2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[smak]

Is there another explanation behind the VIN's being 500+ with only half those cars produced?

If they do scramble the VIN's to give out less information, couldn't they just have released VIN 5,000 so that would be the end of it.

It seems counter productive to make people think their are 500+ out there, when there's only 220.

 

[elasalle]

Tesla misses the mark on Model 3 production - by a lot

I did not read the article. But the headline is a fact. Way to go ...

 

[geneclean55]

My WAG is we bounce off channel bottom tmrw around 330.
If not, then a 200ma touch in the next few days at around 310.

 

[myusername]

I did not read the article. But the headline is a fact. Way to go ...

don't read the article... watch the video... when money.cnn show's a clip of the simpson's monorail episode.

 

[AlMc]

My WAG is we bounce off channel bottom tmrw around 330.
If not, then a 200ma touch in the next few days at around 310.

My major buy point is sub $310 which means we probably won't see it.

 

[geneclean55]

Aren't we due some news on new Gigafactory locations?

 

[zdriver]

Aren't we due some news on new Gigafactory locations?

I can provide a (small) Project TIM update - it appears there's still town hall meetings occurring, most recently a week or two ago. Someone said it was US Steel, but being a stock I day trade from time to time, I know I would've heard about that if it was the case...

 

[TrendTrader007]

Nah. The shortfall on 3 production can’t be spun positively no matter what else is said or done; it’s a shortfall. We all know it. Most of us here don’t care why because as you say it matters not down the road, but those looking to spew more FUD get to carry on for another quarter. They should whoop it up and enjoy while they can because most of us here are already or will be laughing all the way to the bank and then over to 007’s house for that big party he’ll be throwing.

Tot

Nah. The shortfall on 3 production can’t be spun positively no matter what else is said or done; it’s a shortfall. We all know it. Most of us here don’t care why because as you say it matters not down the road, but those looking to spew more FUD get to carry on for another quarter. They should whoop it up and enjoy while they can because most of us here are already or will be laughing all the way to the bank and then over to 007’s house for that big party he’ll be throwing.

you got it bud!
Anne Boleyn will be totally thrilled to have you guys over! She loves the neat little house we recently bought just a couple of weeks before buying MX. Infact she loves the car as much as she loves the house

 

[Alketi]

1134 indeed.

Well, at least we know Tesla was telling the truth for when they said they were entirely focused on production and couldn't spare a single car for the the North American Car of the Year award.

Elon just can't stop giving internal, perfect-execution goals as public guidance. Think of the reaction today if three months ago he had said: "The ramp is going to start very slowly while we iron out production issues. We don't expect to ship more than a few hundred this quarter while we focus on quality and precision in our automated process."

But instead he gave a perfect-execution exponential as public guidance.

I'm almost positive he does it on some level as motivation for the troops. No one is working overtime to ship 200 cars. Folks work overtime when they're in danger of missing a deadline and enduring public failure. I know this isn't much solace if you're trading this stock short-term, based on anticipated news.

For those who haven't read Ashley Vance's biography, this is the most relevant quote I can find:

In regards to time, Musk may well set more aggressive delivery targets for very difficult-to-make products than any executive in history. Both his employees and the public have found this to be one of the more jarring aspects of Musk’s character. “Elon has always been optimistic,” Kevin Brogan (SpaceX) said. “That’s the nice word. He can be a downright liar about when things need to get done. He will pick the most aggressive time schedule imaginable assuming everything goes right, and then accelerate it by assuming that everyone can work harder.”

Regarding the VINs. I don't consider what Tesla is currently doing to be VIN scrambling. To me this is just shipping out of order. I'll call it VIN scrambling if Tesla doesn't reserve 1135 as their next VIN.

What are we drinking tonight @ValueAnalyst? I'm drinking Johnny Walker. And this isn't my first.

 

[RABaby]

Tot

you got it bud!
Anne Boleyn will be totally thrilled to have you guys over! She loves the neat little house we recently bought just a couple of weeks before buying MX. Infact she loves the car as much as she loves the house

Did you buy the house on margin?

 

[Mkorpal]

Is there another explanation behind the VIN's being 500+ with only half those cars produced?

If they do scramble the VIN's to give out less information, couldn't they just have released VIN 5,000 so that would be the end of it.

It seems counter productive to make people think their are 500+ out there, when there's only 220.

Sure, if cars were produced but not deliverable without some re-work, maybe they are not being counted. While cars being produced now in the 500 range are deliverable.

That may explain the rumor of many cars existing, but the news few were produced.

 

[D-egg-O]

Sure, if cars were produced but not deliverable without some re-work, maybe they are not being counted. While cars being produced now in the 500 range are deliverable.

That may explain the rumor of many cars existing, but the news few were produced.

aka WIP. Somewhere between body in white/powertrain assembly at GF1 to final QC.

 

[dc_h]

Sure, if cars were produced but not deliverable without some re-work, maybe they are not being counted. While cars being produced now in the 500 range are deliverable.

That may explain the rumor of many cars existing, but the news few were produced.

Exactly. At least 500 are in some stage of production or completion and likely closer to 1000. I don't see this as a model X issue, but - to two week lag on the ramp.
I do think 320 is fairly likely. I was expecting deliveries over 27,000 and slightbetter 3 news. I expect delivery reports to shoot up in the next two weeks and design center to open in the next week.
Did anyone else get email from Tesla asking to confirm your profile for upcoming messaging?

 

[dc_h]

Did anyone get email from Tesla today asking you to confirm your profile to get ready for Model 3 communications? This seems to imply configuration will open soon.

 

[Mkorpal]

Exactly. At least 500 are in some stage of production or completion and likely closer to 1000. I don't see this as a model X issue, but - to two week lag on the ramp.
I do think 320 is fairly likely. I was expecting deliveries over 27,000 and slightbetter 3 news. I expect delivery reports to shoot up in the next two weeks and design center to open in the next week.
Did anyone else get email from Tesla asking to confirm your profile for upcoming messaging?

I should note that is nothing but a plausible explanation. Equally as plausible is they are randomizing VINs to obscure production and they have 260 done and rumors were simply not true.

 

[justdoit]

Wow. Wonder if this will move the needle tomorrow https://i.redd.it/avqa9aur9jpz.jpg

 

[geneclean55]

I guess no...
but you gotta love the timing of these "leaks"

 

[30seconds]

Pretty immaterial if Tesla has a 3 year and 9 month head start with model 3 or a 3 year and 7 month head start over the rest of the auto industry. Or maybe it's at least a 5 year head start.

If you looked at the Model S timelines then you would surmise that Tesla has at least a 7 or 8 year head start before any real competitor will show up.

What matters is that Tesla is innovating at a faster pace and leveraging scale faster than the industry can catch.

The Model 3 is, of course, the latest proof of this as no other automaker can produce anything near as compelling and mostly with some hand waving about battery supply and charging networks

But the semi is right there. Tesla has the tools to make a compelling Semi EV (engineering, batteries, charging, software) well before anyone else has them put together.

It's the end of 2017. Not a single major automaker has even announced a viable plan to try to compete with Tesla. At best they think a product strategy is sufficient.

 

[Skryll]

I can provide a (small) Project TIM update - it appears there's still town hall meetings occurring, most recently a week or two ago. Someone said it was US Steel, but being a stock I day trade from time to time, I know I would've heard about that if it was the case...

Thats spacex not tesla motors

 

[vgrinshpun]

I've checked 100+ VINs higher than 1134 - as of today they were not registered in NHTSA data base yet.

My current working hypothesis is that VINs are probably entered into the NHTSA d-base as cars are entering factory production/production queue. It appears that about 1100-260=840 M3s are in the various stages of production/production queue. Per the today's press release Tesla is "addressing" production bottlenecks, so it is reasonable to expect them **not** registering additional VINs until these bottlenecks are resolved and Tesla is confident that these 840 or so in-production/queue cars are close enough to completion so they can allow more cars to enter production. So it seems that monitoring additional VINs registering in NHTSA d-base could indicate a point in time when the bottlenecks are resolved and cars currently in production or production queue clear.

I will be checking next 100+ VINs daily until we possibly get clearer picture on the process of registration of VINs with NHTSA. Please PM me if there are volunteers to expand the daily VIN check to may be 1000 VINs. Checking about 100 VINs and documenting results in google spreadsheet created by @austinEV takes about 15 mins of tedious work.

I will be starting a separate thread on VIN registration in NHTSA d-base.