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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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Tesla wins fight over auto dealers’ communications in Michigan – we might get to see some secrets

"They have been trying to get the communications from three specific auto dealers and today, a judge denied an appeal from those dealerships, which should force them to turn over their communications to Tesla’s legal team."

I suspect that the federal court in Michigan will rule in favor of Tesla, just as a state court recently did in Missouri. Dealerships were foolish to take on little Tesla, for whom they really did not want to sell low maintenance electric cars. This may mark the beginning of the end for the auto dealership model.

Strangling Innovation: Tesla vs. 'Rent Seekers'
 
Even if Buffett (or anyone else) does not understand TSLA stock, that should not prevent him from having his companies consider the purchase of Tesla semi trucks.

Berkshire Hathaway's sub units are decentralized. There are many managers, each one is in charge of one company. They don't need to get Buffett's approval for day to day operation. Most likely some managers will lease Tesla's Semis.

Based on the reported Semi reservations, I see the Semi reservation to remain below 0.5% of total number of Semis on the road. Up to 15,000 reservations, probably much less than that.
 
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WHAT? Bear Narrative?

[...]

It was ME in 2016 calling bull**** on these numbers -- posting what you just posted -- while it was those on this board accusing me of spreading FUD... and here we are...

Oh, correction. 500,000 annual run rate is 125,000/quarter. There's no way he was saying they hope to reach 500,000 run rate at some point in 2018 and they would build up to 200,000 in 2017. The only logical conclusion one can make is that he was talking about run rate for the 100,000 to 200,000 comment.

120 cars in a parking lot.

Of course, you would have to know how many of these cars are moving through each day. Is it 120/day? That implies 800+/week... or definitely that automated production has started. So it isn't just that there are 120 cars sitting there...
 
WHAT? Bear Narrative?

this is completely unreal. this board goes from "woh... did he just say 200k in 2017... that's going to jack the SP up for sure!"... to "this kind of bear narrative"... dude... just 9 months ago people on this board were talking about 100k in 2017... just 3 months ago you guys were talking about 35k... WHERE DO YOU THINK THOSE NUMBERS CAME FROM?

TESLA UPDATES: Elon Musk: up to 200k Model 3s by end of 2017
Tesla wants to make up to 200,000 Model 3s in the second half of 2017
Tesla May Build 200,000 Model 3 Cars By End Of 2017 - Gas 2
https://jalopnik.com/tesla-is-now-gunning-to-produce-half-a-million-cars-ann-1774805496
Elon Musk Gives Update on Tesla Model 3
Forbes Welcome
Musk Thinks Tesla Could Build Up to 200,000 Model 3s by the End of 2017

It was ME in 2016 calling bull**** on these numbers -- posting what you just posted -- while it was those on this board accusing me of spreading FUD... and here we are...

120 cars in a parking lot.

Congratulations! You listed 7 links and not a single one from this board to support your shouted claim...
Please, do not equate the entire board with 1 overly optimistic member (ValueAnalyst, I believe she was the only one who expected so many model 3 deliveries this year).
 
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WHAT? Bear Narrative?

this is completely unreal. this board goes from "woh... did he just say 200k in 2017... that's going to jack the SP up for sure!"... to "this kind of bear narrative"... dude... just 9 months ago people on this board were talking about 100k in 2017... just 3 months ago you guys were talking about 35k... WHERE DO YOU THINK THOSE NUMBERS CAME FROM?

TESLA UPDATES: Elon Musk: up to 200k Model 3s by end of 2017
Tesla wants to make up to 200,000 Model 3s in the second half of 2017
Tesla May Build 200,000 Model 3 Cars By End Of 2017 - Gas 2
https://jalopnik.com/tesla-is-now-gunning-to-produce-half-a-million-cars-ann-1774805496
Elon Musk Gives Update on Tesla Model 3
Forbes Welcome
Musk Thinks Tesla Could Build Up to 200,000 Model 3s by the End of 2017

It was ME in 2016 calling bull**** on these numbers -- posting what you just posted -- while it was those on this board accusing me of spreading FUD... and here we are...

120 cars in a parking lot.

You keep saying Elon says stuff that does not come to pass and this bad.. but you never explain why its bad. Doesnt seem to be bad for the stock that has doubled over the last year. It doesnt seem to impact Telsa's ability to raise money. Lastly, we all believe you are a paid FUDster, can you confirm or deny? My guess is that you cannot as it would end your day job as a FUDster.
 
VW exhaust gate:
VW globally recalling 57 600 Touareg vehicles with 3.0l TDI diesel ICE as these engines have two defeat devices (link).

Translation:

The Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA) has detected two prohibited defeat devices in the VW Touareg. These are vehicles with the Euro 6 approved 3.0 TDI engine, which was developed by Audi. The KBA has ordered a recall of 57,600 cars worldwide. A three-liter turbo diesel with six cylinders continues to cause trouble for the VW Group. As early as July, Porsche had to recall 22,000 Cayenne models across Europe, 7,500 of them in Germany, equipped with this engine developed by Audi. Now it hits the core brand Volkswagen. The Flensburg Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA) pointed in the review of the VW Touareg in this engine equal to two inadmissible defeat devices. For this reason, the authority ordered a recall of 57,600 vehicles worldwide, of which 25,800 in Germany, on 8 December. These are exclusively cars that are certified according to the Euro 6 emission standard and therefore should have a maximum nitrogen oxide emissions of 80 milligrams per kilometer. According to the KBA, in these vehicles, a function that should reduce the pollutants by warming up the exhaust system, while during the standardized test bench measurement. In real traffic, on the other hand, the function is largely switched off. In addition, in vehicles with SCR catalytic converter, which is supposed to purify the exhaust gases of toxic nitrogen oxides, its effectiveness has been inadmissibly suspended. SCR catalysts use Adblue, a urea solution that neutralizes nitrogen oxides in diesel exhaust. However, the reviewed VW Touareg had injected Adblue only to a limited extent - which, according to the company, is only the case when the fluid runs out and the corresponding warning light comes on. Volkswagen admitted more than two years ago that it had manipulated diesel exhaust emissions through software. Of these, around eleven million vehicles are affected worldwide.
 
Please leave those invisible friends alone...
I used to be on the other side of the fence trolling the trolls back reacting to their idiocy and sometimes responding with a well thought out argument debunking their toddler like statements. I have seen the light, and it is not worth it. Any attention they get is good attention in their eyes.
 
Please leave those invisible friends alone...

Please, accept my sincere apologies for polluting the board with my reply to a ghost not seen by the majority.

I used to have these ghosts in the list that is not to be named (~voldemort ref), but I had to wade through a lot of posts that did not seem to make sense as they lacked context. Then I would click "show ignored content" and saw what they responded to and it made sense. After many of these iterations I decided to empty my list, thinking that it would be more efficient to soft-ignore posts along with their replies (as it then becomes clear which posts are replies to ignorables).
Looks like, this method does not work, now I am contributing to the same problem.
I promise I will restrain myself in the future.
 
Congratulations! You listed 7 links and not a single one from this board to support your shouted claim...
Please, do not equate the entire board with 1 overly optimistic member (ValueAnalyst, I believe she was the only one who expected so many model 3 deliveries this year).

here you go buddy... you can just start here:

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016
"Advancing 500k goal by 2 years to 2018."

here's some highlights:

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016
@tentonine
"100,000-200,000 Model 3 in 2017!"

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016
@Cattledog
"100K to 200K Model 3 at the end of next year?!!"

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016
@Grendal
"Let's be clear. Tesla is not messing around with the Model 3. You don't say 100K to 200K in 2017 without really being serious about it happening."

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016
@30seconds
"put 1,000,000 cars in your 2020 model"

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016
@JRP3
"Fremont and GF could scale to 1million vehicles!"

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016
@drinkerofkoolaid
"Important Take Aways:

1) 1million vehicle production by 2020.
2) The Gigafactory + Tesla Factory could theoretically produce 1 million vehicles. Elon mentioned this might not be advisable since ultimately 25-30% of sales will come from USA. At a minimum, a factory will be needed in Asia and in Europe.
...
5) Battery storage will be a bigger part of Tesla's business than vehicle sales. Tesla will likely provide an update on this in a few more months.
6) It is possible for Tesla to deliver 200-300k vehicles in 2017.
..."

Let's review the last one... "It is possible for Tesla to deliver 200-300k vehicles in 2017" -- does this sound like "Tesla will show videos of parking lots with 120 cars in it"?

How about #5... did Tesla provide an update on this "in a few more months"?... is "Battery storage will be a bigger part of Tesla's business than vehicle sales"?

Look at this... there's pages of posts on the 2016 thread during the Q1 ER that do NOT say "run rate"... you guys change your story over time and think it's all validated because the stock remains high.

credit should go to @anticitizen13.7 for being a voice of reason during the hubub... but you guys drank that coolaid just like ALL those publishing articles about the CC.

now fast forward to December of 2017... a video of 120 Model 3s in a parking lot gets posted and the stock moves up... from $315?

nothing Elon said in this CC came true... NOTHING. the Model 3 went into production in July?... come on. that was cash raise propaganda.

now let me guess... you guys don't think there'll be 500k in 2018, right?... because Elon said "run rate"?

and @techmaven... you got 9 likes, 6 loves and 3 informatives on your post starting with:

"This common bear narrative is hilarious. It works on the people that don't bother to do their own research."

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016
@techmaven
"100k to 200k Model 3's in 2017!!!
Note that the Bolt is likely to ship only 30k in 2017."

are you talking about run rates there @techmaven?... is my "bear narrative" hilarious?... this is what you thought of Elon's words back then... and today you state: "So... clearly, he's expecting 500,000 run rate in 2018. Not total produced, but run rate. "

is that so... was "run rate" clear?... because to YOU it wasn't... of course... now it is though, right?

what a bunch of silly bears... what did we know back then.
 
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