2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Papafox]

That has trendtrader007 written all over it! Tesla is going to the moon next week.

(I personally love his posts. They get me psyched up imagining all the money we are going to make.)

Fun to say, but Trendtrader007 is a stock and leaps guy. April 28 is way too short for him. His avoiding the temptation of short-term calls is consistent with his ability to actually make lots of money.

 

[PaulusdB]

I'm afraid I don't understand this logic. The quarterly calls are still outstanding, and if they wrote the calls, they can't do anything to close them (other than to "buy to close" which will still force the price up. Can you clarify what you mean?

The logic is like this, G.
By short selling, the market makers depress SP below $280. This causes all their $280 and up short calls to expire worthlessly. On monday they will want the short stock position to be closed, causing upward momentum. Could make for an interesting 'amateur hour' peak, indeed.

 

[ggr]

The logic is like this, G.
By short selling, the market makers depress SP below $280. This causes all their $280 and up short calls to expire worthlessly. On monday they will want the short stock position to be closed, causing upward momentum. Could make for an interesting 'amateur hour' peak, indeed.

True for calls that expired yesterday (and I've done that myself), but @neroden referred to "quarterly calls". That's my confusion. The March quarterly calls expired back on the 17th. Yesterday's calls were just plain old weeklies.

 

[geneclean55]

ALL eyes are on TSLA. I had a look at some of the bigger name twitter traders (100k cumulative followers) the past day or so. They are all highlighting TSLA.

 

[Starno]

ALL eyes are on TSLA. I had a look at some of the bigger name twitter traders (100k cumulative followers) the past day or so. They are all highlighting TSLA.

Yep, there's gonna be lot of action...

 

[TrendTrader007]

On the eve of start of Q2 and upcoming delivery #s here is how TSLA stands on long term charts
First the yearly chart: notice how out of last 8 years of trading only a single year 2016 was negative
The way I interpret it is that overwhelmingly odds have been and continue to be in favor of bulls
So far TSLA has been a losing investment on short side and winning investment for bulls and a 30% price increase in first quarter alone potentially harbingers even stronger gains in SP for rest of the year
And even the losing year 2016 was a hammer with close toward the highs of the range
There are secular bullish forces making TSLA one of the winningest stocks of the last decade and for the next 20 years
Why on earth would bears bet billions of dollars on short bets eludes me
All you've got to do is look at long term charts

 

[erthquake]

View attachment 220801 On the eve of start of Q2 and upcoming delivery #s here is how TSLA stands on long term charts
First the yearly chart: notice how out of last 8 years of trading only a single year 2016 was negative
The way I interpret it is that overwhelmingly odds have been and continue to be in favor of bulls
So far TSLA has been a losing investment on short side and winning investment for bulls and a 30% price increase in first quarter alone potentially harbingers even stronger gains in SP for rest of the year
And even the losing year 2016 was a hammer with close toward the highs of the range
There are secular bullish forces making TSLA one of the winningest stocks of the last decade and for the next 20 years
Why on earth would bears bet billions of dollars on short bets eludes me
All you've got to do is look at long term charts

Excellent post. Welcome back!

 

[TrendTrader007]

Now up next is quarterly chart which clearly shows a 8 quarter long cup/ saucer pattern being formed which needless to say is extremely bullish. There was a 12 Quarter sideways range from 2012 to 2013 which culminated in a 6 quarter melt up which took TSLA 7 times from $40 to $291. Now after a 11 Quarter sideways range I believe we are on the cusp of a similar melt up which could easily propel TSLA several times over the next 6 Quarters or so
Notice how bullish and symmetrical the pattern is, flanked on each side by white maribozus Q2 '15 and Q1 '16
Again, 30% SP gains in a single quarter is not a sign of weakness but simply reflects the tremendous underlying strength of TSLA
In the stock market strength begets strength. You always wanna bet on securities that right off the gate post strong price gains and 30% up in first 3 months of the year argues for at least a 50 to 60% up year if not a 200% to 300% up year
Now don't get me wrong I'm not stating with any degree of specificity exactly how high TSLA will go this year or next but all I'm doing is reading the charts and interpreting what is plain as daylight to me

 

[TrendTrader007]

Monthly chart deserves no explanation other than 2 salient features that jump at the onlooker right off the bat:
Bollinger breakout in the making
MACD crossover
Both are strong bullish long term indicators
If TSLA breaks out on monthly bollinger then watch out guys! This thing is going to run up like there is no tomorrow

 

[TrendTrader007]

Weekly chart shows an inverse head and shoulders formation: bullish
Upward pointing EMAs and 20 EMA (dotted line) bullishly crossing over 34 EMA (red line)
Could we have a breakout failure at $291 sure! Anything is possible! For all I know Trump may stop tweeting or Elon Musk may realize the folly of his ways and swear allegiance to fossil fuels! But that is not the way I'm betting!
Res Ipsa Loquitar
The thing speaks for itself

 

[TrendTrader007]

Excellent post. Welcome back!

Thanks bud!

 

[sdtslafan]

You make real money by seeing value where others don't and putting it all in the line.

You have to place your bets when the outlook is murky and the skepticism of others is depressing the price.

Once there is a clear path, it's too late because the stock will have already appreciated.

I have great respect for trendtrader007 for putting it all on the line. I hope he continues to freely post what he believes. I'm also all in on this stock so I understand and appreciate what it means to be bold in the face if risk.

The fact that he was willing to be interviewed rather than hide in anonymity is awesome.

Maybe we'll both be wrong...and well have to live with that. But there will be no regret for missed opportunities.

 

[Lump]

@TrendTrader007 Do you place any importance on the current "$280" resistance, do you look for a close above lets say $282 or $284 to give a break out signal, some TA view repeated tests over long periods of time more of a "resistance zone", any thoughts?

 

[TrendTrader007]

Daily gets tricky. Now the bull in me wants to believe that last 4 days tights will resolve to upside with a furious bollinger breakout I fully acknowledge the possibility that if delivery #s are weak then we may have a minor pullback which in the bigger picture will be a non event
I simply am not able to do short term predictions with any degree of certainty
Short term is tricky long term is easy

 

[AnneBoleyn]

View attachment 220813 Weekly chart shows an inverse head and shoulders formation: bullish
Upward pointing EMAs and 20 EMA (dotted line) bullishly crossing over 34 EMA (red line)
Could we have a breakout failure at $291 sure! Anything is possible! For all I know Trump may stop tweeting or Elon Musk may realize the folly of his ways and swear allegiance to fossil fuels! But that is not the way I'm betting!
Res Ipsa Loquitar
The thing speaks for itself

 

[AnneBoleyn]

Lol- love this.

View attachment 220813 Weekly chart shows an inverse head and shoulders formation: bullish
Upward pointing EMAs and 20 EMA (dotted line) bullishly crossing over 34 EMA (red line)
Could we have a breakout failure at $291 sure! Anything is possible! For all I know Trump may stop tweeting or Elon Musk may realize the folly of his ways and swear allegiance to fossil fuels! But that is not the way I'm betting!
Res Ipsa Loquitar
The thing speaks for itself

 

[AnneBoleyn]

View attachment 220815 Daily gets tricky. Now the bull in me wants to believe that last 4 days tights will resolve to upside with a furious bollinger breakout I fully acknowledge the possibility that if delivery #s are weak then we may have a minor pullback which in the bigger picture will be a non event
I simply am not able to do short term predictions with any degree of certainty
Short term is tricky long term is easy

But I would gladly have you manage my funds without batting an eye. I believe you truly invest with your whole heart. Whereas you be overly optimistic at times, your faith is unwavering, and it is those who believe in the implausible that achieve the impossible. People don't know you, and skeptics of your intentions will come and definitely go- but at the end of the day their opinions make no difference at all. You're a unicorn in the world- rare, priceless, and spectacular. I am lucky to know you.

 

[TrendTrader007]

But I would gladly have you manage my funds without batting an eye. I believe you truly invest with your whole heart. Whereas you be overly optimistic at times, your faith is unwavering, and it is those who believe in the implausible that achieve the impossible. People don't know you, and skeptics of your intentions will come and definitely go- but at the end of the day their opinions make no difference at all. You're a unicorn in the world- rare, priceless, and spectacular. I am lucky to know you.

Posting a breakout of my options positions: definitely not an advice to anyone simply reflects my own beliefs:
TSLA Jan '18 $250 call
TSLA Jan '18 $290 call
TSLA Jan '18 $ 300 call
TSLA Jan '18 $410 call
TSLA Jan '19 $250 call
TSLA Jan '18 $260 call
TSLA Jan '19 $300 call
TSLA Jan '19 $500 call
Another stock I'm super bullish on for next 2 to 3 months and own a bunch of calls and stock is $SNAP

 

[TrendTrader007]

You make real money by seeing value where others don't and putting it all in the line.

You have to place your bets when the outlook is murky and the skepticism of others is depressing the price.

Once there is a clear path, it's too late because the stock will have already appreciated.

I have great respect for trendtrader007 for putting it all on the line. I hope he continues to freely post what he believes. I'm also all in on this stock so I understand and appreciate what it means to be bold in the face if risk.

The fact that he was willing to be interviewed rather than hide in anonymity is awesome.

Maybe we'll both be wrong...and well have to live with that. But there will be no regret for missed opportunities.

Thanks bud!

 

[MitchJi]

Posting a breakout of my options positions: definitely not an advice to anyone simply reflects my own beliefs:
TSLA Jan '18 $250 call
TSLA Jan '18 $290 call
TSLA Jan '18 $ 300 call
TSLA Jan '18 $410 call **
TSLA Jan '19 $250 call
TSLA Jan '18 $260 call
TSLA Jan '19 $300 call
TSLA Jan '19 $500 call **

Do you plan to hold the starred calls until they are green (worth more than you paid), or ITM?

Thanks!