So we can expect a $5 goldman downgrade in the morning?
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So we can expect a $5 goldman downgrade in the morning?
I wouldn't be surprised in the least.
Yes.
Here is what we can expect in the next 18 hours.
A ws analyst downgrade
Some new hit piece
Some rumor that seems sensible but is likely just overblown facts.
360 is the line in the sand
Here is what we can expect in the next 18 hours.
A ws analyst downgrade
Some new hit piece
Some rumor that seems sensible but is likely just overblown facts.
360 is the line in the sand
Don't hold your breath expecting to see anything positive cross thier banner, its against thier agenda
In the mean time this is what happened today....
S&P: All-Time High
Dow: All-Time High
Nasdaq: All-Time High
Global Dow: All-Time High
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
JBG: The origin of the Li-ion battery fires is the flammable organic-liquid electrolyte and the graphite anode. If the battery is charged too rapidly, metallic lithium is plated on the graphite, and lithium does not wet or is not wet by the electrolyte. As a result, on repeated charging, lithium dendrites (whiskers) form and grow across the liquid electrolyte to the cathode and create a short-circuit, which heats the battery and ignites the electrolyte. If the battery manufacturer does not incorporate a control of the rate of charge, fires follow.
The dendrites are also responsible for the type of degradation that Jeff Dahn looks at.
What I meant by "maybe" is that I'm not sure but that the types of problems you are concerned about could be physically impossiblę with the new cell type. Also I think that Tesla can (and will) do some development and testing and development of production equipment in parallel.
I'm feeling pretty good about the current SP. We are higher than we were at the end of September, before delivery numbers which showed delay in Model 3. Since then, nothing but hit pieces offset by some upgrades. Everyone "expects the worst" on the ramp after the warning from Elon, and we are still around 360. I'm confident that when news comes out that production hell is over, and we are really on the production ramp, the SP will hit 400 and hopefully keep going. I can understand keeping a little cash on the side for a 10-20% surprise dip, but I certainly wouldn't be counting on it. I recently sold 10 Puts with 350SP for mid-December, and 10 with 320 SP for mid January, and I'm pretty confident I will just pocket the cash and not have to roll them or get them assigned to me.
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MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Agree! Excellent!
Fred has a nice summary.
This should (but probably won't) put the last nail in the coffin of "Tesla's Grohmann purchase will cause massively higher GF production" argument:
Tesla’s former VP of Production talks ‘secret second factory floor’ and vertical integration
<snip>
The executive wrote about the not-so-secret second floor of Tesla’s Fremont factory:
“Unknown to most visitors, the factory’s “secret” second floor built many of Tesla’s battery, power electronics, and drive-train systems. It was home to some of the most advanced manufacturing and automation systems in the company. Some of the robots moved at such high speeds that their arms needed to be built from carbon fiber instead of steel.”
I say that it is “not-so-secret” because while Tesla rarely talks about its operations on that second floor, it used to allow some people, like investors and analysts, up there before.
Former Dougherty & Company analyst Andrea James talked about it last year:
“In the early days (~2012), when we used to tour the factory, we were allowed to go up to the second floor (where Tesla houses its secretive battery development group) […] I was one of the first to be allowed on that second floor. I wasn’t allowed to take pictures, but I got to tour it and see the floor, and see the machines that they had to build. Elon talks about “the machine that builds the machine” and you know – you’d look at these parts and you couldn’t procure these parts. They had to make these parts.”
She recalled emailing Tesla CTO JB Straubel after the tour to let him know how impressed she was by what they were doing: “tears came to my eyes when I was on the second floor. I can’t believe what you guys are doing” she said. Straubel responded: “Yeah, I don’t think people realize what is going on here”.
In his post, Reichow also explained that people don’t understand what they are doing there, like manufacturing high-voltage cables, displays, fuses, and other smaller systems....
<snip>
TrendTrader007
Active Member
i should not have been buying more this AM but i did
sign me up for TA (TSLA Anonymous)
sign me up for TA (TSLA Anonymous)
Sparky
Member
Step 1 is good but let's skip to Step 10:
Continued to take personal inventory and when we were wrong promptly admitted it.
I'll start: I sold too many shares at $345 and just bought some back at $355. Now I have fewer shares. Am worth less (not same as worthless).
(oh and I bought SNAP at IPO for $21). Similar to falling off the wagon.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I think we'll get the "bottlenecks resolved" tweet/announcement/hint before Semi reveal event, and if not, semi reveal will get pushed again. I don't think Semi reveal would happen if Model 3 ramp wasn't on track.
Step 1: You’ve admitted you are powerless over TSLA
11 steps to go,
You are not alone, but In the ultimate irony,
it helps to drink...
Heavily
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Maybe isn't good enough for mass production. There "may be" new problems that we don't know about, that we have never contemplated before. We don't know what we don't know.
18 months of testing isn't good enough to switch from tried and true tech to something else that doesn't have years of testing.
You don't bet the house on "maybe." Especially when the house is not on fire.
Maybe Faraday Future has no other choice. Tesla does.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
TrendTrader007
Active Member
Do you ever buy food? There is a big world out there beyond TSLA. I know it is hard to believe but I have heard that it exists.
jhm
Well-Known Member
As much as there’s a possibility of TSLA shooting to 1000 in coming year, there’s also the possibility of a combo of a recession, stock market crash, and M3 ramp delay that pushes the stock (and broader markets) down in 2018 and washes out the enthusiastic fan herd here robbing them of their option money they were so sure was going to make them rich.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
So there's been all this talk about how 360 is an important price and that if TSLA got there then there would be a "breakout". Well, it got to 363 today. It there was a breakout I must have missed it.
Does this sort of thing actually burst anybody's bubble or is it just on to the next set of tea leaves (or triangles)?
Does this sort of thing actually burst anybody's bubble or is it just on to the next set of tea leaves (or triangles)?
No, you got it all wrong. When 360 vehicles have been delivered! Any day now! Super breakout!
But kidding aside - there is TA and there are fundamentals and TA says its ready to breakout and fundamentals say any day now. Both together could be a big upside and scare off the weaker shorts. Ever since I test drove the Model 3 (two weeks ago) I am just super excited about what it is going to be like when the rampup s-curve speedup materializes like it did back then for Model S and then Model X, and then finally more people besides me get to see it in person and get excited too. Tesla did say they wanted to have Model 3 in the stores by end of year.
Sure exciting times !
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Belief in technical analysis requires a persistent disbelief in science\evidence\prediction\testing, etc.
My favorite part is when people say things like 'if it shoots through 360 *convincingly* then WATCH OUT!'. Turns out usually that the 'convincingly' parts means 'if it goes on to pass 370' and the 'WATCH OUT' part means 'it will at least go through 370'. The very construction of the sentence indicates the speaker has some part of his brain that knows it's all hogwash.
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