2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[zdriver]

3). MX is nearly as popular as MS

Hey wait a second, I thought Model X was a colossal failure, and still was even just a few months ago?
(based on many "wise" comments posted all over the intertubes suggesting that it should be canceled... still, even now, so that they can "focus on Model 3")

 

[myusername]

there is virtually no reason for this not to sell off tomorrow. if this does not trade at or below $316 I'll be shocked... without a total reversal tomorrow... and a downward continuation... the continuation of the previous downtrend is $316/317 tomorrow... and if that happens... the longer term picture once again puts it back into the $200s... and why not?... $300 on this is still $50b... for an auto company that's going to have a hard ramp over the next 2 years with every other auto manufacturer joining the game... that is now the story.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

The mood on Reddit is that TSLA will fall tomorrow.

Based on the stock market’s tendency to behave unpredictably and inflict pain on all sides, I’m going to guess that TSLA goes up and that people will be tearing their hair out as to why.

 

[smak]

If things go well over the next month, I wonder if Elon will tweet something, or keep mum like he has since 7/28?

 

[Reciprocity]

You could look at this minor model 3 miss in two ways. The pessimistic way.. Tesla is 1 month behind on the ramp. But that would assume no progress was made to identify and fix issues. It seems clear that Tesla has identified the issues so I would think the optimistic view would be more accurate. The optimistic view would be missing by 1300 cars for Sept is easily made up by years end and really has zero impact on the greater goal ok 5k/w run rate exciting 2017 on the way to 10k/w run rate in 2018.

So in short, buy the f**king dip and be thankful you have another opportunity at cheap shares. Most definitely an advice.

 

[TMSE]

If things go well over the next month, I wonder if Elon will tweet something, or keep mum like he has since 7/28?

This is what I like to see: Elon tweeting a picture of 1,000th M3 coming off of production line sometime within the next two weeks.

 

[generalenthu]

The mood on Reddit is that TSLA will fall tomorrow.

Based on the stock market’s tendency to behave unpredictably and inflict pain on all sides, I’m going to guess that TSLA goes up and that people will be tearing their hair out as to why.

That's nothing compared to what you'd see if you venture into Twitter.

 

[Krugerrand]

You are absolutely correct, *IF* Tesla can not deliver the 3s in timely fashion. However, if I am confident that the bugs have been worked out on my automated assembly line I would say open the design studio to the first reservationists that want LR3 with PUP.

If I am not confident I can (or have) sorted out my station issues then certainly I am not adding ammo for more bearish sentiment.

Except clearly there are more employees to get their cars yet than 260?! No reason to open the design studio until most employees have their cars and have been able to use them for a time period to make sure everything is up to snuff. Very little time will be required to wait between the opening of the studio and first customers deciding what they want. I imagine several thousand of those early customers know exactly what will be available and what they want to order or if they want to defer.

 

[smak]

You could look at this minor model 3 miss in two ways. The pessimistic way.. Tesla is 1 month behind on the ramp. But that would assume no progress was made to identify and fix issues. It seems clear that Tesla has identified the issues so I would think the optimistic view would be more accurate. The optimistic view would be missing by 1300 cars for Sept is easily made up by years end and really has zero impact on the greater goal ok 5k/w run rate exciting 2017 on the way to 10k/w run rate in 2018.

So in short, buy the f**king dip and be thankful you have another opportunity at cheap shares. Most definitely an advice.

Also, for the reservation owners, nothing's late until they slip from their 3 month window.

Just like there's not a problem with the software until non employees get the car, and there's a problem with the software.

I know this isn't how a lot of people look at it, but they are saying Nov-Jan for me. Doing the math on Elon's stated ramp up, and where I think I am in line, I was thinking Thanksgiving. That means that I can get it 9 weeks after that and still be on time.

 

[Navin]

Tesla Model 3 Might Already be Cannibalizing Model S Sales

Another reason the Tesla Model 3 may eat into Model S sales

Actionable Trading Ideas, Real Time News, Financial Insight | Benzinga

 

[Reciprocity]

Tesla Model 3 Might Already be Cannibalizing Model S Sales

Another reason the Tesla Model 3 may eat into Model S sales

Actionable Trading Ideas, Real Time News, Financial Insight | Benzinga

Based on the record breaking quarter for model S and x I would say you might have a problem with them canabolizing model 3 orders.

 

[AlMc]

Except clearly there are more employees to get their cars yet than 260?! No reason to open the design studio until most employees have their cars and have been able to use them for a time period to make sure everything is up to snuff. Very little time will be required to wait between the opening of the studio and first customers deciding what they want. I imagine several thousand of those early customers know exactly what will be available and what they want to order or if they want to defer.

I agree with the ^^concept.^^

My reasoning for announcing opening the design studio *today* for LR PUP early reservation holders was to add extra weight to the concept that the slight delay in the '3' ramp should not be seen as what happened with the X ramp.

IMO opinion it would have mitigated some of the AH SP drop and helped mitigate some of the bear articles we will be reading in the short term.

Now, I do acknowledge that this will have little affect on the long term SP of TSLA and it may, in fact, give people a buying opportunity if the SP drops for long term holdings.

I will drop this discussion as the time has past for that language to be put in the statement. Just my musings of what IR may have added to the statement.

 

[neroden]

Yeah, you're not looking at the huge numbers of deductions allowed on corporate taxes in the US and not in other countries. The effective US corporate tax rate is actually lower than the effective rate of most of the countries on that list.

I've also learned about some of the specific loopholes used for tax evasion by the largest companies. Apple pretends that its US patents (invented by US employees and issued by the US government) are owned by an Irish subsidiary, and then pretends that all of their income from sales in the US has to go in onerous patent fees (which Apple sets and which are deductible from US income) to this Irish subsidiary.

This is basically tax fraud, and there are actually some rumblings that the courts may start treating it as such. Cutting Apple's taxes to reward it for tax fraud is inappropriate.

 

[SBenson]

Guys, can you please take the tax rate stuff at least to the General Discussion thread?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

there is virtually no reason for this not to sell off tomorrow. if this does not trade at or below $316 I'll be shocked... without a total reversal tomorrow... and a downward continuation... the continuation of the previous downtrend is $316/317 tomorrow... and if that happens... the longer term picture once again puts it back into the $200s... and why not?... $300 on this is still $50b... for an auto company that's going to have a hard ramp over the next 2 years with every other auto manufacturer joining the game... that is now the story.

View attachment 251410

I know enough about technical analysis to know that that's some quality horseshoe.

 

[neroden]

BTW, M3 delivery is still on going, new VIN 420 just spotted, it's not like MX in Jan 2016 when it went completely MIA:

Pictures of production Model 3s

So, VIN scrambling is confirmed. No way they got from 220 to 420 between Saturday and today unless they're issuing VINs out of order to confound VIN-counters.

 

[Krugerrand]

I agree with the ^^concept.^^

My reasoning for announcing opening the design studio *today* for LR PUP early reservation holders was to add extra weight to the concept that the slight delay in the '3' ramp should not be seen as what happened with the X ramp.

IMO opinion it would have mitigated some of the AH SP drop and helped mitigate some of the bear articles we will be reading in the short term.

Now, I do acknowledge that this will have little affect on the long term SP of TSLA and it may, in fact, give people a buying opportunity if the SP drops for long term holdings.

I will drop this discussion as the time has past for that language to be put in the statement. Just my musings of what IR may have added to the statement.

Nah. The shortfall on 3 production can’t be spun positively no matter what else is said or done; it’s a shortfall. We all know it. Most of us here don’t care why because as you say it matters not down the road, but those looking to spew more FUD get to carry on for another quarter. They should whoop it up and enjoy while they can because most of us here are already or will be laughing all the way to the bank and then over to 007’s house for that big party he’ll be throwing.

 

[myusername]

I know enough about technical analysis to know that that's some quality horseshoe.

Tesla misses the mark on Model 3 production - by a lot

 

[Sudre]

My take on the M3 ramp is they did complete the line and put things in slow but full motion on the 26th. When they did this they discovered there were a few bottlenecks.... hence why the announcement said there are bottlenecks. Bottlenecks do not mean the end of the world.

A bottleneck just means that there is a spot in the line that does not go as quickly as was expected by engineering when the line was designed on a computer. It could be something as simple as a seat install taking 10 seconds longer than expected. That 10 seconds is a LOT when you are trying to crank out 250 cars a day (at first). It basically shuts down the line because there is not enough room to queue up a bunch of cars behind it. If they were expecting the seat install to take 30 seconds (this a just an example folks) then you can see that every 3 seats drops a car into queue. Add to that maybe the dash is taking an extra 40 seconds and things start getting annoying for engineering.

Bottleneck issues are the good ones to have. Unlike redesigning doors or gaskets, there are a few solutions and Tesla will look at them all and pick what they feel will work the best. Maybe simply adding an extra worker at the station fixes it. Maybe they split/extend the line and have two seat install stations so two cars gets seats at the same time. Maybe they extend the line and have the seat set in place then advance to another point to torque down the screws. Either way it will require a little rework in the line but nothing major.

 

[neroden]

I will remind people that I was expecting to see the first Model 3 delivered in September (not July). This situation isn't really a surprise to anyone who's used to Musk's perennial excess optimism. The only real news is that they're scrambling VIN number allocation. Which is a good fact to know.

Again, as I've said many times, the Q4 deliveries are where it gets interesting, and the Q1 2018 deliveries are the number which is certain to be significant and impressive.

Maybe I'll get my buying opportunity.