.

 

[CaliBear1]

Congrats on a great call and a big day TT007!

I stopped lending out all my shares at Fidelity couple of months ago precisely because of Chickenlittle warning about impending short squeeze and potential risk of failure to deliver back shares lent out to short-sellers

 

[TrendTrader007]

Congrats on a great call and a big day TT007!

Thanks bud!

 

[TrendTrader007]

Really folks, pulling in your shares is the market equivalent of buying that many shares at this point. That many shares are locked up and unavailable to selling. Public Service Announcement. If a growing number of longs withdraw their lending shares it will further add fuel to the fire.

Well I did my part by withdrawing literally thousands of shares and foregoing thousands of dollars of interest from shorts but I suspected that a short squeeze was impending so it was an easy decision

 

[TrendTrader007]

I'm thinking this is analog of situation I described last night, FB breakaway in July 2013. I expect similar mechanics
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You're absolutely right. This is a huge breakaway gap on massive volume. This stock is now free to roam uncharted territory with blue skies ahead
I had to make a really hard decision today not to buy anymore tesla I did buy tesla at the open at $287 but then decided not to chase it anymore once it took off because I already have more than enough Tesla shares and calls instead I'm thinking about putting fresh money into a Snapchat at the open tomorrow and I will keep on holding my tesla stock and calls for the next several months. I have been too busy with my day job to even look at my accounts so I have not calculated my winnings but I suspect it is somewhere in the range of $500-$600,000 in a single day so I'm pretty happy and any fresh money that I put in the market tomorrow I'm probably going to put in Snapchat instead of Tesla

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I have no real clue, but here are scenarios I consider for tomorrow in descending order or probabilities:
1) Open in high 280, crosses 290, and there is a war the whole day btw 290 and 300
2) Don't know, something unexpected as is TSLA's habbit, including possible pullback. This is a favorite stock for MMs to take lunch money away from retail traders
3) Open low 280 and spends the whole day 280-290
4) Opens 305+, spends some time btw 300-310 being violently shorted, and then continues marching and finishes somewhere btw. 310-350

Release of results on Sunday will let many shorts simmer overnight, and they may be done by the morning. This is why I think #4 is a real possibility

Ok, this is bragging (and luck), but my scenario #1 did turn out to be correct

 

[racer26]

Ok, this is bragging (and luck), but my scenario #1 did turn out to be correct

Now - what's tomorrow's possibilities?

I'm thinking most likely - we see a decent pop premarket and at open as the shorts who got margin called tonight try to escape, and then probably a dwindle down into the afternoon.

Not sure what magnitude those moves take though.

 

[pz1975]

Not a crazy prediction here but I think it will definitely touch $300 tomorrow and meet with resistance as lots of longs will be profit-taking.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Now - what's tomorrow's possibilities?

I'm thinking most likely - we see a decent pop premarket and at open as the shorts who got margin called tonight try to escape, and then probably a dwindle down into the afternoon.

Not sure what magnitude those moves take though.

I think that this Stock will surprise everybody and keep on going higher

 

[zdriver]

I think that this Stock will surprise everybody and keep on going higher

Hope you're right. After watching it continue higher all day, I finally said f it and pulled the trigger on an April 21 320-330 call spread. Felt like an incredibly dumb move all day, but felt better seeing it rally into close...

 

[Starno]

Not a crazy prediction here but I think it will definitely touch $300 tomorrow and meet with resistance as lots of longs will be profit-taking.

I think it will pass the 300, but there is big chances that it will stagnate not too far from the 300 because I feel like investors are going to enter a period of uncertainty : on one hand they'll be pushed to believe in the magic of Elon Musk and Tesla, but on the other hand they might think that Tesla is getting a bit too high for the moment and so not initiate any position, waiting for more supporting evidences.

 

[Starno]

I think that this Stock will surprise everybody and keep on going higher

It might also indeed. A "new generation" of long might come in. People who knew TSLA from afar and believed in Elon but waited for some "break out" to act.

 

[elasalle]

I think it will pass the 300, but there is big chances that it will stagnate not too far from the 300 because I feel like investors are going to enter a period of uncertainty : on one hand they'll be pushed to believe in the magic of Elon Musk and Tesla, but on the other hand they might think that Tesla is getting a bit too high for the moment and so not initiate any position, waiting for more supporting evidences.

Time to move the goalpost ... $333 before Earnings .. in the year of the 3

 

[dmckinstry]

And 666 by July '18. What a beast..

 

[madodel]

Yeah M3 would have been a nice mention.

So on Monday will this be a sell the news day? Or will investors believe Tesla can execute the plan?

Guess we are running with the bulls of TSLA. I got off an 8 hour plane flight from Dusseldorf, turned on my phone and saw TSLA up over $16. I was hoping for $20 just because I like even numbers. Damned if by the time I cleared passport , got my luggage and was finally driving my beautiful Sig X home, I flipped my phone on and saw it was up over $20. Great day that investors seem to finally see what many of us here have seen for years.

 

[neroden]

Because I have a margin account, Fidelity shifts my shares into margin even though they were bought under the 'cash' option at time of purchase.

Which might mean that they make them available to short without my knowledge. Not sure.

Again, the question is whether they're considered "fully paid". If you have a zero margin loan balance and all trades are settled, they can't lend 'em out even if they're on the "margin side"; I spent quite a while verifying this, and was told several times that it was an SEC requirement. "Fully paid" shares have to be put in a segregated account.

If you have *any* margin loan balance, however, the broker can decide for themselves which shares are fully paid and which aren't. So.

 

[neroden]

Now - what's tomorrow's possibilities?

(1) Mild retrenchment with profit-taking longs and shorts who have lots of money shorting even harder, but support above $280 as longs buy in at that point
(2) Slowly battering at that huge set of limit orders to sell from 299 to 300 until it finally bursts through and closes a little above... or maybe it doesn't burst through tomorrow and ends basically flat
(3) Margin-called shorts covering as early as Frankfurt open, and in premarket, and at open, causing a pop above 300, picked up by the mo-mo traders and mo-mo bots and going higher, straight into a short squeeze

Honestly, who knows? Could be anything.

 

[Johann Koeber]

Already trading up in after-hours. Gee-zus. Bid's back up to 298.90.... (and now it's back down. I think someone didn't get as many shares as they wanted during the regular session because that was a bid with large volume.)

OK, the first 5 minutes of extended hours were very busy. It seems to have calmed down now to the usual not-much-trading, with a steady ask price of 298.90 (and slowly dropping) and bids consistently above 298.52.

Next market action will be from Frankfurt at 3 AM EDT... (or is it 2AM? I'm confused by the time zones and opening times)

Frankfurt starts at 8 AM Berlin time, Lange&Schwarz at 7:30, Xetra (the electronic exchange) at 9 AM.

We are both on daylight saving time, so subtract 6 hours to get New York time.

NY ist on GMT -4
Berlin (and Frankfurt) are on GMT +2

Bottom line: Frankfurt opens trading at 2 AM.

 

[T3slaTulips]

(1) Mild retrenchment with profit-taking longs and shorts who have lots of money shorting even harder, but support above $280 as longs buy in at that point
(2) Slowly battering at that huge set of limit orders to sell from 299 to 300 until it finally bursts through and closes a little above... or maybe it doesn't burst through tomorrow and ends basically flat
(3) Margin-called shorts covering as early as Frankfurt open, and in premarket, and at open, causing a pop above 300, picked up by the mo-mo traders and mo-mo bots and going higher, straight into a short squeeze

Honestly, who knows? Could be anything.

I'll take door #3.