2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[NOLA_Mike]

If you follow Silicon Valley at VC level, all the rage right now is Augmented Reality (AR) and Virtual Reality (VR)... I know through the grape vine that Musk was debating current AR/VR tech in autopiliot team meetings way back more than an year ago. I haven't heard anything after that, nor do I know any detail. All I know is that Musk was interested in that tech. This was later proven out with public reports that Tesla hired hololens designer. I feel reluctant to hype this up. But I believe the HUD will be something truly ground breaking. Probably far ahead of anything out there, even outside of cars. I think it will propel some crazy amount of sales. But, it's all just pure speculation on my part at this point.

I, on the other hand, don't believe HUD will ever show up in the Model S. I think it would take a fairly major redesign of the whole upper dash area without it looking like an aftermarket add on and this would be too big a distraction from Model 3 ramp up. I believe HUD will show up first on Model 3.

But, I could be very wrong...

Mike

 

[AlMc]

This is a 'meh' Q4 delivery number. Another quarter where both bulls and bears have something to focus on to make their case. I am still waiting for another 'reckless growth' quarter.

I am glad I bought protective puts (J 13 $200s). I will be happy to be wrong if we don't see a dip towards $205 tomorrow. Anything under that and I will add J19 Leaps.

Let us hope there is some great news out of CES and the GF press party.

I am really happy this^^ guy^^ was wrong about early price action.

Domestic auto stocks up
GF producing cells
Tesla Motors Price Target Announced at $280.00/Share by Guggenheim

Nice!

Dumped the protective puts at 9:30.

 

[Drax7]

The ultimate disrupter is a low cost high density cell manufactured in high volume.
The switch has been flipped.
In simple terms, This should be the start of the next bull phase.

 

[AlMc]

Did we decide that the GF press/investor 'party' is live streamed?

 

[erthquake]

FYI: we are now past Mark S's claimed $225 short basis. Brace for the twitter rants to intensify!

I ignore him, so I brace for nothing!

 

[NOLA_Mike]

I ignore him. So I brace for nothing!

I do too because I can't stand reading his drivel. But I do enjoy the occasional update from others here when this happens:

 

[SBenson]

I, on the other hand, don't believe HUD will ever show up in the Model S. I think it would take a fairly major redesign of the whole upper dash area without it looking like an aftermarket add on and this would be too big a distraction from Model 3 ramp up. I believe HUD will show up first on Model 3.

But, I could be very wrong...

Mike

Would you ever expect anything major cool positive thing, to come straight into C-class without making it to S-class first?

Additionally, adding new tech to S/X first is a risk mitigation strategy for 3.

There will be absolutely nothing new in 3 that is not already in S or X by the time 3 rolls off the line. You can bet on that!

3 will be a cheapened version of S. Not a cooler/better version.

 

[jgillispie]

If they had missed guidance without any significant factors I would have considered it more of a problem. Missing by only 4% with the AP2 HW change going into effect is a win to me.

With the large number of outstanding deliveries and no major changes that we know of for Q1 regarding S/X production, I think it's a very positive outlook for Q1.

 

[Yuri_G]

I think my point was missed. This board continues to be an echo chamber only for those who want to see the positive aspect in everything this company does as if they can do no wrong and that all of their misses are the fault of outside forces. I got 7 dislikes (the most for any post that I have ever made) because I said that they pretty much pulled the plug on all the demand levers this last quarter save a price reduction. That warrants 7 dislikes? Please tell me, what other demand levers are there near term? the hope for a HUD?

I follow up with a post saying that as CEO EM better darn well care about capital appreciation for the other owners of the company, we the shareholders. Once you go public, it is no longer your personal piggy bank for other pet projects and clearly, he does care about the share price both short and long term, as he should. To speak as if EM can do no wrong, and to not call out and instead make excuses only perpetuates this. Tesla is no longer a startup, it is approaching a $40billion market cap. If they make promises or projections and they fail to deliver they should be held accountable, especially on an investors board. I just do not understand the hate/animosity that is spewed toward people with a contrary view that it is not all roses right now, but there is a ton of hope in the Model 3 if they execute properly. Is there not room for a moderate view?

clearly the market was not too spooked by this miss, but it was a miss by all definitions and understanding of the word.

You got the disagrees because you are making huge assumptions about demand and what Elon Musk thinks about the share price. You are putting words in his mouth and unless you can prove he has stated that he cares about the short term share price you will have people, me included, that dispute your assumption.

Also, all demand levers will not be pulled until Tesla starts advertising.

 

[Irishjugg]

Could not disagree more. As the CEO of a publicly traded company he darn well better care about profits for his shareholders and an increasing SP. Certainly his BOD better. You can make the argument that he has longer term goals than many of the analysts do. Clearly though, the end of quarter shenanigans of rushing out cars, stealth discounts and demand levers shows that he is worried about the share prices or we would not be gearing for the end of quarter panic 4 times a year. If that was not the case, there would be no prioritization which cars to ship at EOQ and there would be no care wether it was a MS60 or P100D right...after all he just wants to save the world. I laud EM's accomplishments and his contributions to our world. But if Tesla is not about making money they never should have gone public. Certainly his investors expect it as evidence by the panic on this board when we have some wide swings. I am invested in Tesla because in the end, I DO expect to make money and I want a CEO who wants to make ME money too!

Then you have invested in the wrong company.

Musk has been perfectly clear for literally years that short term sick price is irrelevant to him, and more accurately something he considers a nuisance and nothing more. While he may attempt to engineer a higher price temporarily to raise money, that is the extent of his give a *sugar*. He is attempting to build a trillion dollar market cap renewable energy company with the ultimate goal of getting enough capital to ensure he can afford the human permanent colonization of Mars.

If you want consistent quarterly returns or stability you should find a different holding (though this year/2 years should be quite a good return).

 

[andrewt3000]

So.... the GF opening. obviously big news.... good news. but tesla will now start taking depreciation on the GF which will affect revenue... (not just cash flow). so any projections? obviously depreciation will be up... hopefully there will be massive increases in Tesla Energy revenues to offset the depreciation.

 

[dalalsid]

HUD = driver assist. No need for HUD in full self driving. So I don't see why Tesla needs an HUD at all except maybe to watch movies??

 

[SunCatcher]

At a time when President-elect Donald Trump has taken to Twitter to skewer manufacturers for moving jobs to Mexico or China, Tesla sits apart as an all-American carmaker, battery maker, and solar producer. About 95 percent of a Tesla’s components are made in the U.S. and 25,000 of the company's 30,000 employees are based there. Musk, who visited Trump recently in New York City, was named to a strategy group to advise the new President.

Tesla Flips the Switch on the Gigafactory

One interesting takeaway from this news is that by bringing cell production to the U.S., Model 3 will likely become the world's most American-made vehicle. After Tesla brings cell production from Japan to the U.S. for its vehicles, the percentage of content in its vehicles made in the U.S. could jump from around 55% to around 90% -- a figure that would give Model 3 more American-made content than any other vehicle.

http://www.fool.com/investing/2017/01/04/teslas-gigafactory-...

 

[Fallenone]

So.... the GF opening. obviously big news.... good news. but tesla will now start taking depreciation on the GF which will affect revenue... (not just cash flow). so any projections? obviously depreciation will be up... hopefully there will be massive increases in Tesla Energy revenues to offset the depreciation.

Tesla has been taking depreciation on the GF for some quarters already, hence the negative margins on TE.

 

[jgillispie]

Would you ever expect anything major cool positive thing, to come straight into C-class without making it to S-class first?

Additionally, adding new tech to S/X first is a risk mitigation strategy for 3.

There will be absolutely nothing new in 3 that is not already in S or X by the time 3 rolls off the line. You can bet on that!

I for one hope there is no HUD for M3. Maybe later but they need to keep the "hubris" out of mind for now and work on meeting production demands. Keep it simple(by Tesla standards).

 

[NOLA_Mike]

Would you ever expect anything major cool positive thing, to come straight into C-class without making it to S-class first?

I have yet to see Tesla do anything just because Mercedes does it.

Additionally, adding new tech to S/X first is a risk mitigation strategy for 3.

There will be absolutely nothing new in 3 that is not already in S or X by the time 3 rolls off the line. You can bet on that!

3 will be a cheapened version of S. Not a cooler/better version.

I won't be betting on it, but thank you. I'm fully aware you could be correct, but at this point in time I don't agree.

Mike

 

[dalalsid]

We have confirmation that cell production began!

Tesla Flips the Switch on the Gigafactory

The chart of battery demand in this article is interesting. It basically has EV demand in 2019 = Tesla demand at roughly 35GWh i.e. nobody else will be making EVs in volume

 

[W84M3]

HUD = driver assist. No need for HUD in full self driving. So I don't see why Tesla needs an HUD at all except maybe to watch movies??

Even application for FSD cars

Show estimated time/miles to arrival, current cost on Tesla Network (?), customer profile & preferences (streaming own music), current speed, etc etc..

 

[SBenson]

I for one hope there is no HUD for M3. Maybe later but they need to keep the "hubris" out of mind for now and work on meeting production demands. Keep it simple(by Tesla standards).

HUD will make it simpler and cheaper actually.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3975416-tesla-model-3-wins-innovative-simplicity

 

[Bobfitz1]

We have confirmation that cell production began!

Tesla Flips the Switch on the Gigafactory

Included in the Bloomberg article are two charts. One forecasts Tesla battery cost in $/Kwh over next four years with the cost forecast for various competitors. I don't know if what is shown is reasonable for other companies shown, but does anyone on the forum believe that Ford, starting from nothing at start of 2017 will have batteries only $20 more per Kwh than Tesla by 2020? That seems ludicrous and makes me wonder who came up with the projection and how.

A second chart shows projected ramp up of battery demand over the next 7 years. The chart shows lower and slower ramp of batteries used for energy storage over that period than seems likely to me. Does anyone watching how TE is likely to open up market for battery energy storage in coming years agree?