2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[D-egg-O]

As much as there’s a possibility of TSLA shooting to 1000 in coming year, there’s also the possibility of a combo of a recession, stock market crash, and M3 ramp delay that pushes the stock (and broader markets) down in 2018 and washes out the enthusiastic fan herd here robbing them of their option money they were so sure was going to make them rich.

Don't you go bursting our bubble.

On the one hand we shoot up to $1000 in the next 12 months. On the other we plummet to $0. Odds for each are about equal let's say. My decision (with uncertainty) tree leads to a SP of $500 in 12 months. I can live with that.

 

[JBRR]

As much as there’s a possibility of TSLA shooting to 1000 in coming year, there’s also the possibility of a combo of a recession, stock market crash, and M3 ramp delay that pushes the stock (and broader markets) down in 2018 and washes out the enthusiastic fan herd here robbing them of their option money they were so sure was going to make them rich.

 

[Gerardf]

We are a bit down in Europe (4 points )
Most markets in Asia and Europe are a bit down, macro might not help us today.

 

[avoigt]

New and exciting developments:

Electrek:

Tesla is about to come out with a new all-electric service vehicle based on the Model S and Model X vehicles, according to Jon McNeill, Tesla’s President of Global Sales and Services.

This launch in 2018 will be the opening of commercial usage for S and X. The step from using it for internal purposes and selling it to the market is indeed very small. Service EV Vehicles are a huge not to underestimate market. Also, this could be the "one more thing" and game changing moment EM referred to lately for the Semi release event.

Impact on the financial bottom line will be large.

Tesla is launching new all-electric service vehicles based on Model S and Model X next year

 

[Tslynk67]

New and exciting developments:

Electrek:

Tesla is about to come out with a new all-electric service vehicle based on the Model S and Model X vehicles, according to Jon McNeill, Tesla’s President of Global Sales and Services.

This launch in 2018 will be the opening of commercial usage for S and X. The step from using it for internal purposes and selling it to the market is indeed very small. Service EV Vehicles are a huge not to underestimate market. Also, this could be the "one more thing" and game changing moment EM referred to lately for the Semi release event.

Impact on the financial bottom line will be large.

Tesla is launching new all-electric service vehicles based on Model S and Model X next year

This is great news, but unclear to me what the product really is and whether it will be commercialised.

If they did start producing a van then I agree the impact is potentially huge.

 

[Todd Burch]

This is great news, but unclear to me what the product really is and whether it will be commercialised.

If they did start producing a van then I agree the impact is potentially huge.

Doesn't appear that it will be commercialized. It says they'll be using modified Model X/S vehicles for this.

 

[vgrinshpun]

This is great news, but unclear to me what the product really is and whether it will be commercialised.

If they did start producing a van then I agree the impact is potentially huge.

I have got similar information during the "Tesla Social" event I attended last weekend. There was no any talk about commercialization of this - just that modified MS and MX will be used for the mobile service. I am also not sure about the Electrek conclusion about MS/MX replacing the conventional vans. My understanding was that mobile service will use all of the above.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

New and exciting developments:

Electrek:

Tesla is about to come out with a new all-electric service vehicle based on the Model S and Model X vehicles, according to Jon McNeill, Tesla’s President of Global Sales and Services.

This launch in 2018 will be the opening of commercial usage for S and X. The step from using it for internal purposes and selling it to the market is indeed very small. Service EV Vehicles are a huge not to underestimate market. Also, this could be the "one more thing" and game changing moment EM referred to lately for the Semi release event.

Impact on the financial bottom line will be large.

Tesla is launching new all-electric service vehicles based on Model S and Model X next year

I would strongly caution against reading the tea leaves with a bias.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Denmark's wind turbine manufacturer Vestas will be using Tesla PowerPacks for the project in Australia.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Denmark's wind turbine manufacturer Vestas will be using Tesla PowerPacks for the project in Australia.

The Australian project will consist of 43.2 MW of wind power capacity using twelve of Vestas' V136-3.6 MW turbines, 15 MW of solar and 2 MW of battery storage.

1. I wonder if I'll ever see the day when reporters learn to use megawatt HOURS for storage
2. How can nearly 60 MW of power be paired up with only 2 MWh of storage?! Getting ready for two-minute outages?!

 

[Gerardf]

Tesla and Vestas Partner in $160 Million Australian Project

" 4 megawatt-hour Tesla lithium ion battery, all managed by Vestas’ control system."

4 MWh is indeed not a lot for so much wind & Solar. Maybe aim is stabilize net interconnection and smooth out peaks.

Various methods for connections :
Grid connection of wind power - Technical University of Denmark (DTU) | Coursera
@ 3 minutes.

Partly explained here : ReGen (NI) frequently asked questions about wind turbines and renewable energy

The wind turbines generate power by rotating a permanent magnet generator which generates three phase AC at the frequency of the turbine's rotation. The AC power from the generator is not only the wrong voltage to be connected to the local power grid, but also, as the wind speed changes so does the rotational speed of the turbine, and therefore the frequency of the power generated. The power from the generator therefore needs to be converted to DC and then fed into a special electronic device called an inverter, to ensure that it is always at the correct frequency and voltage for the local grid.

 

[Irishjugg]

Step 1 is good but let's skip to Step 10:
Continued to take personal inventory and when we were wrong promptly admitted it.

I'll start: I sold too many shares at $345 and just bought some back at $355. Now I have fewer shares. Am worth less (not same as worthless).
(oh and I bought SNAP at IPO for $21). Similar to falling off the wagon.

Oof. I feel bad for everyone who got tricked into buying SNAP.

 

[schonelucht]

1. How can nearly 60 MW of power be paired up with only 2 MWh of storage?! Getting ready for two-minute outages?!

No, it's just a play on the imbalance market. And yes, contracts are awarded in minutes at a time. For now, storage in itself is the least interesting proposition for grid scale battery storage (capacity is just too low to matter except in rare circumstances like islands). It's all about the ability to soak up and deliver power instantaneously. Wind is good in soaking up capacity (just turn the blades), but obviously not good at all at providing instant power. Batteries fix that part of the equation. Natural pairing right there.

 

[bdy0627]

Oof. I feel bad for everyone who got tricked into buying SNAP.

You mean except for the ones who bought near the bottom in August. The IPO price was a ripoff but those recent buyers are WAY up. I'm not so sure it's not going to figure out how to monetize its base at some point. We've got some teens and they and all of their friends are on SNAP nonstop. FB can't quite seem to get rid of the little guy.

 

[Navin]

Belief in technical analysis requires a persistent disbelief in science\evidence\prediction\testing, etc.

My favorite part is when people say things like 'if it shoots through 360 *convincingly* then WATCH OUT!'. Turns out usually that the 'convincingly' parts means 'if it goes on to pass 370' and the 'WATCH OUT' part means 'it will at least go through 370'. The very construction of the sentence indicates the speaker has some part of his brain that knows it's all hogwash.

Technical trading is just a set of data points - not religion and certainly discount and don’t use if you think it’s silly. Having said that - if let’s say x% of the shares in a given day are traded by folks (or computers) who trade based on technical setups - wouldn’t you want to know what factors/indicators this group is looking at to either buy or sell shares - which can influence the price movements in the stock? Not trying to convince you to believe in anything - just pointing out something that’s obvious to me.

Tesla has no real comparable market peers or competitors in the public marketplace (correlation trading is relevant but not bankable) and you cannot look at PE ratios or multiples of ebitda to value so technicals become more of a relevant factor here for me to look at vs just investing into the abyss.

 

[AlMc]

Technical trading is just a set of data points - not religion and certainly discount and don’t use if you think it’s silly. Having said that - if let’s say x% of the shares in a given day are traded by folks who trade based on technical setups - wouldn’t you want to know what factors/indicators this group is looking at to either buy or sell shares - which can influence the price movements in the stock? Not trying to convince you to believe in anything - just pointing out something that’s obvious to me.

Tesla has no real comparable market peers or competitors in the public marketplace and you cannot look at multiples of ebitda to value so technicals become more of a relevant factor here for me to look at vs just investing into the abyss.

I don't trade on TA but there are so many people/bots that do that it becomes a self fulling prophecy so I do pay attention to the what people who fully understand charting have to say.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Tsla ER November 1st

 

[MartinAustin]

Tsla ER November 1st

Nice. It seems to be getting earlier and earlier in the quarter

 

[vgrinshpun]

The Australian project will consist of 43.2 MW of wind power capacity using twelve of Vestas' V136-3.6 MW turbines, 15 MW of solar and 2 MW of battery storage.

1. I wonder if I'll ever see the day when reporters learn to use megawatt HOURS for storage
2. How can nearly 60 MW of power be paired up with only 2 MWh of storage?! Getting ready for two-minute outages?!

The Battery Energy Storage (BES) has energy capacity (MWh) and power rating (MW). It is not very intuitive, but to have intuitive analogy, imagine a water tank and the out-flowing pipe. The size of water tank is analogous to energy capacity, while the rate of flow through the pipe is analogous to power rating. So power rating tells you how fast the BES system can be drained, while energy capacity tells you how much energy is stored in the battery.

The article did not mention MWh capacity - just that the battery has 2MW **power** rating.

I think it is time to pull one of these "OOPS" pictures.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

The Battery Energy Storage (BES) has energy capacitty (MWh) and power rating (MW). It is not very intuitive, but to have intuitive analogy, imagine a water tank and the out-flowing pipe. The size of water tank is analogous to energy capacity, while the rate of flow through the pipe is analogous to power rating. So power rating tells you how fast the BES system can be drained, while energy capacity tells you how much energy is stored in the battery.

The article did not mention MWh capacity - just that the battery has 2MW **power** rating.

I thing it is time to pull one of these "OOPS" pictures.

I stand corrected on #1. Electrek says 4 MWh for capacity... still very low, but I guess storage is not the goal with this project as explained below:

No, it's just a play on the imbalance market. And yes, contracts are awarded in minutes at a time. For now, storage in itself is the least interesting proposition for grid scale battery storage (capacity is just too low to matter except in rare circumstances like islands). It's all about the ability to soak up and deliver power instantaneously. Wind is good in soaking up capacity (just turn the blades), but obviously not good at all at providing instant power. Batteries fix that part of the equation. Natural pairing right there.