2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[geneclean55]

Of all the analysts out there AJ seems to have some good sources.

Careful what you wish for. His first question during CC was whether Elon was about to head to Mars courtesy of Trump.
He wasn't kidding either.

 

[Mike Smith]

Not to be offensive: Why would they release info about the Y when everyone is waiting for more info on the timing of the 3?

The market is negatively reacting to what they perceive as a delay in the final reveal if the 3 from March to July and the 'imminent cash raise/need'.
The last thing we all need is to discuss yet another model that will be available 'soon'

Everyone knows they're working on the Model Y. I don't see how it would be seen as a distraction just to show it to the public and take in anouther $250M in deposits. Obviously all production focus would remain on the M3.

 

[AlMc]

Everyone knows they're working on the Model Y. I don't see how it would be seen as a distraction just to show it to the public and take in anouther $250M in deposits. Obviously all production focus would remain on the M3.

I am totally in the opposite camp on this.
Sorry to all to bring this analogy back up
Steak=model 3 reveal or is On time in volume
Sizzle = 'talk/protype of the Y'

IMO, we need focus, focus, focus on the 3.

 

[erthquake]

Everyone knows they're working on the Model Y. I don't see how it would be seen as a distraction just to show it to the public and take in anouther $250M in deposits. Obviously all production focus would remain on the M3.

Revealing the Model Y might be a way to reduce the backlog of Model 3 reservations. If the Model Y is a hatchback/crossover, and I only had to wait 6-12 months longer than for my Model 3 (which I anticipate getting no later than next February), I would considering transferring my reservation. Though the Y likely being a more expensive car and the reduction/loss of the federal tax credit would also weigh on that decision.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Everyone knows they're working on the Model Y. I don't see how it would be seen as a distraction just to show it to the public and take in anouther $250M in deposits. Obviously all production focus would remain on the M3.

I'd see it as a distraction and question common sense behind even talking about it.
But maybe I'm unique, though I'm not from generation that heard that phrase too many times...

 

[TMSE]

Not to be offensive: Why would they release info about the Y when everyone is waiting for more info on the timing of the 3?

The market is negatively reacting to what they perceive as a delay in the final reveal if the 3 from March to July and the 'imminent cash raise/need'.
The last thing we all need is to discuss yet another model that will be available 'soon'

I agree.

1)
What could alleviate this perceived M3 delay? Actually delivering as projected, starting July, would destroy all bear thesis. But, market is always forward looking and if they some sign of progress, it will be priced in immediately. I wonder what those are.

2)
I think equity raise should be done with immediately to put this uncertainty to rest.

Meanwhile, shorts, especially on SA, can have a field day spreading their own narratives.

 

[kenliles]

I am totally in the opposite camp on this.
Sorry to all to bring this analogy back up
Steak=model 3 reveal or is On time in volume
Sizzle = 'talk/protype of the Y'

IMO, we need focus, focus, focus on the 3.

Or more succinctly
Y not, 3 for me

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Everyone knows they're working on the Model Y. I don't see how it would be seen as a distraction just to show it to the public and take in anouther $250M in deposits. Obviously all production focus would remain on the M3.

Just moving up the time frame on model 3 we had a huge drop about a year ago. I'm also in the camp that it's not only about model 3 but the ability to ramp production is all the car analysts cares about. Not AP2, not TE, not M S/X sales #, etc...

Please no Model Y, it's just more fuel for the bears. They have accepted M3 will be produced.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Just moving up the time frame on model 3 we had a huge drop about a year ago. I'm also in the camp that it's not only about model 3 but the ability to ramp production is all the car analysts cares about. Not AP2, not TE, not M S/X sales #, etc...

Please no Model Y, it's just more fuel for the bears. They have accepted M3 will be produced.

Personally I thought the early May 2016 drop in PPS has more to do with the delay in fixing the MX issues and lower than expected Q1 '16 delivery. I think we're in much better position this year, my understanding is that Elon said last week that they don't need cash raise for M3, but could do it if it's convenient so to have higher confidence. I think if the PPS stays in the 240s they may not do it.

 

[EarlyAdopter]

Having experienced autopilot on the weekend, my feelings are simple: anyone who gets into an accident using that technology as it sits is an idiot who shouldn't have a driver's license. While it is far from perfect, I was easily able to sense when it was doing something wrong, and act to correct it, and quickly learned what sort of road conditions it was prone to making mistakes in.

This is my exact feeling as well. You can so easily sense when the car is having trouble under Autopilot, and with a few hours of drive time under your belt even anticipate when it might get into trouble coming up, that I think anyone who gets into an accident using Autopilot is just as likely (or more so) to get into accidents without it.

Now, back on topic - market action!

I was sad to have missed out on the run from 250 to 280, having sold my Jan19 leaps around 250 for a nice profit (still long lots of shares - not touching those). My take here is if we see support and it moves back above 255, the last area of resistance before it broke out to 280, I'm back in with more options.

Otherwise, if it drops down to a lower level, say 220, i'll be reevaluating getting back in with leaps then.

 

[geneclean55]

Personally I thought the early May 2016 drop in PPS has more to do with the delay in fixing the MX issues and lower than expected Q1 '16 delivery. I think we're in much better position this year, my understanding is that Elon said last week that they don't need cash raise for M3, but could do it if it's convenient so to have higher confidence. I think if the PPS stays in the 240s they may not do it.

Yeah he hasn't gone off script here. He said pretty much exactly the same thing at the prior company call.

 

[ggies07]

Honestly, if the "analysts" would follow the company as close as we do, there would be no drop in price like this. Drives me nuts. Tesla gives a detailed plan and timeline for the M3 in the lastest call and then the "analysts" don't even bother with it. I hope Elon and the team nail the production ramp up to shut up the naysayers and to put a stupid look on their face.

 

[sdtslafan]

Can someone remind me of the logistics of a capital raise?

How do they set the price? I know it is based on some weighted average but how do they choose the time period? Does it have to be after they announce the capital raise or could it be retrospective. Do they usually wait for price stability to even announce a cap raise? What if there is no price stability in the near term?

Sold X of my shares today and bought 2 X Jan 19 300 Leaps for $28.50. It helped me to come off margin. I believe these LEAPS will almost certaintly either go to 0 or a very big number. I held my breath and made the decision. We'll see in 690 days.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Short interest was a bit down during first part of Feb:

2/15/2017 32,203,854
1/31/2017 34,350,2214

Read more: Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest

 

[Irishjugg]

Just moving up the time frame on model 3 we had a huge drop about a year ago. I'm also in the camp that it's not only about model 3 but the ability to ramp production is all the car analysts cares about. Not AP2, not TE, not M S/X sales #, etc...

Please no Model Y, it's just more fuel for the bears. They have accepted M3 will be produced.

Tesla has strongly hinted a few times including during the CC that the model Y unveiling would be after model 3 production. They kept mentioning "the things we have in H2" and other phrases similarly pointing out that they are sandbagging other releases until model 3 is chugging. They guided for only half of the year because they don't want to scare people with the model Y, bus, semi, and pickup capex.

 

[neroden]

Having experienced autopilot on the weekend, my feelings are simple: anyone who gets into an accident using that technology as it sits is an idiot who shouldn't have a driver's license.

Yeah, but my opinion of roughly 90% of the drivers on the road is that they shouldn't have licenses. Soooooo.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Tesla has strongly hinted a few times including during the CC that the model Y unveiling would be after model 3 production. They kept mentioning "the things we have in H2" and other phrases similarly pointing out that they are sandbagging other releases until model 3 is chugging. They guided for only half of the year because they don't want to scare people with the model Y, bus, semi, and pickup capex.

I like to see them announce the MY and cash raise like this in Sep:

"M3 starting 2K/wk production now, ramping to 4K next month. And MY design is finished, here are the prototypes. It will be even easier to ramp than M3 since it shares xy% with M3, expect it in H2 2018. We'll now open up to reservation"

Then a month later:

"M3 ramping to 4K/wk now. Also since we announced the MY we've received ##### reservations. We will now raise cash to buy/build GGF #3/ to build the MY."

 

[geneclean55]

So InsideEV scorecard comes out this Wednesday. Can we anticipate another SP dip?

I wonder if the factory shutdown will be reflected in their numbers.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Rich Ross of Evercore thinks that combination of SMA(50) at $241.09 with classic 38% retracement could indicate an end of the down leg and a start of another run: Trading Nation: Goldman takes down Tesla

 

[TMSE]

Rich Ross of Evercore thinks that combination of SMA(50) at $241.09 with classic 38% retracement could indicate an end of the down leg and a start of another run: Trading Nation: Goldman takes down Tesla

Another indicator that we might be up for another bull run is the cacophony of the bear-fest on SA. Last time it was this loud was when SP was around $180.