2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[DaveT]

My take is today's spike has nothing to do Model Y, cap raise, or TE in Australia.

Most likely explanation is that some large shorts are exiting their position. Perhaps it's because Citron (who I don't think had a large position) announced they exited their position yesterday and there are some hedge funds who follow Citron, thus they might be the ones who are covering today.

 

[JRP3]

Or it could be a bit of everything piling up.

 

[AlMc]

Or it could be a bit of everything piling up.

No. It is because @AlMc exited some of his J19s last week that he bought when we were in the $180-200 range thinking he could rebuy when we went sub $242.

 

[neroden]

And there go my attempts to get my 3/31 $250Ps to execute. :sigh: Not a bad problem to have, though.

 

[GoTslaGo]

FWIW, as @TrendTrader007 had pointed out a while back (it was approaching when he pointed it out). MACD has now crossed above the signal line on the Monthly chart, for the first time ever in TSLA history (ok I didn't magnify the early 2 years to see if it did there, too small...).

 

[Mich]

My theory for the pop:
Today looks like the pop after cap rises in the past. Everyone was waiting for the cap raise but it was not coming. So "Let's do the pop anyway!" was the motto of the day!

 

[Hogfighter]

To paraphrase a quote from the very good book Fooled By Randomness:

"Today the stock moved for absolutely no reason at all".

 

[Papafox]

I suspect we'll see some day traders exiting in the closing half hour.

 

[geneclean55]

Vicious. Thats the last time I sell weekly calls.

 

[Papafox]

I suspect we'll see some day traders exiting in the closing half hour.

Sometimes, I love being wrong more than being right.

 

[traxila]

Link or your speculation?

Lol I should have a link to the insiders trading on government leaks. That would be pretty cool.

Hey, fake news is everywhere figured I would join the show. Good stuff too, possibly true and verifiable to preconditioned bias. Trade as you will.

 

[Chop110]

Just so we are clear. The pop happened because I sold my shares right before it really took off. I will let you all know when I am buying shares again so that you can do the opposite.

 

[dmckinstry]

Just so we are clear. The pop happened because I sold my shares right before it really took off. I will let you all know when I am buying shares again so that you can do the opposite.

Usually, my results are like yours. However, yesterday a.m. I bought 2 shares at $243.3469. I guess the secret is do just trade a small number of shares.

 

[geneclean55]

100% sure tomorrow will be a very strange day for the entire market. Trump is trying to force the FED to raise rates. Elections tomorrow, Debt Ceiling hit tomorrow, and FED rate decision.

Very strange that Trump is pumping jobs figures that don't reflect the present state of affairs or the millions who will lose their jobs if he continues his current path.

Why is Trump Tweeting about economic data points that are not significant by themselves, and don't reflect the present state of affairs every chance he gets?

Why isn't every news source discussing the Debt Ceiling? This is extremely important! If people lose faith in the safety of US bonds, yields will skyrocket. If Debt Ceiling isn't raised tomorrow, US government will have to initiate massive cuts across the board. (meaning layoffs/firlows), and cuts to budget. US Treasury barely has $100 billion in cash, and spent $200 billion + in past month to prevent debt Ceiling from hitting $20 trillion. Why are news sources saying this is enough to delay things for a few months? It's only enough if the US defaults.

Is this TSLA market action talk or another rant about Donald Trump?
There is the General market thread one click over..

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Is this TSLA market action talk or another rant about Donald Trump?
There is the General market thread one click over..

Your point is not valid. Tesla is part of the broad market and therefore my comment is related to Tesla. Also, your post was entirely focused on Trump. I simply stated facts and events that are real, not some "fake news" or "hyperbole" about Trump. Your comment proves you have a very skewed view of the world and makes your bias very clear.

 

[1kEE]

Vicious. Thats the last time I sell weekly calls.

Short term trading this stock is a nasty game.... I took a 15k loss on Mar17 250 calls last Thursday figuring this will break down further.... that stuff would have done awesome today! As in I don't want to know how well!

Oh well, I'm still long, still in the green after piling up at 180, it could have been a lot better and could have done a lot worse!

 

[Jayjs20]

Days like today make me glad I got out of the day trading game. I would have been eviscerated today. All this on top of today being a negative macro day for the most part.

 

[1kEE]

Days like today make me glad I got out of the day trading game. I would have been eviscerated today. All this on top of today being a negative macro day for the most part.

My attempts at short-term trading weeklies/monthlies has made and lost ridiculous amounts the last three months... for a very small (as in a minor fraction of a big days movement) net gain. All my real gains are from positions I didn't mess with.

My biggest losses happened around, and right after, the quiet 250ish area. Makes sense as getting a read on short-term direction at those points is pretty much impossible.

Trading the flat, low volume days, with increasing risk each day, and chasing the momentum right after the slow period ended, was the worst for me. Chasing the momentum out of the bottom was the most profitable (yep, no surprise). Basic trading psychology, the harder you try, the bigger the losses!

 

[Irishjugg]

Look at the price
My feel for the markets makes me more money than hundreds of hours of useless analysis

Come on now. You have said some version of the same thing every day for the past month. Every day it's been nothing but random exuberance and you hoping it would go up.

Today due to a crappy website posting a no news article about model Y because electrek posts a fan concept the least informed and the automated flip out for a nice 4% gain and you have the gall to claim that you are done amazing Oracle with your 1/30 record? Did you even understand my broken clock reference? The only thing impressive about today is the random bit of dumb luck that I finally was fed up enough with your daily rambling hope to say something and that today ended up being the day your clock was right.

Everyone here knows Tesla would be and still will be going up. You saying every day that today is the day and ignoring the massive number of days you were incorrect then praising yourself for today is just too Trumpian for me to handle.. lordy.

 

[1kEE]

If you take Trendtrader and Myusername posts, and sum them, one might have some really good trading info!

If both are long, it's a buy for sure. If TrendTrader is absent and has been absent for days, and Myusername is bearish, it's gonna be rough hahah.