2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[racer26]

Regarding the RHD argument for UK-price hike delay:

We've had reports from the factory floor that say RHD and LHD vehicles are mixed on the line, no need to stop things to produce one configuration or the other (which makes sense - there arent that many part differences apart from the dashboard).

 

[AlMc]

Regarding the RHD argument for UK-price hike delay:

We've had reports from the factory floor that say RHD and LHD vehicles are mixed on the line, no need to stop things to produce one configuration or the other (which makes sense - there arent that many part differences apart from the dashboard).

Agreed. My point was that if they 'need' to fill their 'Brit quarter' of deliveries then there would be a savings on the transport of these vehicles.

 

[Mkorpal]

The extension to "free" supercharged cars could be as simple as needing an extra few weeks to build and implement the payment system.

 

[ohmman]

The extension to "free" supercharged cars could be as simple as needing an extra few weeks to build and implement the payment system.

It's also possible that they saw a marked uptick in orders in December due to this form of manufactured scarcity. Extending a couple of weeks could continue the torrent (though not as strongly, since most of those who were close were likely to order before the first deadline). It is a cheap (right now) sales technique.

As an aside, I call it a form of artificial or manufactured scarcity. That seems slightly off. It's not FOMO either. Thoughts on what this type of marketing psychology would be called?

 

[dennis]

I think that Tesla is pulling the "demand lever" to sell out the entire quarter in advance. I think they are close.

The other thing to consider is that with less downtime in Q1 Tesla can produce more vehicles. They need to fill a larger pipe.

 

[JRP3]

I would like to make a feedback point for @AudobonB. The links posted by AlMc about rolled out AP2 being a lesser version of AP1 options should indeed have been a cross post as it has a chance of affecting the share price. Discussions on the implications should happen only here though, but I don't remember seeing the actual link there. Then again a few reports on china battery requirements and Inside EV reporting on electric car uptake should have been reported in the SP thread for quick recap on actual news that are relevant for people who only want the recap and don't want to delve into the discussions like the long debate on V3 supercharging. Also, the extension of unlimited supercharging orders by 2 weeks should have gone through the other thread as it has implications on demand and therefore share price and is news (even though I saw it first on twitter).

Just to make the clear distinction between the two threads that the news worthy posts with facts and details should be on the other thread and quoted here for discussing ad nauseam.

Not according to the moderator: 2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

Some further examples/clarification from Audubon would probably be helpful for all to make this work as intended.

 

[1kEE]

If the delivery numbers come today, at what time should we expect them?

I've been checking this regularly just for fun:

Press Releases | Tesla Motors

 

[Alketi]

The extension to the Brits on the price increase, while costing TM a few bucks, could easily be seen as filling up production spaces of RHD vehicles that would fill up spots on a transport ship and save a few bucks on transportation costs.

Well done. This is the first explanation I've heard that fits both Tesla's claim of excessive demand and counterintuitively extending a price "reduction" in the face of excess demand.

If the U.K. bought so many vehicles that they filled up one transport and spilled a few cars into another transport, then from Tesla's perspective they'd rather fill the second transport than send it over "mostly" empty.

 

[tinm]

Dear Tesla:

It would be very good if TSLA passed 300 in 2017 and never went lower again. Please execute brilliantly.

Signed, 2012 Investor

 

[MitchJi]

[I'm still kind of baffled as to whether this thread or the other one is the most like the short term price changes TSLA investor thread but maybe it'll become clear over the next few days.]

Not according to the moderator: 2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

Some further examples/clarification from Audubon would probably be helpful for all to make this work as intended.

If his intentions require very much additional effort or complicated explanations my prediction is that it won't work.

My first prediction for 2017 is that I don't believe it's going to work well. I wish predicting the SP was this easy! The only difference I've noticed so far is that I need to check two threads instead of one. I don't see how that is an improvement.

 

[3Victoria]

Perhaps this thread should receive everything, and some posts be copied to the other as a summary thread -- with link back to this thread. That would make the second thread a great review and reference thread.

 

[1kEE]

Perhaps this thread should receive everything, and some posts be copied to the other as a summary thread -- with link back to this thread. That would make the second thread a great review and reference thread.

That's an idea... for example, there's got to be like 10 posts here to the effect of "when will the production numbers come out". When they finally do, someone posts a link to the in the other thread, and we run back here and bicker for the next few hours about the implications.

I'm assuming that the way it's supposed to work?

 

[3Victoria]

When they finally do, someone posts a link to the in the other thread, and we run back here and bicker for the next few hours about the implications.

Yes, then I can scan the other thread, find that post, and follow the link here for the beginning of the associated discussion.

 

[A4KTT]

The only difference I've noticed so far is that I need to check two threads instead of one. I don't see how that is an improvement.

Ditto.

 

[MitchJi]

1 Big Solar Trend to Watch in 2017 -- The Motley Fool

1 Big Solar Trend to Watch in 2017
After years of solar panels becoming commoditized, it's time for efficiency to take center stage.
Efficiency is now the name of the game in the solar industry and leading manufacturers will spend the next few years moving beyond commodity silicon solar panels to higher-efficiency technology. SunPower Corporation has long led the industry in efficiency and with its X-Series product exceeding 23% efficiency that leadership position won't end soon. But others are starting to catch up.

Trina Solar recently announced a new record of 22.61% for its mono-PERC cell technology, something others will follow. Canadian Solar is another major manufacturer moving forward with mono-PERC technology, and Tesla is launching high-efficiency panels this year with Panasonic's HIT technology. The world of solar energy is about to get a lot more efficient.
<Snip>
But the cost/efficiency dynamic is changing. Solar panel and overall system costs have come down so far that even a 100-basis-point improvement in panel efficiency can lower a system's cost per watt by 5% or more. And if that efficiency is combined with lower long-term degradation, as it is with SunPolkwer's panels, the impact on cost per kWh can be even higher. So, manufacturers finally have an incentive to increase efficiency and lower costs.
<Snip>
Tesla's efficiency play
The efficiency dynamic isn't lost on Tesla's SolarCity, which is building a plant in Buffalo, New York, to make high-efficiency solar panels. Management has said they expect efficiency to be over 20% when the product launches with 22% panel efficiency on the horizon.

Since Tesla is installing mostly small rooftop systems, the investment in efficiency makes sense. It leverages the company's sales and installation costs and puts more watts of solar production on each roof.
<Snip>
Jockeying for position in solar efficiency
Every major manufacturer is trying to improve its efficiency to differentiate itself and 2017 will likely be a transitional year. A great deal of how the industry progresses in the year ahead will depend on if Tesla can make its products as planned, and how SunPower's strategy is played out. Which company makes the right strategic moves in improving efficiency will see a lot of upside in coming years.

IMO one of Tesla's primary strengths is making brilliant strategic decisions!

 

[Ameliorate]

Perhaps this thread should receive everything, and some posts be copied to the other as a summary thread -- with link back to this thread. That would make the second thread a great review and reference thread.

I like it, I was thinking everything relevant was going to end up getting cross posted anyways.

 

[MitchJi]

Perhaps this thread should receive everything, and some posts be copied to the other as a summary thread -- with link back to this thread. That would make the second thread a great review and reference thread.

That would eliminate having to check two threads (+).

But who's going to do the copying?! (-)

 

[pz1975]

That's an idea... for example, there's got to be like 10 posts here to the effect of "when will the production numbers come out". When they finally do, someone posts a link to the in the other thread, and we run back here and bicker for the next few hours about the implications.

I'm assuming that the way it's supposed to work?

Agree. And maybe only a mod (and a few of the more senior posters) could be allowed to post to that other thread. It would act as a summary of relevant news items/tweets/articles that may affect stock price.

 

[moe.salih]

1 Big Solar Trend to Watch in 2017 -- The Motley Fool

1 Big Solar Trend to Watch in 2017
After years of solar panels becoming commoditized, it's time for efficiency to take center stage.
Efficiency is now the name of the game in the solar industry and leading manufacturers will spend the next few years moving beyond commodity silicon solar panels to higher-efficiency technology. SunPower Corporation has long led the industry in efficiency and with its X-Series product exceeding 23% efficiency that leadership position won't end soon. But others are starting to catch up.

Trina Solar recently announced a new record of 22.61% for its mono-PERC cell technology, something others will follow. Canadian Solar is another major manufacturer moving forward with mono-PERC technology, and Tesla is launching high-efficiency panels this year with Panasonic's HIT technology. The world of solar energy is about to get a lot more efficient.
<Snip>
But the cost/efficiency dynamic is changing. Solar panel and overall system costs have come down so far that even a 100-basis-point improvement in panel efficiency can lower a system's cost per watt by 5% or more. And if that efficiency is combined with lower long-term degradation, as it is with SunPolkwer's panels, the impact on cost per kWh can be even higher. So, manufacturers finally have an incentive to increase efficiency and lower costs.
<Snip>
Tesla's efficiency play
The efficiency dynamic isn't lost on Tesla's SolarCity, which is building a plant in Buffalo, New York, to make high-efficiency solar panels. Management has said they expect efficiency to be over 20% when the product launches with 22% panel efficiency on the horizon.

Since Tesla is installing mostly small rooftop systems, the investment in efficiency makes sense. It leverages the company's sales and installation costs and puts more watts of solar production on each roof.
<Snip>
Jockeying for position in solar efficiency
Every major manufacturer is trying to improve its efficiency to differentiate itself and 2017 will likely be a transitional year. A great deal of how the industry progresses in the year ahead will depend on if Tesla can make its products as planned, and how SunPower's strategy is played out. Which company makes the right strategic moves in improving efficiency will see a lot of upside in coming years.

IMO one of Tesla's primary strengths is making brilliant strategic decisions!

Off topic: Blue is really hard to read on the dark theme. Please keep this in mind when using custom colors. Thanks.

 

[MikeC]

I don't see how extending free Supercharging and the UK increase would be anything but a demand generator. Remember we were supposed to exit Q4 at a run rate of 2400/week. There's been nothing to say one way or the other if actual production has increased to more than 2000/week (although there was the post about a recent factory tour still reporting 2000/week.)

Hopefully, the rate really is closer to 2400 now and the reason they are extending free Supercharging and the U.K. price increase is in order to be sure they do not become demand-constrained.